Table of Contents -- FOREWORD 11 -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 13 -- CHAPTER I. Setting the Scene 15 -- Introduction 15 -- Methodology 21 -- Structure of the work 26 -- CHAPTER II. Energy Research in the European Union 31 -- Summary 31 -- European research and energy research in the six RTD Framework Programmes 33 -- Evolution of European Union RTD budget 39 -- European Union energy RTD budgets 42 -- European Union nuclear and non nuclear energy RTD 45 -- European Union energy economic research 50 -- CHAPTER III. Scientific Controversies on Energy Foresight 61 -- Summary 61 -- Methods and tools for looking at the futures and for evaluating policies 63 -- Continuity, exploratory and breakthrough foresight in energy 69 -- Qualitative-oriented outlook 74 -- Strengths and weaknesses of qualitative-oriented outlooks 83 -- CHAPTER IV. Economic and Technology Modelling 87 -- Summary 87 -- Top-down and Bottom-up models 88 -- Critical issues in modelling 96 -- Long-term and "Back-casting" 109 -- Technological progress and climate change policies 113 -- CHAPTER V. European Quantitative Tools 125 -- Summary 125 -- European macro-economic model GEM-E3 126 -- World energy model POLES 130 -- European energy model PRIMES 132 -- European software for renewable energy SAFIRE 134 -- European software for rational use of energy MURE 137 -- European external costs accounting framework EXTERNE 140 -- CHAPTER VI. Case Studies on EU Policies145 -- Summary 145 -- Community framework for energy taxation 148 -- European Union climate change policy 152 -- Promotion of renewable energy sources in Europe 162 -- Energy efficiency in the European Community 167 -- EU Measurement and internalisation of external costs 173 -- CHAPTER VII. Models ex-post Evaluation and Comparison 185 -- Summary 185 -- EU "ENERGY 2000" study with MEDEE and EFOM 188.

Convergence and divergences between statistics and forecasts 192 -- EU, international and US energy studies assumptions 199 -- Comparison of modelling-based world energy outlooks 201 -- CHAPTER VIII. EU Interaction of Science and Policy 207 -- Summary 207 -- European decision-making and the role of scientists 208 -- Legal formalisation of the influence of scientists in the EU 215 -- Applied role of experts in shaping EU policies 221 -- Research work and policy implementation 227 -- CHAPTER IX. Final Discussion and Key Messages 231 -- Summary 231 -- EU policies in the energy and research fields 232 -- Qualitative and quantitative tools for policy analysis 235 -- Economics, energy and environment E3 modelling 240 -- E3 modelling in EU decision-making 245 -- Modelling and EU policies interaction and efficiency 251 -- The power of scientists in up-stream EU policy-making 254 -- META CONCLUSION. Science, Modelling and EU Policies 259 -- The seven scientists' challenges 259 -- Scientific consistency and research modesty 261 -- Democracy and technocracy in EU policy-making 262 -- Glossary and Acronyms 265 -- List of Figures 269 -- List of Tables 273 -- Bibliography 275.