The Art and Science of Military Deception -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- Chapter 1 Beware of the Dog -- Section I: The Ethics of Political-Military Deception -- Chapter 2 Intelligence Ethics -- Section II: Principles and Other Fundamentals -- Introduction -- The Structure of Deception -- Chapter 3 On Simulation and Dissimulation -- Chapter 4 The 8 Principles of Security and the 8 Principles of Deception -- The Principles of Security -- The Principles of Deception -- Chapter 5 Ruses and Stratagems of War -- Ruses and Stratagems of War -- Chapter 6 The Problem of Deception -- The Problem of Deception -- The Infrequency and Neglect of Deception -- Principles, Techniques and Effectiveness of Deception -- Types of Deception -- Chapter 7 Deception Maxims: Fact and Folklore -- Chapter 8 The Principle of Naturalness -- Conclusion -- Chapter 9 Tactical Deception in Air-Land Warfare -- Section III: Myths of Deception -- Introduction -- Chapter 10 Meinertzhagen's False Claim to the Haversack Ruse (1917) -- Chapter 11 The Ultra Secret: Enigma Unwrapped A Review of F.W. Winterbotham's The Ultra Secret -- Chapter 12 The Ultra Variations: A Review of Anthony Cave Brown's Bodyguard of Lies -- Section IV Theories: How Deception Works -- Introduction -- How Deception Works -- Chapter 13 "Window" as written in Most Secret War -- Chapter 14 The Psychology of Deception -- Chapter 15 "Killing No Murder" The Strategy of Indirect Approach -- Chapter 16 Cognitive Factors in Deception and Counterdeception -- Introduction -- Biases in Perception -- Implications for Intelligence Analysis -- Cognitive Biases -- Biases in Estimating Probabilities -- Biases in Evaluation of Evidence -- Oversensitivity to Consistency -- Biases in the Perception of Causality -- Bias Toward Causal Explanations -- Internal vs. External Causes of Behavior -- Conclusion -- Appendix.

Endnotes -- Chapter 17 -- Chapter 17 The Theory of Practical Joking-Its Relevance to Physics -- Chapter 18 Styles in Deception -- Styles In Deception -- Chapter 19 The Process of Deception -- Section V: Deception Traditions -- Introduction -- Deception Traditions -- A British Tradition of Stratagem: And Its Influence on American, Israeli, Indian and Pakistani Doctrine -- Chapter 20 Conditions Making for Success and Failure of Denial and Deception: Democratic Regimes -- Chapter 21 Some Notes on the Organization of Deception (1944) -- Some Notes on the Organization of Deception in the United States Forces -- American Attempts at Deception: A Spotty Record -- Chapter 22 The Actor's Tale -- Chapter 23 American Strategic Deception in the Pacific: 1942-44 -- Chapter 24 A Pentagon Proposal to Continue a Deception Organization after WW2 (1945)-General Conclusions -- General Recommendations -- A Russian Tradition of Stratagem:1939 to the Present -- Chapter 25 Catching NATO Unawares: Soviet Army Surprise and Deception Techniques -- Surprise in Its Strategic Context -- The Advantages of Surprise -- A Heavy Blow -- Speed and Flexibility in the Advance -- Simultaneous Attacks Throughout the Enemy's Depth -- Air Superiority -- The Possibilities of Strategic Surprise -- The Limits of Modern Surveillance -- Assessing Intentions -- Operational Surprise -- Eight Methods -- Operational Deception -- Examples of Maskirova -- Tasks of Maskirovka -- Principles of Deception -- Conclusions -- Chapter 26 The Red Mask: The Nature and Legacy of Soviet Military Deception -- The Chinese Tradition of Stratagem: circa. 350 BC to the Present -- Chapter 27 Foreward to General Griffith's Sun Tzu -- Chapter 28 Stratagem: The Chinese View in the Sun Tzu -- Chapter 29 Chinese Deception Doctrine: A View from Open Sources -- Preface -- Introduction and Overview.

Implications for the U.S. -- Limits of Open Sources -- Background of the Two Authors -- A Unique Chinese Deception Theory? -- Examples of Chinese Deception Aspirations -- Chinese History as a Source of Future Deception Models -- Section VI: Tactical Camouflage: Now You See It, Now You Don't -- Introduction -- Chapter 30 Now You See It, Now You Don't: Camoufleurs, Conjurers and Pickpockets -- Section VII: Strategic Deception -- Introduction -- Strategic Deception -- Chapter 31 Biggest Hoax of the War: Operation FORTITUDE: The Allied deception plan that fooled the Germans about Normandy -- Chapter 32 Soviet Deception in the Cuban Missile Crisis - Learning from the Past -- Maskirovka -- Close-hold Planning -- Developing a Cover Story -- Getting the Cubans on Board -- Keeping the Secret at Home -- Secrecy in Transit -- Unloading in Cuba -- Movement to Field Sites -- Disingenuous Diplomacy -- Denouement -- In Conclusion -- Footnotes -- Chapter 33 The Barry and Thomas Critique of the Pentagon Report: In The Lessons and Non-Lessons of the Air and Missile Campaign in Kosovo -- Chapter 34 Denial and Deception Practices of WMD Proliferators: Iraq and Beyond -- Section VIII: Irregular Warfare and Non-State Actors -- Introduction -- Terrorists and Other Non-State Actors-Constraints and Opportunities -- Chapter 35 Conditions Making for Success and Failure of Denial and Deception: Nonstate and Illicit Actors -- Chapter 36 The Evolution of a Revolt -- Chapter 37 The Inherent Vulnerabilities of Technology: Insights from the National Training Center's Opposing Force -- Chapter 38 Tactical Deception and Strategic Surprise in al-Qai'da's Operations -- Chapter 39 How Can Weak Powers Win -- Section IX: Ambush and Counterambush -- Introduction -- Ambush -- Chapter 40 How to Ambush a NATO Fortress -- Main Circumstances.

Chapter 41 High Desert Ambush: Hard Lessons Learned the Hard Way -- Contemporary Issues -- Chapter 42 A Modern Day "Trojan Horse"-Operation JAQUE and the Use of Stratagem in a Hostage Rescue Operation -- Operation Willing Spirit -- Partnership - U.S. and Colombian Special Operational Forces -- Operation Willing Spirit Campaign Planning -- The Reconnaissance Plan and Operation Ellipse -- Problems From Within -- Cracking the FARC Communication Codes -- Operation JAQUE-"Check" -- Conclusions -- Section X: Deception Planners and Planning -- Introduction -- Deception Planners and Planning -- Preconditions -- Process -- Chapter 43 A Commander Improvises His Own Deception Planning Team -- Chapter 44 Deception Planning in 145 Different Disciplines: Lessons from Behind Other Hills -- How They Deceive -- The Essence of Deception: Hiding the Real and Showing the False -- What They Hide and Show: The 5 Ws -- Bluff and Double Bluff -- The Theory of Outs -- In Con Games -- In Magic -- In General -- In War -- Time Out of Joint -- Magicians-The One-Ahead Method -- Practical Jokers: It's Earlier Than You Think -- Con Artists: It's Later Than You Think -- Soldiers -- The Theory of Indirect Approach -- Direction, Misdirection, and Indirection -- Section XI: Naval Warfare -- Chapter 45 How to Cheat on Naval Tonnage Treaty Limits 1919-1939 -- Chapter 46 Harwood and the First Deception of WWII, 1939 -- Section XII: Air War -- Chapter 47 MiG Sweep-Operation BOLO -- Chapter 48 Aerial Deception since the Second World War -- Chapter 49 Detection of the B-2 Bomber and a Brief History on 'Stealth' -- Scouting for Surveillance -- Detection of the B-2 Stealth Bomber and a Brief History on "Stealth" -- Overview of stealth technology -- Potential vulnerabilities -- The Roke Manor system -- A natural technological progression -- Military consequences.

Section XIII: Ground War: Theory and Practice -- Chapter 50 Night Action by Gideon at Moreh - perhaps 1249 B.C. -- Chapter 51 BCTP: Be Unpredictable, Take Risks-Or Lose -- Chapter 52 The Monkey's Paw -- Chapter 53 1st Cav in Desert Storm-Deception, Firepower and Movement -- Ground War: U.S. Training for Conventional Field Combat -- Introduction -- Chapter 54 Deception Operations in REFORGER 88 -- Chapter 55 Voices in the Sand: Deception Operations at the NTC -- Chapter 56 OPFOR Counterreconnaissance at the National Training Center -- Section XIV: Economic Warfare -- Chapter 57 The Farewell Dossier: Duping the Soviets -- The Farewell Dossier -- Soviet S&T Espionage -- US Computer Export Policy -- Strong Suspicions and Skepticism -- Presidential Interest -- A Defector in Place -- Interest in Technology Transfer -- A Deception Operation -- National Security Directive -- Good-by to Farewell -- An Important Contribution -- Notes -- Section XV: Cost Effectiveness -- Chapter 58 The One Percent Solution: Costs and Benefits of Military Deception -- Section XVI: When Your Deception Plan is Compromised: Plan B -- Chapter 59 Battle of The Gothic Line, 25 Aug 1944: Operation OLIVE -- Section XVII: When Deception Backfires -- Chapter 60 Polyakov's Run -- Act One -- "Top Hat" -- Red Herring? -- Act Two -- Act Three -- Chapter 61 Counterintelligence (CI) vs. Counterespionage (CE) -- Chapter 62 Counter-Deception Planning -- Counter-Deception Planning: Methodologies -- The Nature of a Counter-Deception System -- Seat-of-the-Pants Counter-Deception Methods -- Detection of Deception: Three Theories -- Reconstructive Inference -- Testing for Signals and Sprignals -- Incongruity Testing -- Guarding Against Expectation, Self-Deception, and Commitment -- Vulnerability Assessment -- Countermeasures -- Notes -- Conclusion -- A Cultural Handicap?.

The Erosion of Strategy and Stratagem.