Indus Basin of Pakistan : The Impacts of Climate Risks on Water and Agriculture.
Title:
Indus Basin of Pakistan : The Impacts of Climate Risks on Water and Agriculture.
Author:
Yu, Winston.
ISBN:
9780821398753
Personal Author:
Physical Description:
1 online resource (211 pages)
Series:
Directions in Development
Contents:
Front Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- About the Authors -- Abbreviations -- Executive Summary -- Study Objective -- Policies and Plans -- Upper Indus Basin Hydrology and Glaciers -- Future Climate Scenarios -- Modeling Water, Climate, Food, and the Economy -- Climate Risk Scenarios -- Adaptation Investment Scenarios -- Conclusions -- Note -- References -- Chapter 1 Two Years in the Life of the Indus River Basin -- Background and Problem Statement -- Difficult Years for the Indus Basin: 2009-11 -- Study Approach: A Framework for Integrated Water and Agriculture Assessment -- Note -- References -- Chapter 2 The Current Water and Agriculture Context, Challenges, and Policies -- Key Messages -- Limited Water Storage -- Problematic Trends in Surface Water and Groundwater Usage -- Inflexible and Uncertain Water Allocation Institutions -- Low Water-Use Efficiencies and Productivity -- National Policies and Plans on Water and Agriculture -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 3 Hydrology and Glaciers in the Upper Indus Basin -- Key Messages -- The Indus River -- Hydrology of the Upper Indus Basin -- Glacier Climates of the Upper Indus Basin -- Distributed Process Models of Glaciers and Total Basin Runoff -- Climate and Stream Flow Variability in the Upper Indus Basin -- Note -- References -- Chapter 4 Future Climate Scenarios for the Indus Basin -- Key Messages -- Overview of Historical Patterns and Trends -- Future Climate Change Risks -- Future Climate in the Indus Basin Irrigation System -- Future Climate in the Upper Indus Basin -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 5 Modeling Water, Climate, Agriculture, and the Economy -- Section 1: Indus Basin Model Revised (IBMR-2012) -- Economic Objective -- Water Balance -- Input Data, Equations, Constraints, and Output Data -- Baseline: Year 2008/09.
Section 2: Computable General Equilibrium Model -- CGE Model Structure -- Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan -- Integration of the Two Models -- Model Limitations -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 6 Sensitivity and Scenario Results -- Key Messages -- Sensitivities of Hydrologic Parameters and the DIVACRD Constraint -- Future Climate Risk Scenarios -- Adaptation Investment Scenario Analyses -- Environmental Issues -- References -- Chapter 7 The Way Forward -- Key Messages -- Final Thoughts -- Appendix A Structure of IBMR -- Description of 12 Agro-Climatic Zones -- Appendix B IBMR Updating to IBMR 2008 -- Model Structure Change: The Lateral Groundwater Flow in IBMR -- Model Structure Change: The Refined Sugar and Sugar Cane Issue -- Model Structure Change: Removed Variables and Equations in IBMR 2008 -- Data Updating -- IBMR Model Diagnosis -- References -- Appendix C Details of the Pakistan Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) -- Figures -- Maps -- Tables -- Back Cover.
Abstract:
This book was undertaken at a pivotal time in the region. The weak summer monsoon in 2009 created drought conditions throughout Pakistan. This followed an already tenuous situation for many rural households faced with high fuel and fertilizer costs and the impacts of rising global food prices. Then catastrophic monsoon flooding in 2010 affected over 20 million people, devastating their housing, infrastructure, and crops. Damages from this single flood event were estimated at US10 billion, half of which were losses in the agriculture sector. Notwithstanding the debate as to whether these observed extremes are evidence of climate change, an investigation is needed regarding the extent to which the country is resilient to these shocks. It is thus timely, if not critical, to focus on climate risks for water, agriculture, and food security in the Indus Basin in Pakistan. This study uses several different modeling environments including hydrologic models, an agro-economic optimization model of the irrigation system, and a computable general equilibrium model of the Pakistan economy. The models used here are among the best mathematical representations available of the physical and economic responses to these exogenous future climate risks. The integrated systems framework used in this analysis provides a broad and unique approach to estimating the hydrologic and crop impacts of climate change risks, the macro-economic and household-level responses and an effective method for assessing a variety of adaptation investments and policies. A better understanding of how these sectors are linked will help plan future investments in these sectors. Further collection and analysis of critical input and output observations (e.g. snow and ice data) as well as practical measures for improving productivity under a changing climate will enhance this integrated
framework methodology and future climate impact assessments. Continued refinements to the assessment approach developed in this volume will further help to sharpen critical policies and interventions by the Pakistan government.
Local Note:
Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2017. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
Genre:
Electronic Access:
Click to View