Cover -- Half-title -- Series-title -- Title -- Copyright -- Dedication -- Contents -- Contributors -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Integrated regional risk assessment and safety management: Challenge from Agenda 21 -- ABSTRACT -- 2.1 INTRODUCTION -- 2.2 REGIONAL SAFETY PLANNING -- 2.2.1 Defining a region -- 2.2.2 Objectives and scope for an IRRASM study -- 2.2.3 Hazard identification -- 2.2.4 A need for prioritization of risks at the regional level -- Van den Brand methodology -- Fuzzy sets approach (ETH Zurich) -- 2.3 ON SOME ORGANIZATIONAL ASPECTS -- 2.4 TECHNIQUES FOR INTERACTIVE DECISION PROCESSES IN IRRASM -- 2.5 THE USE OF DSS FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT STUDIES -- 2.5.1 Decision process and the role of models and tools in IRRASM -- Comment -- 2.5.2 Decision-aiding techniques in use for safety management -- 2.5.3 Overview of decision analysis for IRRASM activities -- 2.5.4 Decision Support Systems and the IRRASM process -- 2.6 THE USE OF GIS TECHNOLOGY FOR IRRASM -- 2.7 THE KOVERS APPROACH -- 2.7.1 KOVERS monographs of dangerous substances -- 2.7.2 KOVERS chemical database -- 2.8 CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- 3 Risk analysis: The unbearable cleverness of bluffing -- ABSTRACT -- 3.1 INTRODUCTION -- 3.2 FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES... -- 3.3 CLIMATE-CHANGE-IMPACT SCENARIOS: FROM BLUFFING TO METABLUFFING -- 3.4 IN PRAISE OF THEORY AND ROBUST RESULTS -- 3.5 A REALITY CHECK -- 3.6 CONCLUSIONS, OR A TALE ABOUT UNKUNKS, KUNKS, AND SKUNKS -- REFERENCES -- 4 Aspects of uncertainty, reliability, and risk in flood forecasting systems incorporating weather radar -- ABSTRACT -- 4.1 INTRODUCTION -- 4.2 UNCERTAINTY IN FLOOD FORECASTS -- 4.2.1 Introduction -- 4.2.2 Rainfall measurement uncertainty -- Effect of network density -- Effect of rainfall intensity -- 4.2.3 Rainfall forecast uncertainty -- 4.2.4 Flood forecast uncertainty.

4.3 RELIABILITY AND SYSTEM COMPLEXITY -- 4.3.1 Introduction -- 4.3.2 The RFFS Information Control Algorithm -- 4.3.3 Data loss, system resilience, and profile data -- 4.4 RISK AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTING -- 4.5 CONCLUSION -- Acknowledgments -- REFERENCES -- 5 Probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting -- ABSTRACT -- 5.1 INTRODUCTION -- 5.1.1 Systems approach to hydrometeorological forecasting -- 5.1.2 Potential benefits of probabilistic forecasts -- 5.2 PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS -- 5.2.1 Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast -- 5.2.2 Probabilistic river stage forecast -- 5.3 PRECIPITATION FORECASTING SYSTEM -- 5.3.1 Forecasting methodology -- 5.3.2 Local climatic guidance -- 5.3.3 Forecast verification -- 5.4 STAGE FORECASTING SYSTEM -- 5.4.1 Precipitation forecast processor -- 5.4.2 River forecasting methodology -- 5.4.3 River climatic guidance -- 5.4.4 River forecast verification -- 5.5 FLOOD WARNING DECISION SYSTEM -- 5.6 CLOSURE -- Acknowledgments -- REFERENCES -- 6 Flood risk management: Risk cartography for objective negotiations -- ABSTRACT -- 6.1 INTRODUCTION -- 6.2 DEFINITIONS AND CONCEPTS -- 6.2.1 First step of a risk model -- 6.2.2 New rules for river management -- 6.3 "INONDABILITÉ" METHOD -- 6.3.1 Vulnerability mapping -- 6.3.2 Hazard mapping -- 6.3.3 Synthetic "inondabilité" maps -- 6.4 NECESSITY AND CONSEQUENCES OF AN OBJECTIVE NEGOTIATION -- 6.4.1 What is to be negotiated? -- 6.4.2 What should be the quantitative base of the negotiation? -- 6.5 CONCLUSIONS -- Acknowledgments -- REFERENCES -- 7 Responses to the variability and increasing uncertainty of climate in Australia -- ABSTRACT -- 7.1 VARIABILITY IN AUSTRALIA'S CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGY -- 7.2 CLIMATE CHANGE -- 7.3 URBAN SYSTEMS -- 7.3.1 Meteorological forecasting -- 7.3.2 Selection of climatic time series for planning -- 7.3.3 Capital works rescheduling.

7.3.4 Water use restrictions -- Types of restriction -- Stochastic analysis -- Economics and social equity of restrictions policies -- Risk trade-offs -- 7.4 IRRIGATION SYSTEMS -- 7.4.1 Overview -- 7.4.2 Stochastic analysis -- 7.4.3 Allocation under conditions of uncertainty -- 7.5 INFRASTRUCTURE ROBUSTNESS -- 7.6 CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- 8 Developing an indicator of a community's disaster risk awareness -- ABSTRACT -- 8.1 INTRODUCTION -- 8.2 THE 1994-95 DROUGHT -- 8.3 MEASURING THE "INVISIBLES" OF SOCIETY -- 8.4 A CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS OF THE DROUGHT-RELATED SOCIAL MESSAGES OF NEWSPAPER ARTICLES -- 8.5 ANALYSIS OF THE OBSERVED WATER SAVING PHENOMENON: ANOTHER EXAMINATION OF THE WORKING HYPOTHESIS -- 8.6 MODELING THE SPRD-WSP TRANSFORMATION MECHANISM: AN ANALOGY OF THE WATER SAVING ACTION USING THE "TANK" MODEL -- 8.7 CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- 9 Determination of capture zones of wells by Monte Carlo simulation -- ABSTRACT -- 9.1 INTRODUCTION -- 9.2 PROBLEMS ARISING IN THE DETERMINISTIC DETERMINATION OF CAPTURE ZONES -- 9.3 DETERMINATION OF A CAPTURE ZONE BY MONTE CARLO SIMULATION -- 9.4 RESULTS -- 9.5 CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- 10 Controlling three levels of uncertainties for ecological risk models -- ABSTRACT -- 10.1 INTRODUCTION -- 10.2 A NEW ALERT MODEL -- 10.2.1 Selected variables -- 10.2.2 The mathematical model -- 10.2.3 Evaluation of uncertainties -- 10.2.4 Estimation of model parameters -- the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm -- 10.2.5 Statistical test for selecting a model -- 10.3 CASE STUDY DESCRIPTION -- 10.3.1 The distribution system in the suburb of Paris -- 10.3.2 The database -- 10.4 RESULTS -- 10.5 DISCUSSION -- 10.5.1 Operational results -- 10.5.2 Limits and perspectives -- 10.6 CONCLUSIONS -- Acknowledgments -- REFERENCES -- 11 Stochastic precipitation-runoff modeling for water yield from a semi-arid forested watershed.

ABSTRACT -- 11.1 INTRODUCTION -- 11.2 STUDY SITE CHARACTERISTICS -- 11.3 MODEL DEVELOPMENT -- 11.3.1 Modeling precipitation patterns -- Temporal precipitation patterns -- Spatial precipitation patterns -- 11.3.2 Construction and roles of water yield model components -- Interception -- Evaporation -- Transpiration -- Infiltration -- Snowmelt -- Runoff -- 11.4 ANALYSIS OF RESULTS -- 11.4.1 Results of precipitation modeling -- Temporal analysis of precipitation events -- Spatial analysis of precipitation events -- 11.4.2 Results of water yield modeling -- 11.5 EVALUATING RISK AND RELIABILITY IN WATER YIELD -- 11.6 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- Acknowledgments -- REFERENCES -- APPENDIX: NOTATION OF SYMBOLS -- 12 Regional assessment of the impact of climate change on the yield of water supply systems -- ABSTRACT -- 12.1 INTRODUCTION -- 12.2 MODEL TIME-STEP FOR REGIONAL ASSESSMENT -- 12.3 DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATOLOGICAL STREAMFLOW MODEL -- 12.3.1 Regional hydroclimatological database -- Streamflow database -- Climate database -- 12.3.2 Regional hydroclimatological regression models of annual streamflow -- Summary of regional hydroclimatological model of annual streamflow -- Model validation -- 12.4 STORAGE-RELIABILITY-RESILIENCE-YIELD RELATIONSHIPS -- 12.5 SENSITIVITY OF WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM BEHAVIOR TO CLIMATE CHANGE -- 12.5.1 Validation of our overall methodology -- 12.5.2 The general sensitivity of water supply yield to changes in climate -- 12.6 CONCLUSIONS -- Acknowledgments -- REFERENCES -- 13 Hydrological risk under nonstationary conditions changing hydroclimatological input -- ABSTRACT -- 13.1 INTRODUCTION -- 13.2 INVESTIGATION OF HISTORICAL SERIES -- 13.3 NONSTATIONARY SCENARIOS -- 13.3.1 Simple alterations -- 13.3.2 Modified time-series models -- 13.3.3 GCM-based scenarios - downscaling -- Stochastic downscaling -- 13.4 HYDROLOGICAL RISKS.

13.4.1 Changes in precipitation -- 13.4.2 Changes in runoff -- 13.5 AN EXAMPLE OF ECOLOGICAL RISK ANALYSIS -- 13.6 CONCLUSIONS -- Acknowledgments -- REFERENCES -- 14 Fuzzy compromise approach to water resources systems planning under uncertainty -- ABSTRACT -- 14.1 INTRODUCTION -- 14.1.1 Displaced ideals -- 14.1.2 Existing applications using fuzzy ideals -- 14.1.3 Fuzzy arithmetic operations -- 14.2 FUZZY COMPROMISE APPROACH -- 14.2.1 Fuzzy distance metrics -- 14.2.2 Selecting acceptable alternatives -- 14.2.3 Weighted center of gravity measure -- 14.2.4 Fuzzy acceptability measure -- 14.2.5 Comparison of ranking methods -- 14.3 EXAMPLES -- 14.3.1 Tisza River example -- 14.3.2 Yugoslavia (system S2) example -- 14.3.3 Yugoslavia (system S1) example -- 14.4 CONCLUSIONS -- Acknowledgments -- REFERENCES -- 15 System and component uncertainties in water resources -- ABSTRACT -- 15.1 INTRODUCTION -- 15.2 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTIES -- 15.3 DIFFERENT MEASURES OF UNCERTAINTIES -- 15.4 METHODS FOR UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS -- 15.4.1 First-order variance estimation method -- 15.4.2 Rosenblueth's and similar Point Estimate (PE) methods -- 15.4.3 Integral transformation techniques -- 15.4.4 Monte Carlo simulation -- 15.5 REMARKS ON UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES -- 15.6 ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF UNCERTAINTIES -- 15.7 CONCLUDING REMARKS -- REFERENCES -- 16 Managing water quality under uncertainty: Application of a new stochastic branch and bound method -- ABSTRACT -- 16.1 INTRODUCTION -- 16.2 ELEMENTS OF A WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT MODEL -- 16.3 A PROBABILISTIC WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT MODEL -- 16.3.1 Reliability -- 16.3.2 Reliability under violation length limit -- 16.3.3 Resiliency -- 16.3.4 Vulnerability -- 16.4 THE STOCHASTIC BRANCH AND BOUND METHOD -- 16.4.1 Reliability bounds -- 16.4.2 Resiliency bounds -- 16.4.3 Vulnerability bounds.

16.4.4 Using multiple scenarios.