Surprise Attack : The Victim's Perspective.
by
Kam, Ephraim.
Title
:
Surprise Attack : The Victim's Perspective.
Author
:
Kam, Ephraim.
ISBN
:
9780674039292
Personal Author
:
Kam, Ephraim.
Physical Description
:
1 online resource (304 pages)
Contents
:
Contents -- Foreword by Thomas C. Schelling -- Preface, 2004: Old Patterns, New Lessons -- Introduction -- Part I: The Components of Surprise Attack -- 1. The Essence of Surprise Attack -- Reaction to Disasters and Warnings -- Aspects of Erroneous Estimates -- The Strategic Warning -- Surprise and Military Preparedness -- 2. Information and Indicators -- Quality of Intelligence Information -- Early Warning Indicators -- Signal and Noise -- Quantity of Intelligence Information -- 3. Intentions and Capabilities -- Inference and Difficulties in Estimating Intentions -- The Enemy's Conceptual Framework -- Risk Taking by the Enemy -- Estimating Capabilities -- Part II: Judgmental Biases and Intelligence Analysis -- 4. Conceptions and Incoming Information -- The Set of Conceptions -- The Persistence of Conceptions -- Assimilating Information -- Information and Expectations -- Treating Discrepant Information -- Cognitive Biases and Overconfidence -- 5. The Process of Analysis -- Prediction and Intelligence Analysis -- Stages of Intelligence Analysis -- Approaches for Generating and Evaluating Hypotheses -- Analogies and Learning from History -- Evaluating Incoming Information -- Choosing among Alternative Hypotheses -- External Obstacles to Perception -- Changing a View -- Part III: The Environment -- 6. The Analyst and the Small Group -- The Other Opinion -- Groupthink -- Pressures for Conformity -- The Leader and the Expert -- Group Risk Taking -- 7. Organizational Obstacles -- The Military as an Organization -- Rivalry, Coordination, and Communication -- Intrinsic Problems in the Intelligence Organization -- Military Men and Surprise Attack -- 8. Intelligence and Decision Makers -- Decision Makers and Intelligence Production -- Commitment to a Policy -- How Decision Makers Affect the Intelligence Process -- Decision Makers and Surprise Attack.
Conclusion: Is Surprise Attack Inevitable? -- The Complexity of the Problem -- Why Safeguards Usually Fail -- War without Surprise? -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Index.
Local Note
:
Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2017. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
Subject Term
:
Electronic books. -- local.
International relations.
Military art and science.
Military history, Modern -- 20th century.
Preemptive attack (Military science).
Surprise (Military science).
Genre
:
Electronic books.
Electronic Access
:
Library | Material Type | Item Barcode | Shelf Number | Status |
---|
IYTE Library | E-Book | 1308696-1001 | U163 | Ebrary E-Books |