Primer on Fiscal Analysis in Oil-Producing Countries.

Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Assessing The Macro-Fiscal Stance -- A. A Multiple Indicator Approach -- B. Using the Non-Oil Balance Concept in Practice -- III. Managing Revenue Volatility and Ensuring Macro-Stability -- A. Macro-Fiscal Consequences of Oil Revenue Volatility -- B. Managing Oil Revenue Volatility -- IV. Long-Term Sustainability and Uncertainty -- A. The Permanent Oil Income Model -- B. Addressing Uncertainty -- V. Conclusion -- Table -- 1. Nigeria: Federal Government Operations -- Figures -- 1. Primary/Non-Oil Primary Balance and Oil Price -- 2. Oil Producing Countries: Selected Fiscal Indicators -- 3. Oil Producing Countries: Oil Vs. Non-Oil Revenue -- 4. Inflation and Asset Prices in OPCs -- 5. Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE: Selected Economic Indicators -- 6. Coverage of Fiscal Statistics in Oil and Non-Oil Producing Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia -- 7. An Example of a Permanent Oil Income Model versus Bird-in-Hand -- Boxes -- 1. Assessing the Direction of Fiscal Policy by Changes in the Non-Oil Primary Balance -- 2. Non-oil fiscal indicators in Nigeria and Yemen -- 3. Impact of Past Oil Booms and Busts on the Economies of Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE -- 4. Petroleum Product Subsidies in OPC -- 5. Application of POIM to OPC -- 6. The Role of MTFFs in Managing Oil Revenue Uncertainty -- Appendices -- I: Approaches to Defining the Non-Oil Balance -- II: Special Fiscal Institutions -- References.