Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Plates -- List of Tables -- List of Abbreviations -- Acknowledgements -- Part I: Early Disease Emergence: Pre-1850 -- 1. Introduction -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Defining Emerging and Re-emerging Infections -- 1.3 The Origins of Human Diseases -- 1.4 The Historical Record of (Re-)emerging Diseases -- 1.5 Correlates of Disease Emergence -- 1.6 Organization of the Book -- 2. Disease Emergence and Re-emergence Prior to 1850 -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Ancient Epidemics (2000 BC-AD 500) -- 2.3 Historical Sample -- 2.4 Long-Term Trends: The London Mortality Series, 1603-1849 -- 2.5 Conclusion -- Part II: Processes of Disease Emergence: 1850-2006 -- Introduction -- 3. The Geographical Matrix -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 International Patterns of Communicable Disease Surveillance, 1923-1983 -- 3.3 'Headline Trends' in Communicable Diseases: MMWR Weekly, 1952-2005 -- 3.4 Field Investigations: The US Epidemic Intelligence Service, 1946-2005 -- 3.5 Conclusion -- 4. Disease Changes: Microbial and Vector Adaptation -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Genetic Change and Microbial Emergence -- 4.3 Antimicrobial Resistance -- 4.4 Vector Adaptation and Insecticide Resistance -- 4.5 Conclusion -- 5. Technical Changes: Technology and Industry -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Food Safety and Disease Emergence -- 5.3 Cooling and Plumbing Systems: Legionnaires' Disease -- 5.4 Conclusion -- 6. Population Changes: Magnitude, Mobility, and Disease Transfer -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Magnitude Changes in the Human Population -- 6.3 Changes in the Spatial Mobility of Human Populations I: Seaborne and Overland Movements -- 6.4 Changes in the Spatial Mobility of the Human Population II: The Air Transport Revolution -- 6.5 Combined Impacts of Mobility -- 6.6 Conclusion -- 7. Environmental Changes: Ecological Modifications -- 7.1 Introduction.

7.2 Agricultural Development -- 7.3 Water Control and Irrigation -- 7.4 Deforestation and Reforestation -- 7.5 Climate Change and Variability -- 7.6 Natural Disasters -- 7.7 Conclusion -- 8. Disease Amplifiers: Wars and Conflicts in the Post-1945 Era -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 International Conflicts in the Far East: Korea and Vietnam -- 8.3 Ethnic Conflict: Genocide, Displacement, and Disease in Central Africa -- 8.4 Other Late Twentieth-and Early Twenty-First-Century Conflicts -- 8.5 Deliberately Emerging Diseases: Biological Warfare and Bioterrorism -- 8.6 Conclusion -- 9. Temporal Trends in Disease Emergence and Re-emergence: World Regions, 1850-2006 -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Global Pandemic Surges -- 9.3 Regional Epidemics: Trends and Time Sequences -- 9.4 National Examples: Australia -- 9.5 Local Patterns: The London Series, 1850-1973 -- 9.6 Conclusion -- Part III: The Future for Emergent Disease Control -- 10. Spatial Detection of (Re-)emerging Diseases -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Wave Analytic Methods -- 10.3 Cyclical Re-emergence: Spotting Influenza Pandemics -- 10.4 Measles in Iceland -- 10.5 Emergence Detection -- 10.6 Surveillance Systems -- 10.7 Conclusion -- Appendices -- 10.1 Swash-Backwash Model Equations -- 10.2 French Monthly Influenza Time Series -- 11. Controlling Re-emerging and Newly Emerging Diseases -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Spatial Barriers: Quarantine Strategies -- 11.3 Aspatial Barriers: Vaccination Strategies -- 11.4 Epilogue -- Appendices -- 11.1 Map Sources -- 11.2 Vaccination and Critical Community Size -- References -- Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- J -- K -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- Q -- R -- S -- T -- U -- V -- W -- Y -- Z.