Good Thinking : The Foundations of Probability and Its Applications.
Title:
Good Thinking : The Foundations of Probability and Its Applications.
Author:
Good, I.J.
ISBN:
9780816662654
Personal Author:
Physical Description:
1 online resource (352 pages)
Contents:
Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- Part I. Bayesian Rationality -- CHAPTER 1. Rational Decisions (#26) -- CHAPTER 2. Twenty-seven Principles of Rationality (#679) -- CHAPTER 3. 46656 Varieties of Bayesians (#765) -- CHAPTER 4. The Bayesian Influence, or How to Sweep Subjectivism under the Carpet (#838) -- Part II. Probability -- CHAPTER 5. Which Comes First, Probability or Statistics (#85A) -- CHAPTER 6. Kinds of Probability (#182) -- CHAPTER 7. Subjective Probability as the Measure of a Non-measurable Set (#230) -- CHAPTER 8. Random Thoughts about Randomness (#815) -- CHAPTER 9. Some History of the Hierarchical Bayesian Methodology (#1230) -- CHAPTER 10. Dynamic Probability, Computer Chess, and the Measurement of Knowledge (#938) -- Part III. Corroboration, Hypothesis Testing, Induction, and Simplicity -- CHAPTER 11. The White Shoe Is a Red Herring (#518) -- CHAPTER 12. The White Shoe qua Herring Is Pink (#600) -- CHAPTER 13. A Subjective Evaluation of Bode's Law and an "Objective" Test for Approximate Numerical Rationality (#603B) -- CHAPTER 14. Some Logic and History of Hypothesis Testing (#1234) -- CHAPTER 15. Explicativity, Corroboration, and the Relative Odds of Hypotheses (#846) -- Part IV. Information and Surprise -- CHAPTER 16. The Appropriate Mathematical Tools for Describing and Measuring Uncertainty (#43) -- CHAPTER 17. On the Principle of Total Evidence (#508) -- CHAPTER 18. A Little Learning Can Be Dangerous (#855) -- CHAPTER 19. The Probabilistic Explication of Information, Evidence, Surprise, Causality, Explanation, and Utility (#659) -- CHAPTER 20. Is the Size of Our Galaxy Surprising? (#814) -- Part V. Causality and Explanation -- CHAPTER 21. A Causal Calculus (#223B) -- CHAPTER 22. A Simplification in the "Causal Calculus" (#1336).
CHAPTER 23. Explicativity: A Mathematical Theory of Explanation with Statistical Applications (#1000) -- References -- Bibliography -- Subject Index of the Bibliography -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- J -- K -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- Q -- R -- S -- T -- U -- V -- W -- X -- Y -- Z -- Name Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- J -- K -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- R -- S -- T -- U -- V -- W -- Y -- Z -- Subject Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- J -- K -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- Q -- R -- S -- T -- U -- V -- W -- X -- Z.
Abstract:
Good Thinking is a representative sampling of I. J. Good's writing on a wide range of questions about the foundations of statistical inference, especially where induction intersects with philosophy. Good believes that clear reasoning about many important practical and philosophical questions is impossible except in terms of probability. This book collects from various published sources 23 of Good's articles with an emphasis on more philosophical than mathematical. He covers such topics as rational decisions, randomness, operational research, measurement of knowledge, mathematical discovery, artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, chess, and the nature of probability itself. In spite of the wide variety of topics covered, Good Thinking is based on a unified philosophy which makes it more than the sum of its parts. The papers are organized into five sections: Bayesian Rationality; Probability; Corroboration, Hypothesis Testing, and Simplicity; Information and Surprise; and Causality and Explanation. The numerous references, an extensive index, and a bibliography guide the reader to related modern and historic literature. This collection makes available to a wide audience, for the first time, the most accessible work of a very creative thinker. Philosophers of science, mathematicians, scientists, and, in Good's words, anyone who wants "to understand understanding, to reason about reasoning, to explain explanation, to think about thought, and to decide how to decide" will find Good Thinking a stimulating and provocative look at probability.
Local Note:
Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2017. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
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