Cover -- MONOGRAPHS IN POPULATION BIOLOGY -- Title -- Copyright -- Dedication -- Contents -- Preface: Beyond the Null Hypothesis -- About the Title -- The Audience and Assumed Background -- Computer Programming -- Realism and Professionalism -- Acknowledgments -- 1. An Ecological Scenario and the Tools of the Ecological Detective -- An Ecological Scenario -- The Tools for Ecological Detection -- 2. Alternative Views of the Scientific Method and of Modeling -- Alternative Views of the Scientific Method -- Statistical Inference in Experimental Trees -- Unique Aspects of Ecological Data -- Distinguishing between Models and Hypotheses -- Types and Uses of Models -- Nested Models -- Model Complexity -- 3. Probability and Probability Models: Know Your Data -- Descriptions of Randomness -- Always Plot Your Data -- Experiments, Events, and Probability -- Process and Observation Uncertainties -- Some Useful Probability Distributions -- The Monte Carlo Method -- 4. Incidental Catch in Fisheries: Seabirds in the New Zealand Squid Trawl Fishery -- Motivation -- The Ecological Setting -- "Statistically Meaningful Data" -- The Data -- A Negative Binomial Model of By-Catch -- A Monte Carlo Approach for Estimating the Chance of Success in an Observer Program -- Implications -- 5. The Confrontation: Sum of Squares -- The Basic Method -- Goodness-of-Fit Profiles -- Model Selection Using Sum of Squares -- 6. The Evolutionary Ecology of Insect Oviposition Behavior -- Motivation -- The Ecological Setting -- The Data -- The Models -- The Confrontation -- Implications -- 7. The Confrontation: Likelihood and Maximum Likelihood -- Overview -- Likelihood and Maximum Likelihood -- Determining the Appropriate Likelihood -- Model Selection Using Likelihoods -- Robustness: Don't Let Outliers Ruin Your Life -- Bounding the Estimated Parameter: Confidence Intervals.

The Bootstrap Method -- Linear Regression, Analysis of Variance, and Maximum Likelihood -- 8. Conservation Biology of Wildebeest in the Serengeti -- Motivation -- The Ecological Setting -- The Data -- The Models: What Happens When Rainfall Returns to Normal (the 1978 Question)? -- The Models: What Is the Intensity of Poaching (the 1992 Question)? -- The Confrontation: The Effects of Rainfall -- The Confrontation: The Effects of Poaching -- Implications -- 9. The Confrontation: Bayesian Goodness of Fit -- Why Bother with Bayesian Analysis? -- Some Examples -- More Technical Examples -- Model versus Model versus Model -- 10. Management of Hake Fisheries in Namibia Motivation -- The Impact of Environmental Change -- The Ecological Setting -- The Data -- The Models -- The Confrontation -- Bayesian Analysis of the LRSG Parameters -- Implications -- 11. The Confrontation: Understanding How the Best Fit Is Found -- Introduction -- Direct Search and Graphics -- Newton's Method and Gradient Search -- Nongradient Methods: Avoiding the Derivative -- The Art of Fitting -- Hints for Special Problems -- Appendix: "The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses" -- References -- Index.