PREFACE -- CONTENTS -- FIGURES -- TABLES -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- ABBREVIATIONS -- INTRODUCTION -- FROM OLD CHALLENGES TO NEW -- HOW THIS VOLUME IS ORGANIZED -- PART I. NEW CHALLENGES FOR DEFENSE -- INTRODUCTION TO PART I -- Chapter One DECISIONMAKING FOR DEFENSE -- DECIDING WHAT DECISIONS MUST BE MADE -- DECIDING WHO MAKES THE DECISIONS -- DECIDING HOW TO ALLOCATE RESOURCES -- DECIDING WHAT INVESTMENTS TO MAKE -- ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO DECISIONMAKING -- ALTERNATIVE DECISIONMAKING STYLES -- LOOKING TO THE FUTURE -- Chapter Two RESPONDING TO ASYMMETRIC THREATS -- FROM THE COLD WAR TO THE PRESENT -- EXAMPLES OF ASYMMETRIC THREATS -- HOW WOULD ADVERSARIES SHAPE ASYMMETRIC THREATS? -- THE IMPORTANCE OF SURPRISE AND ANONYMITY -- CHALLENGE AND RESPONSE CYCLES -- THE CHALLENGE OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION -- A FRAMEWORK FOR RESPONDING TO ASYMMETRIC THREATS -- Institutionalization Through Protection -- Institutionalization Through Threat Management -- Internationalization -- CONCLUSIONS -- Chapter Three WHAT INFORMATION ARCHITECTURE FOR DEFENSE? -- WHAT IS ARCHITECTURE? -- The Global Information Grid -- Need There Be Architecture? -- Architecture Follows Culture? -- DoD as an Institution in Its Own League -- ELEMENTS OF ARCHITECTURE -- Collection -- Access -- Presentation -- Networking -- Knowledge Maintenance and Management -- Security -- Interoperability -- Integration -- THE NEED TO THINK NOW -- PART II. COPING WITH UNCERTAINTY -- INTRODUCTION TO PART II -- Chapter Four INCORPORATING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN DEFENSE PLANNING -- MODEST PROPOSITIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE -- REAL REVOLUTIONS ON THE PHYSICAL BATTLEFIELD -- Hitting What Can Be Seen -- From Contingency to Necessity -- The Coming Architecture of Military Organization -- Conventional War, Hyperwar, and Mud Warfare -- FALSE REVOLUTIONS ON THE VIRTUAL BATTLEFIELD -- What Is Information Warfare?.

Electronic Warfare -- Command-and-Control Warfare -- Psychological Operations -- The Ghost in the Machine -- THE LESSON OF SEPTEMBER 11 -- Chapter Five UNCERTAINTY-SENSITIVE PLANNING -- WHY SO MANY SURPRISES? -- CONCEPTUAL STRATEGIC PLANNING -- Uncertainty-Sensitive Strategic Planning -- Operationalizing Strategic Planning in Portfolio-Management Terms -- CAPABILITIES-BASED PLANNING -- Key Features -- Information Technology and Mission-System Analysis -- Multiple Objectives and Measures -- The Concept of a Scenario Space (an Assumptions Space) -- Choices and Resource Allocation -- Chapter Six PLANNING THE FUTURE MILITARY WORKFORCE -- MILITARY HUMAN CAPITAL -- Historical Size, Source, and Composition of the Active Force -- Ongoing Revolutions: Composition, Characteristics, and Attributes -- Looking to the Future -- MANPOWER AND PERSONNEL ANALYSIS -- The Process -- Choosing Among Alternatives, an Example -- Chapter Seven THE SOLDIER OF THE 21st CENTURY -- VISIONS OF THE FUTURE -- Cyber Soldier -- Information Warrior -- Peace Operations -- Rapid Response Force -- Low-Manning Vessels -- Evolutionary Change -- EXPERIENCE OF THE ALL-VOLUNTEER FORCE -- Versatility and Leadership -- Attracting Quality Personnel -- Economic Theories of Compensation -- ISSUES FOR THE FUTURE -- Chapter Eight ADAPTING BEST COMMERCIAL PRACTICES TO DEFENSE -- WHAT IS A BEST COMMERCIAL PRACTICE? -- Examples -- Commercial Practice: Neither Monolithic nor Easy to Define -- Why DoD Should Care -- A BCP That DoD Uses Today: Lean Production -- What About Best Government Practice? -- OPERATIONAL TOTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENT AND BCPs -- Key Benefits of TQM: Links Between Customers and Processes, and Continuous Improvement of Resulting System -- TQM Viewed with Great Suspicion by Many in DoD -- IDENTIFYING BCPs -- Adapting BCPs for Use in DoD.

Structural Differences Between DoD and Most Best Commercial Firms -- An Illustrative Example: Strategic Sourcing as a Basket of BCPs -- BCPs Relevant to DoD's Strategic Goals -- Key Barriers to DoD's Adaptation of Sourcing BCPs -- Insights from Commercial Experience on Overcoming Key Barriers -- PART III. NEW TOOLS FOR DEFENSE DECISIONMAKING -- INTRODUCTION TO PART III -- Chapter Nine EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR MODELING -- EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS -- Definition -- Types of Uncertainty in Modeling -- Types of Exploratory Analysis -- ENABLING EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS -- Using Occam's Razor -- Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling and Model Families -- LESSONS FROM RECENT EXPERIENCE -- Appendix REFLECTING UNCERTAINTY WITH PARAMETERS, AN EXAMPLE -- Chapter Ten USING EXPLORATORY MODELING -- THE NEED FOR EXPLORATORY MODELING -- The Joint Integrated Contingency Model -- Sensitivity Analysis and Exploratory Modeling -- DOING EXPLORATORY MODELING -- THE VALUE OF EXPLORATORY MODELING -- Chapter Eleven ASSESSING MILITARY INFORMATION SYSTEMS -- HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE -- CONTEXT FOR ASSESSING MILITARY INFORMATION SYSTEMS IN THE 21st CENTURY -- ADDITIONAL COMPLICATING AND SUPPORTING FACTORS -- NATO CODE OF BEST PRACTICE -- ADVANCES OVER THE PAST 25 YEARS -- RESIDUAL CHALLENGES: A NEW AGENDA -- Chapter Twelve THE "DAY AFTER" METHODOLOGY AND NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYSIS -- THE METHODOLOGY IN BRIEF -- APPLICATIONS AND EXERCISE DEVELOPMENT -- Strategic Information Warfare -- Cyberpayments and Money Laundering -- Comparison of the Two Implementations of the Methodology -- The Day After and Analytic Independence -- THE VALUE OF THE DAY AFTER -- Chapter Thirteen USING ELECTRONIC MEETING SYSTEMS TO AID DEFENSE DECISIONS -- ELECTRONIC MEETING SYSTEMS -- PRIORITIZING NAVAL PROGRAMS: AN EXAMPLE OF AN EMS IN USE -- The Challenge -- Overview of Methodology.

Other Possible Uses -- AFTERWORD -- INDEX -- ABOUT THE AUTHORS.