Contents -- List of Figures and Tables -- Foreword -- To the Reader -- Acknowledgments -- 1 Why a Science of Complexity? -- The Complexity of Interdependence -- Chaos or Complexity? -- The Evolution of Societal Fitness -- Is Complexity Good or Bad? -- The Need for a Sound Paradigm -- Either/or Paradigms in International Studies -- 2 Basic Concepts of Complexity Science -- How to Measure Fitness? -- Coevolution -- Emergence -- Agent-Based Systems -- Self-Organized Criticality -- Fitness Landscapes -- Self-Organized Fitness versus Despotism and Anarchy -- The Matrix: Culture -- 3 A Crucial Test Case: Why the Baltic Is Not the Balkans -- How to Measure Transitions in the Baltic and the Balkans -- Casualties from Ethnic and Political Conflict -- Political, Economic, and Human Development -- Participation in Western Institutions -- Potential Explanations -- The Structures of Power -- Security Dilemmas and Commitment -- Economic Determinism -- Clashes of Civilizations -- 4 Culture and the Capacity to Cope with Complexity -- Myths and Mythmaking -- Individual Leaders -- The Capacity to Cope with Complexity -- Self-Organized Fitness in the Baltic Republics -- Top-Down Rule in the Balkans -- Human Capital -- Alternative Futures -- 5 Complexity Science as a Tool to Understand the New Eurasia -- Trends in Human Development: Variations That Need Explanation -- Zone A: Peace, Progress, and Democracy -- Zone B: Flawed Freedom -- Zone C: Turmoil and Slow Development -- Zone D: Statism and Stagnation -- Zone E: Between an Iron Fist and Anarchy -- Zone F: Economic Advance Without Political Freedom -- Democracy Ratings by Freedom House -- Zone A -- Zone B -- Zone C -- Zone D -- Zone E -- Zone F -- Political and Economic Transformations -- Transparency -- Incomes -- Fitness Challenged: Each Unhappy in Its Way -- Spawning Conditions.

Leading Cases -- Lithuania -- The Russian Federation -- Belarus -- Kazakhstan -- Latvia and Estonia -- Slovenia -- China -- Cuba -- Finland -- United States -- Paradoxes Prevail -- 6 How Complexity Concepts Explain Past and Present Fitness -- The Dangers of Transition -- Complexity Perspectives -- Self-Organization -- Coevolution -- Emergence -- Agent-Based Systems -- Self-Organized Criticality -- Punctuated Equilibrium -- Fitness Landscapes -- Predicting Ethnic Violence and Prescribing Remedies -- How to Acquire and Nurture Fitness -- The Upshot -- 7 Hyperpower Challenged: Prospects for Americans -- Understanding the Past -- Balance Sheet on the Twentieth Century -- The American Century in the Light of Complexity Science -- Self-Organized Fitness -- Interdependence -- Coevolution -- Emergence -- Agent-Based Systems -- Self-Organized Criticality -- Fitness Landscapes -- Culture -- Punctuated Equilibrium -- The Early Twenty-First Century -- Basic Resources -- Economic Power and Well-Being -- Political Cohesion and Justice -- Military Might -- Brain Power -- Public Safety -- Congruity with International Institutions -- The Scorecard -- 8 What Future for the American Dream? -- Punctuated Equilibrium -- Agents and Structures -- Human Capital and Self-Organization -- An Action Program from the Harvard Business School -- The Communist Manifesto -- Ishmael on Coping with Complexity -- Lesson 1: Human Diversity and Merit -- Lesson 2: How Sciences Can Jump Together -- Lesson 3: Fusing Theory and Practice -- Lesson 4: Mysteries of the Heart -- Lesson 5: "Our Divine Equality" -- Lesson 6: Empathy vs. Fanaticism -- Avoiding the Last New Mumbo-Jumbo -- 9 Why Is South Korea Not North Korea? -- Contrasts in Human Development -- How to Achieve Fitness: The Role of Self-Organization.

Do the Theories of Punctuated Equilibrium and Criticality Apply to Korea? -- Fitness Landscapes -- Interdependence -- Policy Implications -- How to Increase Fitness -- Can Outsiders Help? -- 10 Toward a New Paradigm for Global Studies -- Salient Problems in Global Politics: Insights from Complexity Science -- Issue 1. From Despotism to Chaos -- Issue 2. Hegemonic War or Mutual Gain? -- Issue 3. Security Dilemmas: Confrontation or Negotiation? -- Issue 4. Initiation and Spread of War -- Issue 5. Clashes of Civilizations -- Issue 6. The Rise and Fall of Empires -- Issue 7. Ethnic Repression and Ethnic Strife -- Issue 8. Haves and Have-Nots -- Issue 9. The Emergence of Cyberpower -- Issue 10. Terrorism -- Issue 11. Crime Across Borders -- Issue 12. Humans and the Biosphere: Rape or Positive Symbiosis? -- Issue 13. Crowd-Sourcing Reform and Wisdom -- Issue 14. Agents and Structure, Free Will and Forces -- 11 Challenges to Complexity Science -- Beyond Description -- Forecasting -- Policy Guidance -- Icarus or the Wright Brothers? -- Afterword: Science and Art in this Book: Exploring the Genome Together -- Notes -- References -- Index.