THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ONAGRICULTURE, LAND RESOURCES,WATER RESOURCES,AND BIODIVERSITY IN THEUNITED STATES -- THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE, LAND RESOURCES, WATER RESOURCES, AND BIODIVERSITY IN THE UNITED STATES -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE* -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- 1. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND -- Scope -- Time Horizon -- Ascribing Confidence to Findings -- Climate Context -- 2. OVERARCHING CONCLUSIONS -- 3. KEY QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS -- 4. SECTORAL FINDINGS -- Agriculture -- Land Resources -- Water Resources -- Biodiversity -- INTRODUCTION -- INTENT OF THIS REPORT -- SCOPE OF THIS REPORT -- GUIDING QUESTIONS FOR THIS REPORT -- ASCRIBING CONFIDENCE TO FINDINGS -- TIME HORIZON FOR THIS REPORT -- GLOBAL CLIMATE CONTEXT -- U.S. CLIMATE CONTEXT -- Ecological and Biological Context -- ATTRIBUTION OF ECOSYSTEM CHANGES -- SUMMARY -- AGRICULTURE -- 2.1. INTRODUCTION -- 2.2. Observed Changes and Responses -- 2.2.1. Crops -- 2.2.2. Pastureland -- 2.2.3. Rangelands -- 2.2.4. Temperature Response of Animals -- 2.2.5. Episodes of Extreme Events -- 2.3. POSSIBLE FUTURE CHANGES AND IMPACTS -- 2.3.1. projections Based on Increment ofTemperature and CO2 for Crops -- 2.3.2. Projections for Weeds -- 2.3.3. Projections for Insects and Pathogens -- 2.3.4. projections for Rangelands -- 2.3.5. Climatic Influences on Livestock -- 2.4. OBSERVING/MONITORING SYSTEMS -- 2.4.1. Monitoring Relevant to Crops -- 2.4.2. Monitoring Relevant to Pasturelands -- 2.4.3. Monitoring Relevant to Rangelands -- 2.5. INTERACTIONS AMONG SYSTEMS -- 2.5.1. Climate Change and Sustainability of Pasturelands -- 2.6. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS -- 2.6.1. Crops -- 2.6.2. Weeds -- 2.6.3. Insects and Disease Pests -- 2.6.4. Pasturelands -- 2.6.5. Rangelands -- 2.6.6. Animal Production Systems -- LAND RESOURCES:FORESTS AND ARID LANDS -- 3.1. INTRODUCTION -- 3.2. FORESTS.

3.2.1. Brief Summary of Key Points from the Literature -- 3.2.2. Observed Changes or Trends -- 3.2.3. Possible Future Changes and Impacts -- 3.2.4. Indicators and Observing Systems -- 3.2.5. How Changes in One ResourceCan Affect Other Resources -- 3.3. ARID LANDS -- 3.3.1. Brief Summary of Key Points from the Literature -- 3.3.2. Observed and Predicted Changes or Trends -- 3.3.3. Species Distributions and Community Dynamics -- 3.3.4. Ecosystem Processes -- 3.3.5. Arid Land Rivers and Riparian Zones -- 3.3.6. Water and Wind Erosion -- 3.3.7. Indicators and Observing Systems -- 3.4. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS -- 3.4.1. Forests -- 3.4.2. Arid Lands -- 3.4.3. Observing Systems for Forests and Arid Lands -- WATER RESOURCES -- 4.1. INTRODUCTION -- 4.1.1. Hydroclimatic Variability in the United States -- 4.1.2. Characteristics of Managed WaterResources in the United States -- 4.1.3. U.S. Water Use and Water Use Trends -- 4.2. OBSERVED CHANGES INU.S.WATER RESOURCES -- 4.2.1. Observed Streamflow Trends -- 4.2.2. Evaporation Trends -- 4.2.3. U.S. Drought Trends -- 4.2.4. Regional Assessment of Changes in U.S. Water Resources -- 4.2.5. Water Quality -- 4.3. ATTRIBUTION OF CHANGES -- 4.4. FUTURE CHANGES AND IMPACTS -- 4.4.1. Hydrology and Water Resources -- 4.4.2. Water Quality -- 4.4.3. Groundwater -- 4.5. HYDROLOGY-LANDSCAPE INTERACTIONS -- 4.6. OBSERVING SYSTEMS -- 4.7. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS -- BIODIVERSITY -- 5.1. INTRODUCTION AND FRAMEWORK -- 5.2. CHANGES IN DISTRIBUTION AND PHENOLOGIESIN TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS -- 5.2.1. Growing Season Length andNet Primary Production Shifts -- 5.2.2. Biogeographical and Phenological Shifts -- 5.2.3. Geographical and Distributional Responses of Plants -- 5.3. CHANGES IN COASTAL AND NEAR-SHORE ECOSYSTEMS -- 5.3.1. Coral Reefs -- 5.3.2. Coastal Communities and Ecosystems.

5.4.CLIMATE CHANGE,MARINE FISHERIESAND MARINE ECOSYSTEM CHANGE -- 5.4.1. Other Climate-Driven Physical Forcesthat Affect Marine Ecosystems -- 5.4.2. Observed and Projected Impacts -- 5.5. CHANGES IN PESTS AND PATHOGENS -- 5.5.1. Interactions of Climate Change with Pests,Pathogens, and Invasive Species -- 5.6. PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE SYSTEMS -- 5.6.1. Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Ecosystems -- 5.6.2. Arctic Sea-Ice Ecosystems -- 5.7. ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND EXPECTATIONSFOR FUTURE CHANGE -- 5.8. ADEQUACY OF OBSERVING SYSTEMS -- 5.9.MAJOR FINDINGS -- 5.9.1. Growing Season and Phenology -- 5.9.2. Biogeographical and Phenological Shifts -- 5.9.3. Migratory Birds -- 5.9.4. Butterflies -- 5.9.5. Coastal and Near Shore Systems -- 5.9.6. Corals -- 5.9.7. Marine Fisheries -- 5.9.8. Pests and Pathogens -- 5.9.9. Invasive Plants -- 5.9.10. Particularly Sensitive Systems -- 5.9.11. Arctic Sea-Ice Ecosystems -- 5.10. CONCLUSIONS -- SYNTHESIS -- 6.1. INTRODUCTION -- 6.2. KEY QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS -- 6.3. DESIGNING SYSTEMS TO MONITORCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS -- 6.4. INTEGRATION OF ECO- SYSTEM OBSERVATIONS,MODELING,EXPERIMENTS AND ANALYSIS -- 6.5. OVERARCHING CONCLUSIONS -- INDEX.