Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Contents -- List of Contributors -- Acknowledgements -- Introduction -- Part I The Smoking Epidemic -- Chapter 1 Generalised Compartmental Modelling of Health Epidemics -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Basic compartmental model of smoking dynamics -- 1.3 Properties of the basic model -- 1.3.1 Steady-state solutions -- 1.3.2 Steady-state stability -- 1.4 Generalised model inclusive of multiple peer recruitment -- 1.4.1 Smoking-free equilibrium in the generalised model -- 1.4.2 New smoking-present equilibria in the generalised model -- 1.5 Bistability and 'tipping points' in the generalised model -- 1.5.1 Steady-state variation with ϵ -- 1.5.2 'Tipping points' and hysteresis -- 1.6 Summary and conclusions -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Chapter 2 Stochastic Modelling for Compartmental Systems Applied to Social Problems -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Global sensitivity analysis of deterministic models -- 2.3 Sensitivity analysis of the generalised smoking model with peer influence -- 2.4 Adding randomness to a deterministic model -- 2.5 Sensitivity analysis of the stochastic analogue -- 2.6 Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Chapter 3 Women and Smoking in the North East of England -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Background -- 3.3 Interrogating the figures -- 3.4 Materialist and cultural or behavioural explanations -- 3.5 The tobacco industry and the creation of social values -- 3.6 Local voices -- 3.7 Conclusions -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Part II Mathematical Modelling in Healthcare -- Chapter 4 Cardiac Surgery Performance Monitoring -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.1.1 Why do we monitor cardiac surgery providers? -- 4.1.2 Professional framework for monitoring -- 4.1.3 Objectives -- 4.2 Statistical framework for monitoring -- 4.2.1 Data collection.

4.2.2 Data extraction and cleaning -- 4.2.3 Missing data and imputation -- 4.2.4 Risk adjustment -- 4.2.5 Risk-adjustment methodology -- 4.2.6 The status quo -- 4.2.7 Measuring divergence -- 4.3 A non-stationary process -- 4.3.1 Calibration drift -- 4.3.2 Discrimination -- 4.3.3 A changing population -- 4.3.4 A closer inspection of calibration -- 4.4 Dynamic modelling approaches -- 4.4.1 Model approaches -- 4.4.2 Comparison of model approaches -- 4.5 Case example -- 4.6 Discussion -- 4.7 Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Chapter 5 Heart Online Uncertainty and Stability Estimation -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Monitoring live complex systems -- 5.3 The Bayes linear approach -- 5.4 The Fantasia and Sudden Cardiac Death databases -- 5.5 Exploring ECG datasets -- 5.6 Assessing discrepancy -- 5.7 Final remarks and conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Chapter 6 Stents, Blood Flow and Pregnancy -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Drug-eluting stents -- 6.2.1 Mathematical model -- 6.2.2 Modelling drug release -- 6.2.3 Modelling the coupled problem -- 6.2.4 Solving the model equations -- 6.2.5 Remarks on modelling drug release -- 6.3 Modelling blood flow -- 6.3.1 Mathematical model of blood flow -- 6.3.2 Application to blood flow in a dog's femoral artery -- 6.4 Modelling a capillary-fill medical diagnostic tool -- 6.4.1 Basic equations -- 6.4.2 Recharacterisation of the model -- 6.4.3 Comments -- 6.5 Summary and closing remarks -- References -- Part III Tipping Points in Social Dynamics -- Chapter 7 From Five Key Questions to a System Sociology Theory -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Complexity features -- 7.3 Mathematical tools -- 7.4 Black Swans from the interplay of different dynamics -- 7.4.1 Nature of the interactions -- 7.4.2 Generator of a BS -- 7.4.3 Domino effect -- 7.5 Validation of models.

7.6 Conclusions: towards a mathematical theory of social systems -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Chapter 8 Complexity in Spatial Dynamics: The Emergence of Homogeneity/ Heterogeneity in Culture in Cities -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Modelling approach -- 8.3 Description of the model -- 8.4 Sensitivity analysis and results -- 8.5 Discussion and conclusions -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Chapter 9 Cultural Evolution, Gene-Culture Coevolution, and Human Health -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Cultural evolution -- 9.2.1 Self-medication treatment efficacy -- 9.3 Epidemiological modelling of cultural change -- 9.3.1 Drinking behaviour -- 9.4 Gene-culture coevolution -- 9.4.1 Lactase persistence and dairying -- 9.5 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 10 Conformity Bias and Catastrophic Social Change -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Three-population compartmental model -- 10.3 Basic system excluding conformity bias -- 10.4 Including conformity bias -- 10.5 Comparative statics -- 10.6 Summary -- 10.7 Conclusions -- Acknowledgements -- Appendix 10.A: Stability in the conformity bias model -- References -- Part IV The Resilience of Tipping Points -- Chapter 11 Psychological Perspectives on Risk and Resilience -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Forensic psychological risk assessments in prisons -- 11.3 Suicide in prisons -- 11.4 Biases in human decision making-forensic psychologists making risky decisions -- 11.5 The Port of London Authority -- 11.6 Final thoughts and reflections -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Chapter 12 Tipping Points and Uncertainty in Health and Healthcare Systems -- 12.1 Introduction: 'tipping points' as 'critical events' in health systems -- 12.2 Prediction, prevention and preparedness strategies for risk resilience in complex systems -- 12.3 No such thing as a 'never event'?.

12.4 Local versus large-scale responses to risk -- 12.5 Conclusions: the ongoing agenda for research on tipping points in complex systems -- Endnotes and acknowledgements -- References -- Index -- EULA.