Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- Figures -- Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Chapter One Introduction -- Study Objectives and Scope -- Analysis Framework for the New Strategic Environment -- Step 1: Conduct Regional Analyses -- Step 2: Define Ways to Achieve U.S. Goals for Nuclear Dissuasion,Deterrence, and Reassurance -- Step 3: Define and Assess Critical U.S. Policy Choices -- Step 4: Describe U.S. Air Force Contributions -- How Our Analytical Approach Differs from Others -- Organization of This Monograph -- Chapter Two Influencing Iran -- Iran's National Security Interests -- Ensuring Regime Survival -- Protecting the Homeland Against All External Threats -- Expanding Regional Influence -- Can Iran Be Expected to Act Rationally? -- Iran's Nuclear Program: Prospects and Uncertainties -- Internal Debate on the Future of Iran's Nuclear Program -- Chapter Three Dissuading Iran from Nuclear Weaponization -- Iranian Actions That the United States Wishes to Dissuade -- Current U.S. Policies Toward Iran's Nuclear Program -- Critical U.S. Policy Choices -- Raise Costs -- Provide Incentives -- Conclusion -- Chapter Four Deterring a Nuclear-Armed Iran -- Iran's Military Behavior and Planning -- Historical Military Behavior -- Military Doctrine -- Conventional Capabilities -- Military Exercises -- Paths to Conflict -- Conflict in Response to International Pressures and Actions Perceived as Acts of War -- Conflict in Response to a U.S. or Israeli Attack Against Iran'sNuclear Facilities -- Conflict to Expand Regional Influence or Consolidate Domestic Power -- Iran's Potential Use of Nuclear Weapons -- Current U.S. Policies and Capabilities -- Policy Choices for Deterring Iran's Use of Nuclear Weapons Against U.S. Military Forces -- Deter by Managing Conflict Escalation.

Deter by Raising the Costs of Using Nuclear Weapons by Threat of Retaliation -- Deter by Denying Iran the Benefits of Using Nuclear Weapons -- Policy Choices for Deterring Iran's Use of Nuclear Weapons Against U.S. Regional Partners -- Conclusion -- Chapter Five Reassuring U.S. Regional Partners -- The Setting -- Views of the GCC States -- Views of Israel -- Current U.S. Policies for Reassurance -- U.S. Reassurance Goal: Ensure Confidence in Credibility of a U.S. Nuclear Deterrent -- Explicit and Public Security Guarantees -- U.S. Conventional Forces -- U.S. Nuclear-Related Military Activities -- U.S. Nuclear Guarantee -- Conclusion -- Chapter Four Approaches to Influencing Iran -- Approaches to Influencing Iran -- Chapter : 7 -- Air Force Contributions and Preparing for the Future -- The Way Ahead -- Appendixes -- A. Context for U.S. Reassurance Strategies: GCC -- B. Context for U.S. Reassurance Strategies: Israel -- Bibliography.