Cover -- Preface -- Contents -- Figures -- Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Glossary -- CHAPTER ONE Introduction -- The Problem -- Purpose -- Organization -- Research Approach -- CHAPTER TWO Domestic Politics -- The Historical and Religious Basis of Iran's Political System -- Major Political Actors -- The Supreme Leader -- Assembly of Experts -- Guardian Council -- Expediency Council -- The Judiciary -- The President -- Majlis -- Military -- The Supreme National Security Council -- Informal Decisionmaking -- Bonyads: Influential Power Brokers -- Security Interests -- Iranian Factions -- Other Political Actors -- Against Velayat-e-Faqih -- Clerics -- Mojahedin-e-Khalq -- Religious Intellectuals -- Iranian Political Participation and the Public -- Politics and Legitimacy in Iran -- The Political Outlook -- CHAPTER THREE The Challenge of Ethnicity and Identity Politics -- The Ethnic and Religious Composition of Iran -- Past Iranian Ethnic Policies -- Present Challenges -- Irredentism and Ethnonationalism -- Iran's Minorities and Political Reform -- Foreign Intervention and Iranian Nationalism -- CHAPTER FOUR Demographic Change -- Population and Rate of Growth -- Urbanization -- CHAPTER FIVE Economic Development and Vulnerabilities -- Energy and the Iranian Economy -- Reserves and Output of Oil and Natural Gas -- The Role of Energy in Gross Domestic Product, Exports, and the Budget -- Nuclear Power -- Key Economic Actors and Their Interests -- State-Owned Companies -- The Bonyads -- The Private Sector: Bazaaris, Industrialists, and Small Business -- Economic Growth -- Economic Policies -- Policies on Trade, Exchange Rates, Foreign Debt, and Foreign Direct Investment -- Tax, Regulatory, and Subsidy Policies -- Monetary, Fiscal, and Financial-Sector Policies -- Economic Policy Under Ahmadinejad -- Economic Policy Vulnerabilities.

The Iranian Labor Market -- Supply -- Demand -- Unemployment -- Poverty, Incomes, and Income Distribution -- Prospects -- The Outlook for Energy and Implications for the Iranian Economy -- The Outlook for Growth in the Rest of the Economy -- CHAPTER SIX Iranian Vulnerabilities and Implications for U.S. Policies -- Vulnerabilities -- Likely Domestic Consequences of U.S. Military Actions Against Iran -- Attacking Iranian Nuclear Installations -- U.S. Military Responses to Iranian Involvement in Iraq -- Blockade of Iranian Oil Exports -- U.S. Policy Options for Influencing Iran -- Policies for Engaging with Iranian Society -- Facilitate Increased Contacts Between Iranians and Americans -- Expand Efforts to Engage in Public Diplomacy, Especially withMinority Ethnic Groups -- Policies for Weakening the Iranian Government's Ability to Clamp Down -- Mute U.S. Policy Statements on Regime Change -- Discourage Ethnic Groups from Violently Opposing the Iranian Regime -- Encourage the Development of Markets in Iran -- Support IMF and World Bank Efforts to Encourage Better Economic Management in Iran -- Do Not Oppose Iran's Accession to the WTO -- Policies for Penalizing the Iranian Government or Its Officials for Pursuing Policies that Harm the United States -- Maintain the Embargo on Iran on Gas Liquefaction and Gas-to-Liquids Technologies. -- Expand Contingency Plans to Seize Iranian Foreign Accounts -- Encourage U.S. Allies to Bar Selected Iranian Officials fromObtaining Visas -- Concluding Remarks -- References.