Cover -- Half-title -- Title -- Copyright -- Dedication -- Contents -- Foreword -- Preface -- Introduction -- THE LAY OF THE LAND -- HOW THE IDEAS AND PAPERS EMERGED -- CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION AND OMISSIONS -- PART ONE THE HISTORY, THEORY, AND MEASUREMENT OF PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH -- STUDYING GROWTH AT THE FRONTIER -- LABOR PRODUCTIVITY AND MULTIFACTOR PRODUCTIVITY -- INTERPRETING THE ACCELERATIONS AND SLOWDOWN -- THE "ONE BIG WAVE" AND THE "GREAT INVENTIONS" -- CONCEPTS OF INVESTMENT AND TECHNICAL CHANGE -- CAPITAL DEEPENING RESPONDS TO TECHNICAL CHANGE -- HOW CAN WE MEASURE THE PREFERRED CONCEPT OF CAPITAL? -- IS THERE A FEEDBACK FROM LABOR MARKETS TO PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH? -- CAN A SINGLE INDUSTRY BE TIED TO THE POST-1972 SLOWDOWN? -- CONCLUSION ABOUT THEMES IN PART ONE -- References -- CHAPTER 1 Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past? -- 1.1 DISSECTING THE REVIVAL IN U.S. PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH -- 1.2 HOW THE GREAT INVENTIONS HELPED US ESCAPE FROM THE BAD OLD DAYS -- Life in the "Bad Old Days" -- The Great Inventions -- 1.3 THE DECLINING COST OF COMPUTER POWER AND THE PERVASIVENESS OF DIMINISHING RETURNS -- 1.4 THE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SIDES OF THE INTERNET -- 1.5 CONCLUSION -- References -- CHAPTER 2 Interpreting the "One Big Wave" in U.S. Long-term Productivity Growth -- 2.1 EXPLAINING THE "BIG WAVE" -- Plan of the Chapter -- 2.2 BASIC DATA ON OUTPUT AND INPUTS -- Data Sources and their Main Features -- MFP Growth and the Output-Capital Ratio Puzzle -- 2.3 COMPOSITION ADJUSTMENTS FOR LABOR AND CAPITAL -- The Post-War Impact of Changing Input Composition -- Changes in Labor Composition, 1913-50 -- Changes in Labor Composition, 1870-1913 -- 2.4 ISSUES IN THE MEASUREMENT OF CAPITAL -- Adjustment for Changing Composition -- Variable Lifetimes -- Omitted Capital.

2.5 SUMMARY OF INPUT DATA REVISIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR MFP -- Corrections to Labor and Capital Input Data -- Implications for MFP Growth -- Implications for the Output-Capital Ratio -- 2.6 SUBSTANTIVE HYPOTHESES -- The Great Inventions -- Other Substantive Hypotheses -- Immigration and the Codependence of Productivity and Real Wages -- Real Wage Convergence and Divergence -- Growing Openness to Trade -- "Heavy" and "Light" Technology and the Upsurge in the Equipment-Structures Ratio -- 2.7 CONCLUSION -- Data Appendix -- Nonfarm Nonhousing Business Output -- Nonfarm Nonhousing Business Labor Hours -- Nonfarm Nonhousing Business Capital -- GOPO (Government-Owned, Privately Operated) Capital -- References -- CHAPTER 3 The Disappearance of Productivity Change -- 3.1 TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY AND THE SOCIAL RETURN TO RESEARCH -- A. The Model -- B. The Kendrick-Solow Method -- C. The Griliches-Jorgenson Method -- 3.2 THE TREATMENT OF EDUCATION -- 3.3 ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE AND TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN A HYPOTHETICAL ECONOMY -- A. Outline of the Model -- 1. The Effective Input of Labor -- 2. Technology in the Consumption Sector -- 3. Technology in the Investment Goods Sector -- B. Total Factor Productivity and the Contribution of Advances in Knowledge -- 1. Growth in Economies A and B -- 2. The Measurement of Output -- 3. The Measurement of Input -- 4. The Social Rate of Return to Research and Physical Capital -- 3.4 SIMULATION RESULTS -- A. Embodied and Disembodied Change -- 1. Constant Returns -- 2. Increasing Returns -- B. Disembodied and Embodied Change Introduced Separately -- C. Other Examples -- D. Effect of a Higher Saving Rate -- 3.5 CONCLUSION: SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS -- A. Summary -- 1. The Degree of Returns to Scale -- 2. The True Growth Rate of Capital Input -- 3. Research Compensation in the Capital and Labor Shares -- B. Implications.

References -- CHAPTER 4 The Concept of Capital -- 4.1 POINTS OF AGREEMENT AND DISAGREEMENT -- 4.2 THE CORRECT MEASURE OF CAPITAL AND ITS VALIDATION BY USED ASSET PRICES -- THE OTHER METHODS FOR MEASURING CAPITAL -- 4.3 PROBLEMS OF IMPLEMENTING THE CORRECT CAPITAL MEASURE -- 4.4 THE CRITERION OF CONSUMPTION FOREGONE -- 4.5 CONCLUSION: IS HALF A LOAF BETTER THAN NONE? -- References -- CHAPTER 5 Is There a Tradeoff between Unemployment and Productivity Growth? -- The Transatlantic Divide -- Contribution of this Chapter -- 5.1 BASIC ANALYTICS -- The UPT Schedule -- The Standard Labor Market Model -- Wage-Setting Shocks -- Energy Price Shocks -- 5.2 AN EXAMPLE: THE MINIMUM WAGE -- Data and Theory -- Literature on the Effects of the Minimum Wage -- 5.3 MECHANISMS -- Shifts in the UPT Schedule -- Sources of Upward Shifts in the Wage-Setting Schedule -- Factors that May Shift the UPT Schedule -- Sources of Slow Productivity Growth and Increasing Inequality in the United States -- 5.4 PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH DIFFERENCES ACROSS COUNTRIES AND SECTORS -- Means and Variances of Output per Hour Growth Rates -- What Did Capital Contribute to the Productivity Slowdown? -- Productivity Growth Regressions -- 5.5 CONCLUSIONS -- References -- CHAPTER 6 Forward into the Past: Productivity Retrogression in the Electric Generating Industry -- 6.1 ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ECONOMY-WIDE PRODUCTIVITY SLOWDOWN -- Scope of the Study -- Limitations -- 6.2 TECHNOLOGY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR RESEARCH -- Characteristics of the Technology -- Technology and the Sources of Economies of Scale -- Technology "Hits the Wall" -- Technological History and Its Implications for Econometric Research -- 6.3 ECONOMETRIC SPECIFICATION AND DATA -- The Employment Equation -- The Fuel Input Equation and the "Heat Rate Residual" -- Data and Estimation Issues.

6.4 ESTIMATED FUEL AND LABOR INPUT EQUATIONS -- The Fuel Input Equations -- The Basic Employment Equation -- Variations on the Basic Employment Equations -- 1. Year Triplets -- 2. Average Vintage -- 3. Sample Split -- 4. Interaction Effects -- Implications of the Coefficients for the Productivity Growth Slowdown -- 6.5 FIRM AND ESTABLISHMENT EFFECTS -- Allowing for Firm Effects -- 6.6 A SURVEY OF "OUTLIER" PLANTS -- Characteristics of Outlier Plants -- Role of Employees and Extent of Data Errors -- Omission of Variables -- 1. Gas Turbine Unit -- 2. Joint Products -- 3. Joint Maintenance and Engineering Services -- 4. Isolated Location -- 5. Old Building -- 6. New Units After Sample Period -- 7. Plant Configuration -- Misgauged Maintenance Burden -- Environmental Regulations -- Diminishing Returns to Technical Advance -- 6.7 CONCLUSION -- Methodology -- Substantive Results -- Data Appendix -- Data Source -- Editing and Adjustments -- 1. Cleaning -- 2. Adjustments -- 3. Configuration Changes -- 4. Average Vintage -- References -- PART TWO INTERPRETING PRODUCTIVITY FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE -- introduction -- DEBATING THE SOURCES OF BUSINESS CYCLES -- WHY IS PRODUCTIVITY PROCYCLICAL? -- THE FOUR FREQUENCIES OF PRODUCTIVITY -- References -- CHAPTER 7 Fresh Water, Salt Water, and Other Macroeconomic Elixirs -- 7.1 BACKGROUND -- The Rise -- The Fall -- Real Business Cycle Theory -- Fresh-Water Economics: Leaders without Followers -- Citation Counts -- Conference Participants -- 7.2 WHICH ARE THE TOPICS OF CENTRAL CONCERN? -- Topics of Recent U.S. Research -- An Obsolete American Preoccupation? -- Redirecting Future Research -- References -- CHAPTER 8 Are Procyclical Productivity Fluctuations a Figment of Measurement Error? -- INTRODUCTION -- The Rediscovery of Procyclical MFP -- Previous Research on Procyclical Productivity.

8.1 THE ALGEBRA OF MISMEASUREMENT AND OVERHEAD FACTOR INPUTS -- Production in the Short Run -- Mismeasurement Parameters -- Overhead Labor and Capital -- Implications for the Measured Procyclicality of MFP -- Parameter Tradeoffs -- Hall's Defense Against the Mismeasurement Argument -- Dynamics -- 8.2 ECONOMETRIC ISSUES -- Specification -- Detrending -- Instruments and Reverse Causation -- 8.3 ESTIMATION -- The SRIRL Parameter -- Within-Sample Stability -- The "End-of-Expansion" Effect -- Which Parameter Values Extinguish the Procyclicality of MFP? -- High-Frequency Movements in MFP -- 8.4 CONCLUSION -- References -- CHAPTER 9 The Jobless Recovery: Does It Signal a New Era of Productivity-Led Growth? -- Alternative Interpretations: A New Era versus the Usual Cyclical Rebound? -- The Case for a New Era -- The Opposing View: A Normal Cyclical Rebound -- Separating Trend and Cycle -- 9.1 DATA AND DETRENDING -- Data Issues -- The Base-Year Weighting Bias -- IIP Use of Employment Data -- Payroll Employment versus Household Employment -- Detrending -- 9.2 THE HISTORICAL BEHAVIOR OF PRODUCTIVITY -- 9.3 ECONOMETRIC SPECIFICATION AND ESTIMATION -- Dynamic Specification and the End-of-Expansion Effect -- Estimation: Nonfarm Private Business -- Summarizing the Specification: The Four Frequencies of Productivity -- Estimation: The Two Subsectors -- 9.4 THE UNDERLYING TREND IN LABOR'S AVERAGE PRODUCT, 1987-92 -- Cumulative 1987-92 Errors in Alternative Equations -- Searching for the Optimal Trend -- Interpreting Cyclical Fluctuations in Productivity -- Forecasts for 1993-4 -- 9.5 CONCLUSION -- References -- PART THREE THE THEORY OF THE INFLATION-UNEMPLOYMENT TRADEOFF -- INTRODUCING SUPPLY SHOCKS INTO MACROECONOMICS -- EMERGENCE OF THE THEORY OF SUPPLY SHOCKS -- THE DYNAMIC MODEL OF AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND -- THE "TRIANGLE" MODEL OF INFLATION -- CONCLUSION.

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