Cover -- Half-title -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- Figures -- Tables -- Foreword -- Dedication -- Preface -- Part I Framework -- Introduction -- Why stress unemployment? -- Modelling capitalist development -- 1 Economic development and economic performance -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Development or performance? -- 3 Institutions and institutional change -- 4 Some benefits -- 5 What drives the system? -- 6 Selecting components of the economic structure -- 7 Evidence -- 8 Similar development patterns, different performances -- 9 Historical laws and predictions -- 10 What can we learn from studying the long run? -- 11 Looking ahead -- 2 The stylized facts -- 1 The stylized facts -- 1.1 Unemployment and growth patterns -- 1.2 Comparative growth and unemployment performance in the golden age -- 1.3 Unbalanced growth -- 2 Modelling dynamic processes in the absence of structural change -- 2.1 The basic neoclassical growth model -- 2.2 The AK growth model -- 2.3 Some shortcomings -- 3 Modelling unemployment -- 3.1 Attributing unemployment to shocks -- 3.2 Voluntary versus involuntary unemployment -- 3.3 Classical versus Keynesian unemployment -- 4 Measuring unemployment -- 5 Incarceration and the unemployment rate -- 6 Conclusions -- 3 The neoclassical analysis of unemployment -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The neoclassical theory of equilibrium unemployment -- 3 Some simple models -- 4 Full employment rates of unemployment: an evaluation -- 5 High rates of unemployment: an evaluation -- 6 Involuntary but classical unemployment -- 6.1 Can the real wage be reduced? -- 6.2 Is a reduction of the real wage necessary? -- 7 Measurement without theory -- 8 What remains of Phillips curve analysis? -- 9 A variable-coefficient Phillips curve -- 10 Starting over -- 4 An extended Keynesian model -- 1 Introduction.

2 Rapid growth and low unemployment: an extended Keynesian perspective -- 3 Responses to aggregate demand when the capital stock and technology are fixed -- 4 Responses to aggregate demand when the capital stock and technology are variable -- 5 Aggregate demand and the transformation of output -- 6 Aggregate demand, supply elasticities and the redistribution of capital and labour -- 7 The elasticity of supply of inventions and innovations -- 8 Externalities -- 9 Explaining macroeconomic malfunction -- 10 Conclusions -- 5 Institutions and power -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Institutions and organizations -- 3 The impact of institutions -- 4 The cognitive function of institutions -- 5 Legitimizing power and mediating power conflicts -- 6 Efficiency theories of institutions -- 7 An evaluation -- 8 Power and institutions -- 9 The structure of collective bargaining -- 10 Avoiding class warfare -- 11 Institutional features of the golden age -- 12 Institutions and power as determinants of unemployment -- 13 Conclusions -- 6 Evolutionary and hysteretic processes -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Modelling capitalist development: institutions in the short and long run -- 3 The process of interaction -- 3.1 A Keynesian mechanism of institutional change -- 3.2 Feedback effects -- 4 Evolutionary processes: some comparisons -- 5 Hysteretic processes with exogenous origins -- 6 Three routes of institutional change -- 7 Concepts -- 8 Intertemporal analysis -- 9 Application -- 9.1 Interpreting changes in performance -- 9.2 Institutional change and policy -- 10 Conclusions -- 7 Theories of capitalist development -- 1 Introduction: the political economy tradition -- 2 The long cycle school -- 3 Theories with variable institutional structures -- 3.1 'Old' institutional economics -- 3.2 The régulation school -- 3.3 The social structure of accumulation theory.

4 Evolutionary models: 'mature' Schumpeter -- 5 Concluding remarks -- Part II Explaining the development record -- Modelling the historical record -- The role of institutions -- The choice of techniques -- What lies ahead? -- 8 Understanding the Great Depression -- 1 Introduction -- 2 A non-linear dynamic model -- 3 The ceilings -- 3.1 The ceiling in the capital goods industry -- 3.2 The monetary ceiling -- 4 The relationship between cycle phases -- 5 The absence of ceilings in the 1920s -- 6 Why were the ceilings absent in the 1920s? -- 7 The Great Depression -- 8 Theories of the Great Depression -- 9 Did monetary or non-monetary forces dominate? -- 9.1 The forces initiating the downturn -- 9.2 Forces magnifying the decline -- 9.3 Could correct monetary policy have saved the day? -- 10 Technology as the source of structural change -- 11 Conclusions -- Appendix -- The post-war recessions -- The relationship between cycle phases -- 9 Foundations of the golden age -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Setting the scene -- 3 Labour: rising power and changing beliefs -- 3.1 Trends in relative power: an overview -- 3.2 The inter-war period -- 3.3 The war years and reconstruction -- 4 Capital's role in the new order -- 4.1 Capital's special function -- 4.2 The new order -- 5 Government: acceptance of interventionism -- 6 The post-war compromise in outline -- 6.1 Domestic developments: Western Europe, the UK and Japan -- 6.2 The USA and the lack of compromise -- 7 The USA as the new hegemon -- 7.1 US trade and payments policy -- 7.2 The Cold War, the European Recovery Program, and some US concessions -- 7.3 The ERP and European domestic policy -- 7.4 Productivity policy -- 7.5 The new capitalism -- 8 The routes of institutional change -- 9 Avoiding the constraints -- 9.1 Demand-determined growth -- 9.2 Supply constraints -- 9.3 The inflation constraint.

9.4 The balance of payments constraint -- 9.5 Political constraints -- 10 Conclusion -- 10 The golden age -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Growth in the golden age: some comparative data -- 3 The sources of growth -- 3.1 Investment -- 3.2 Export growth -- 3.3 Unemployment -- 3.4 Catching up, convergence and the technology gap -- 3.5 Output and employment structure -- 4 A model of structural change and growth -- 4.1 The basic model -- 4.2 The stage of development and productivity growth -- 4.3 The open economy model and deviations from the common growth path -- 5 The sources of growth: the formal model -- 6 The estimation model and the data -- 7 Empirical results -- 8 Accounting for growth in the golden age -- 9 Conclusion -- Appendix: a model of growth and transformation -- 11 Unemployment -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Evidence of decline -- 3 Inflation and the policy response: the record -- 4 Mainstream views -- 5 An institutional explanation -- 6 Success and the perception of unfairness as linkages -- 7 Inflation before the 1990s - a visual summary -- 7.1 The emergence of an inflationary bias -- 7.2 Hysteresis in the unemployment rate -- 8 Why was the inflation fight so long and costly? -- 9 Unemployment and inflation in the 1990s -- 10 The routes of institutional change -- 11 Concluding remarks -- Part III Political control of the economy -- 12 Unemployment and the distribution of power -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The trend in the relative power of labour and some of its impacts -- 3 A rudimentary theory of power -- 4 Power, social bargains and positive feedback -- 4.1 Power and the establishment of social bargains -- 4.2 Rejection of the US model -- 4.3 Positive feedbacks -- 5 Power shifts, neoliberalism and some positive feedbacks -- 5.1 Establishing neoliberalism -- 5.2 Acceptance and reinforcement of the US model -- 6 Globalization and additional positive feedbacks.

7 Globalization and the role of the hegemon -- 8 Keynes and Kalecki on stability -- 9 Conclusions -- 13 A neoliberal future? -- 1 Introduction -- 2 What can we learn from history? -- 3 What of the future? -- 4 A final statement -- Bibliography -- Index.