Assessing the predictive limits of economics -- Recent performance of economic forecasts -- A historical perspective on economic forecast performance -- Forecast performance in natural sciences -- Understanding the predictive limits of economics -- Predictability of complex systems -- The quality of data -- Expectations and reflexiveness -- Sensitive dependence on initial conditions -- Experiment and simulation -- Unrealistic-assumption explanations -- Living with the predictive limits of economics -- Consequences for traditional decision making -- Rational decision making under uncertainty and ignorance -- Post-normal science.