Trader Vic on Commodities -- Contents -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- CHAPTER 1 The Basics -- BREAKING IT DOWN -- EVERYBODY WANTS SOME -- BUY AND SELL, OR BUY AND HOLD? -- CHAPTER 2 You Can't Win Them All -- WHY MOST TRADERS LOSE -- HOW TO LOSE PROPERLY -- THROW IN YOUR HAND -- TRADES APPEAR EVERYWHERE IN LIFE -- CHAPTER 3 Indicators and Tools -- RELATIVE STRENGTH -- TREND FOLLOWING VERSUS MOMENTUM -- SENTIMENT -- COMMITMENT OF TRADERS -- LONG-ONLY COMMODITY INDEXES -- REBALANCING -- CHAPTER 4 2B or Not 2B: A Classic Rule Revisited -- CHANGES IN TREND -- THE 2B RULE -- LONG-TERM 2BS -- SPREADS AND THE 2B RULE -- CALL OR FOLD, JUST STAY IN THE GAME -- CHAPTER 5 An Introduction to the S&P DTI -- THE LONG-ONLY INDEX-LEAVING TOO MUCH ON THE TABLE? -- COVERING ALL THE BASES -- DO IT YOURSELF? -- CHAPTER 6 A Challenge to the Random Walk Theory -- TREND FOLLOWING IS A LEGITIMATE CHALLENGE TO THE RANDOM WALK THEORY -- HE WHO STATES A CLAIM MUST PROVE HIS STATEMENTS -- A CHALLENGE -- TREND FOLLOWING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS EXPLANATION -- SUMMARY -- CHAPTER 7 The Rationale and Value of a Long/Short Futures Strategy -- THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE S&P DTI AND INFLATION -- S&P DTI DURING DISINFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENTS -- The Essence of What Makes an Index -- Long/Short Indicators and Long-Only Indexes: The Same Asset Class -- The S&P DTI: A Volatility Indicator -- CONCLUSION -- S&P DTI as an Asset Class -- Why the S&P DTI Must Include Financial Assets -- Hypothetical Statistical Information (Gross Returns-Fees Included) -- Gross Hypothetical Returns -- CHAPTER 8 Why the S&P DTI Is an Indicator -- PREDICTIVE VALUE OF THE S&P 500 -- DISTRIBUTION CLASSES -- CONCLUSION -- CHAPTER 9 The Fundamental Reason the S&P DTI Generates Core Returns -- CORE RETURNS IN DIFFERENT ASSET CLASSES -- To Recap -- THE SOURCE RETURNS OF COMMODITIES -- Backwardation or Discount Markets.

Contango or Premium Markets -- WHY THE S&P DTI GENERATES CORE RETURNS -- CHAPTER 10 The Nature of the S&P DTI Returns -- DESIGN OF THE S&P DTI MOVING AVERAGE ALGORITHM -- WHY THE PARTICULAR MOVING AVERAGE USED IS NOT IMPORTANT TO THE RESULTS -- THE S&P DTI COMPARED TO LONG-ONLY INDEXES -- THE MOVING AVERAGE RULE ALLOWS ONLY FOR THE APPROXIMATE MEASURE OF THE EXTENT OF THE RETURNS, BUT DOES NOT DETERMINE THEM -- WHIPSAWS AND SHORT-TERM TRENDS CANNOT DOMINATE THE S&P DTI'S MOVEMENTS FOR LONG -- BASIS OF RETURNS AT ANY PARTICULAR TIME PERIOD IS THE EXTENT OF THE LONG-TERM TRENDS -- THE NATURE OF LSM AND S&P DTI LOSSES -- NONCORRELATION WITHIN ITS TWO MAJOR GROUPS -- TRUE DIVERSIFICATION WITHIN ITS COMPONENTS -- DIVERSIFICATION AND NONCORRELATION PROVIDES STABLE RETURNS -- LSM AND S&P DTI LOSES BECAUSE OF SHORT-TERM TRENDS -- LARGEST DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS -- SUMMARY -- CHAPTER 11 A Fundamental Hedge -- TIME AS A FACTOR IN HEDGE RESULTS -- CHAPTER 12 S&P DTI Subindexes: The S&P Commodity Trends Indicator and the S&P Financial Trends Indicator -- A PURE COMMODITY PLAY -- BUILDING S&P CTI-BASED PRODUCTS -- Afterword -- SUMMARIZING AND CLARIFYING -- APPENDIX A S&P DTI Methodology and Implementation -- INTRODUCTION -- DESCRIPTION -- METHODOLOGY AND MAINTENANCE -- Selection Criteria -- Initial Weightings -- REBALANCING -- Monthly Rebalancing for Sector Weights -- Variability of Component Weights -- Annual Rebalancing for Component Weights -- Position Determination -- Price Input -- Sectors versus Components -- Energy's Short Exemption-Risk of Ruin -- Contract Maintenance -- S&P DTI Oversight Committee -- S&P DTI Performance -- S&P Diversified Trends Pro Forma Indicator Performance Analysis -- The S&P DTI Measures Trends and Volatility -- Why Has the S&P Diversified Trends Indicator Been Profitable on a Pro Forma Basis?.

THE ECONOMIC FUNCTION OF THE FUTURES MARKET -- The Risk Transfer Phenomenon -- Attracting Capital -- Futures Price in Backwardation (Discount) -- Futures Price in Contango (Premium) -- THE S&P DTI AND INFLATION -- Long Position Captures and Hedges Inflation Risk -- The Short Position Profits from Commodity and Financial Cyclicality -- Exponential Average Multiplier Schedule -- S&P DTI Calculation Algorithm -- ACTIVE CONTRACT POSITION FOR SECTOR i -- S&P DTI Subindicator: Commodities-The S&P Commodity Trends Indicator -- APPENDIX B How to Interpret Simulated Historical Results -- THE LSM AS A PROXY FOR THE S&P DTI -- COMPARISON OF THE PERFORMANCE OF THE S&P DTI TO OTHER ASSET CLASSES MEASURED WITHIN DIFFERENT ECONOMIC PERIODS -- APPENDIX C Correlation Statistics -- About the Author -- Index -- EULA.