Making Climate Forecasts Matter -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- MAKING CLIMATE FORECASTS MATTER -- Summary -- POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION -- DISSEMINATION OF CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION -- CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATIC VARIATIONS AND OF CLIMATE FORECASTS -- 1 Climate Variability, Climate Forecasting, and Society -- CLIMATE VARIATION AND SOCIETY -- Use of Climate Knowledge to Improve Well-Being -- When Climate Becomes Hazardous -- Climate Sensitivity and Vulnerability -- The Potential Usefulness of Climate Forecasts -- STRUCTURE OF THIS BOOK -- 2 Climate Forecasting and Its Uses -- WEATHER AND CLIMATE -- HOW SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL CLIMATE FORECASTS ARE MADE -- The Weather Forecasting Paradigm -- What Is Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasting? -- Why Is Climate Predictable? -- How Have Climate Forecasts Been Made Previously? -- How Are the Forecasts Made by Numerical Models? -- Which Quantities Are Forecast? -- How Are the Forecasts Evaluated? -- How Good Are the Forecasts? -- Problems and Prospects for Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Prediction -- TOWARD USABLE KNOWLEDGE -- From Tropical Pacific SST to Other Quantities -- Uses of ENSO Nowcasts -- Specific ENSO Forecast Needs-Time and Space Resolution -- Using ENSO Forecasts -- Possible New Directions in Climate Forecasting -- Non-ENSO Bases for Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts -- The Potential to Develop Leading Climate Indicators -- Processes for Identifying Usable Knowledge -- FINDINGS -- 3 Coping with Seasonal-to-Interannual Climatic Variation -- COPING IN WEATHER-SENSITIVE SECTORS -- Agriculture -- Fishery Management -- Forests and Other Ecosystems -- Water Supply and Flood Management -- Human Health -- Other Weather-Sensitive Sectors -- INSTITUTIONS FOR COPING WITH CLIMATE VARIABILITY -- Disaster Insurance and Reinsurance -- Emergency Preparedness and Response.

Market Mechanisms -- FINDINGS -- 4 Making Climate Forecast Information More Useful -- USEFUL INFORMATION THAT CLIMATE FORECASTS MIGHT PROVIDE -- RESPONSES TO PAST CLIMATE PREDICTIONS -- Drought Forecasts in the Yakima Valley -- ENSO-based Forecasts in Northeast Brazil, 1991-1992 and 1996 -- The Credibility of Famine Early Warning Systems -- INDIRECT SOURCES OF INSIGHT INTO RESPONSES TO CLIMATE FORECASTS -- Beliefs About Weather and Climate -- Human Information Processing and Climate Information -- Organizational Responses to New Information -- Insights from Analogous Types of Information Transmission -- General Principles for Designing Information Programs -- Alternative Models for Designing Information Programs -- FINDINGS -- 5 Measuring the Consequences of Climate Variability and Forecasts -- ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIATIONS -- A Conceptual Model of the Effects of Climate Variability -- Current Scientific Capability -- Estimating Biophysical Impacts That Constrain Human Systems -- Research Based on Observations of Decision Making -- Simulations of Decision Making -- Challenges in Estimating the Impacts of Climate Variability -- ESTIMATING THE VALUE OF CLIMATE FORECASTS -- What Kinds of Benefit Can Climate Forecasts Provide? -- A Conceptual Approach to Estimating the Value of Forecasts -- Current Scientific Capability in Valuing Climate Forecasts -- Research Based on the Use of Actual Climate Forecasts -- Simulations of Climate Forecast Value -- Challenges in Estimating the Value of Forecasts -- FINDINGS -- 6 Scientific Priorities -- FINDINGS -- Climate Forecasting and Its Uses -- Coping with Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variation -- The Potential of Climate Forecasts -- Measuring the Consequences of Climate Variability and Forecasts -- General -- SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS -- Potential Benefits of Climate Forecast Information.

Improved Dissemination of Forecast Information -- Consequences of Climatic Variability and of Forecasts -- The Value of Studying Past Climate Fluctuations and Forecasts -- References -- About the Authors -- Index.