Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst -- Contents -- Foreword -- Preface: Is There a Bubble in Boom-Bust Books? -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction: The Study of Financial Extremes: One-Armed Analysts, Secrets, Mysteries -- Secrets versus Mysteries -- Different Problems Necessitate Different Approaches -- Financial Booms and Busts as Mysteries -- Part I: Five Lenses -- Chapter 1: Microeconomic Perspectives: To Equilibrium or Not? -- "Random Walks" and Accurate Prices: The Efficient Market Hypothesis -- Constant Instability and Inefficiency: The Theory of Reflexivity Reconciling Efficiency and Reflexivity -- Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Perspectives: The Impact of Debt and Deflation on Asset Markets and Prices -- The Magnifying Power of Leverage -- Collateral Rates and Debt Dynamics -- Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis -- Debt Deflation and Asset Prices -- The Austrian Business Cycle Theory -- Integrating the Macro Lenses -- Chapter 3: The Psychology Lens: Homo economicus Meets Homo sapiens -- The Study of Irrationality Is Born -- Heuristics Gone Wild: How Rules of Thumb Lead Us Astray -- Our Flawed Brains: Other Cognitive Issues -- The Certainty of Uncertainty -- Chapter 4: Biological Frameworks: Epidemiology and Emergence Mechanisms, and Political Distortions -- Can Anyone Own Anything? -- Prices: To Guide or Be Guided? -- Political Distortions of Property and Price -- Chapter 5: Biological Frameworks: Epidemiology and Emergence -- Revealing the Maturity of an Unsustainable Boom -- How Micro Simplicity Drives Macro Complexity -- Emergent Behavior in Human Swarms -- The Blind Leading the Blind -- Part II: Historical Case Studies -- Chapter 6: Tulipomania: A Bubble in Seventeenth-Century Holland -- The Uniqueness of Tulips -- Fertile Soil for Bubble Formation -- The Boombustology of Tulipomania -- The Multilens Look.

Chapter 7: The Great Depression: From Roaring Twenties to Yawning Thirties -- Castles in the Sand -- From Booming Twenties to Busted Thirties -- The Boombustology of the Great Depression -- The Multilens Look -- Chapter 8: The Japanese Boom and Bust: A Credit-Fueled Bubble Economy -- Japan(ese) as Different -- An Overview of the Bubble Economy -- The Boombustology of the Japanese Boom and Bust -- The Multilens Look -- Chapter 9: The Asian Financial Crisis: The Mirage of a Miracle -- Boom Times in East Asia -- Thailand Catches the Flu -- The Boombustology of the Asian Financial Crisis -- The Multilens Look -- Chapter 10: The U.S. Housing Boom and Bust: The Homeowner's Society Creates the People's Panic -- "Safe as Houses" -- The Music Stops -- The Boombustology of the U.S. Housing Boom and Bust -- The Multilens Look -- Part III: Looking Ahead -- Chapter 11: Spotting Bubbles before They Burst: A Method for Identifying Unsustainable Booms -- Reflexivity and Self-Fulfilling Dynamics -- Leverage, Financial Innovation, and Cheap Money -- Overconfidence -- Policy-Driven Distortions -- Epidemics and Emergence -- Conclusions -- Chapter 12: Boombustology in Action: Is China Next? -- Tendencies toward Equilibrium -- Leverage, Cheap Money, and Potential Deflation -- Conspicuous Consumption and Overconfidence -- Rights, Moral Hazard, and Political Distortion -- Consensus, Silent Leadership, and Epidemics -- The Unsustainable Chinese Story -- Conclusion: Hedgehogs, Foxes, and the Dangers of Making Predictions -- Notes -- About the Author -- Index.