Sudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance.
Title:
Sudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance.
Author:
Kim, Jun Il.
ISBN:
9781451914559
Personal Author:
Physical Description:
1 online resource (36 pages)
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Contents:
Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. The Model -- III. Model Calibration -- IV. Concluding Remarks -- Text Tables -- 1. Actual and Calibrated Optimal Reserves for Selected EM Countries: 1993-2006 -- 2. Implied Probability of a Sudden Stop for Selected EM Countries: 1994-2007 -- 3. IMF Arrangements for Selected EM Countries: 1993-2006 -- Text Figures -- 1. Actual and Calibrated Optimal Reserves for Selected EM Countries: 1993- -- A. Latin America -- B. Asia, Russia and Turkey -- 2. Implied Probability of a Sudden Stop for Selected EM Countries: 1994- -- A. Latin America -- B. Asia, Russia and Turkey -- 3. Actual θ and Default Threshold θ* for Selected EM Countries: 1993- -- A. Latin America -- B. Asia, Russia and Turkey -- 4. Sources of Reserve Accumulation for Selected EM Countries: 1993- -- A. Latin America -- B. Asia, Russia and Turkey -- Appendix: Creditor Coordination Problem -- References.
Abstract:
This paper presents a simple model of optimal reserves that can be easily calibrated to compute optimal reserves as well as the implied probability of a sudden stop for given reserves. The model builds upon the global games framework of Morris and Shin to establish a unique relationship between the probability of a sudden stop and the level of reserves. The calibration results for 15 selected emerging market countries in Latin America, Asia and other regions over the sample period of 1993-2006 suggest that the risk of sudden stops may have declined to a low level in recent years in all countries in the sample. The results also suggest that Asia and Russia may have been significantly over insured since early 2000s with estimated excess reserves of US 1 trillion in total at end-2006.
Local Note:
Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2017. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
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Electronic Access:
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