Contents -- Acknowledgments -- 1. Introduction -- Part 1 Econometric Theory and Methodology -- 2. The Econometric Methodology -- Appendix 2.1 Identification and Testing -- Appendix 2.2 An Annotated Computer Program -- 3. An Integrated View of Tests of Rationality, Market Efficiency, and the Short-Run Neutrality of Aggregate Demand Policy -- Part 2 Empirical Studies -- 4. Are Market Forecasts Rational? -- 5. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach -- Appendix 5.1 Estimates of the Forecasting Equations -- Appendix 5.2 Additional Experiments Using the Two-step Procedure -- 6. Does Anticipated Aggregate Demand Policy Matter? -- Appendix 6.1 Output and Unemployment Models with Barro and Rush Specification -- Appendix 6.2 Results with Nominal GNP Growth and Inflation as the Aggregate Demand Variable -- Appendix 6.3 Results Not Using Polynominal Distributed Lags -- Appendix 6.4 Jointly Estimated Forecasting Equations -- 7. Concluding Remarks -- References -- Index.