The Essence of Scenarios : Learning from the Shell Experience.
Title:
The Essence of Scenarios : Learning from the Shell Experience.
Author:
Wilkinson, Angela.
ISBN:
9789048522095
Personal Author:
Physical Description:
1 online resource (170 pages)
Contents:
Table of Contents -- Acknowledgements -- Preface by Peter Ho -- Introduction: The "Gentle Art" -- Sources -- I. A Unique Legacy -- II. Shell Scenarios - A History, 1965-2013 -- Experimentation and Emergence, 1965-1981 -- Moving Closer to the Business, 1982-1990 -- Culture Change, 1990-1999 -- Cheaper, Deeper Thinking, 1999-2006 -- New Pathways to 'Challenging and Heard', 2006-2013 -- III. The Essence of the Shell Art -- 1. Improving Intuition -- 2. Plausible, Not Probable -- 3. Striking the Balance Between Relevant and Challenging -- 4. Pragmatic, Not Ideological -- 5. Realizing the Role of the Future in the Present -- 6. Focused and Targeted -- 7. Engaging the Client in the Process -- 8. Memorable, Yet Disposable -- 9. Storytelling - the Heart of Strategic Conversation -- 10. The Necessity of Numbers -- 11. The Creation of a Scenario Team -- 12. Serving as Door-Openers and Adding Value to External Relationships -- 13. Fostering a Culture of Openness and Curiosity -- 14. Managing Disagreement as an Asset -- 15. Providing Value within a Broader Management System -- IV. Looking Ahead -- From 'Seeing' to 'Seeding', Not Growing Better Futures -- Beyond Products to Value-Added Services -- The Future of Shell Scenarios -- Business Lens -- Reaching Out -- V. Conclusion -- The Evolution Continues - the Essence Remains -- Epilogue: Scenario Team Leaders -- Afterword -- Appendix A - Timeline -- Appendix B - Summary of Scenarios -- Index.
Abstract:
In 1965, Royal Dutch Shell started experimenting with a new approach to preparing for the future. This approach, called scenario planning, eschewed forecasting in favor of plausible alternative stories. By using stories, or "scenarios," Shell aimed to avoid the false assumption that the future would look much like the present-an assumption that marred most corporate planning at the time. The Essence of Scenarios offers unmatched insight into the company's innovative practice, which still has a huge influence on the way businesses, governments, and other organizations think about and plan for the future. In the course of their research, Angela Wilkinson and Roland Kupers interviewed almost every living veteran of the Shell scenario planning operation, along with many top Shell executives from later periods. Drawing on these interviews, the authors identify several principles that characterize the Shell process and explain how it has survived and thrived for so long. They also enumerate the qualities of successful Shell scenarios, which above all must be plausible stories with logical trajectories. Ultimately, Wilkinson and Kupers demonstrate the value of scenario planning as a sustained practice, rather than as a one-off exercise.
Local Note:
Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2017. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
Genre:
Added Author:
Electronic Access:
Click to View