Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Overview -- Introduction -- Red to Gray: A Unique Demographic Transition -- Red Light to Green Light: Growing Older Does Not Have to Mean Growing Slower -- Red Ink to Black Ink: Waging Sensible Policies Can Ease Aging's Spending Impact -- Completing and Building on the Transitions: The Different Paths Ahead -- Notes -- 1. The Demographic Transition in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union -- Introduction -- The Global Demographic Transition -- The Demographic Transition in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 1950-2000 -- Demographic Projections to 2025 -- Population Change and Dependency Rates -- Two Distinct Demographic Profiles: Old Countries and Young Countries -- Conclusion -- Notes -- 2. Demographic Change and Labor Markets -- Introduction -- Labor Force Projections -- Implications of an Aging Labor Force for Labor Market Outcomes -- Aging and Labor Productivity -- Policy Implications -- Annex 2.A: ILO Labor Force Projection Methodologies -- Annex 2.B: Labor Force Participation Projections, 2005-20 -- Annex 2.C: Changes in Working-Age Population -- Annex 2.D: Participation Rates in Countries of the Region -- Notes -- 3. Aging, Savings, and Financial Markets -- Introduction -- Aging and Saving Behavior -- Aging and Financial Markets -- Policy Implications -- Annex 3.A: Gross Domestic Savings in Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries -- Annex 3.B: Selected Financial Sector Indicators -- Notes -- 4. Aging and Pension Expenditures -- Introduction -- Current Pension Systems in Countries of the Region -- Projected Impact of Aging on Pension Spending -- Prospects for Further Parametric Reform -- Reform Options -- Notes -- 5. Aging, Long-Term Care, and Public Expenditures -- Introduction -- Aging and Health Expenditures -- Projections of Public Expenditures on Health.

Long-Term Care -- Policy Implications -- Annex 5.A: Legislation on Long-Term Care in Europe -- Annex 5.B: Gross Domestic Product and Public Expenditures on Health -- Annex 5.C: Elderly Dependent Population -- Annex 5.D: Sensitivity of Projection Results to Data Assumptions -- Notes -- 6. Aging and Education -- Introduction -- How Education Systems Have Changed Since Transition -- Impact of Projected Demographic Changes on Enrollments -- Improved Productivity through Better Education Systems -- Policy Implications -- Annex 6.A: Aging and Education: Data Tables -- Notes -- References -- Boxes -- O.1 Demographic Projections -- O.2 Pronatalist Policies in Europe -- 1.1 Key Definitions in Demography -- 1.2 Fertility Declines and Improvement in Longevity in Selected Countries, 1950-2000 -- 1.3 Demographic Projections -- 2.1 How Does Productivity Change with Age for Different Tasks? -- 2.2 What Do Wage Trends Tell Us about How Productivity Changes with Age? -- 2.3 Computing Returns to Education -- 3.1 Definitions of Saving Terms -- 3.2 When Can Aging Lead to Greater Savings? -- 3.3 What Role Does Cross-Border Capital Mobility Have in Financial Markets? -- 3.4 Key Pension Fund Concepts -- 3.5 Aging and Asset Meltdown -- 4.1 Glossary of Pension Terms -- 6.1 How Are Education Systems Implicated in the Process of Demographic Change? -- 6.2 Reforms Needed in Education Systems -- 6.3 Fundamental Problems with Current Financing Formulas -- Figures -- O.1 The Region's Different Mixes of Demographic and Economic Transition -- O.2 Most Countries in the Region Will Have Significant Population Decreases Between 2000 and 2025 -- O.3 The Proportion of Population Aged 65+ Will be Much Higher by 2025 -- O.4 Countries Face Different Mixes of Demographic and Economic Transition.

O.5 In the Region, Labor productivity Has Had a Stronger Impact on Growth Than Aging (1998-2005) -- O.6 Financial Markets in Even the More Developed Economies of the Region are Shallower Than Those in Other OECD Countries -- O.7 Pension Spending Would Rise Significantly Because of the Aging Effect, But Can Be Moderated by Reforms . . . -- O.8 . . .Indeed, in Some Countries, Pension Reforms Already Undertaken Will Moderate the Impact of Aging -- O.9 Retirement Ages Are Lower in the Region Than in Higher-Income Countries -- O.10 Modest Social Pensions Would Generally be Affordable -- O.11 Public Health Care Costs Are Likely to Rise Only Slightly in Most Aging Countries in the Region by 2020 -- O.12 School-Age Populations Will Shrink in All Countries Except Tajikistan . . . -- O.13 . . . But Improved Coverage Will Lead to Fast Growth in Secondary and Higher Enrollments in Many Countries -- 1.1 Global Total Fertility Rates, 1950-2050 -- 1.2 Global Life Expectancy, 1950-2050 -- 1.3 Total Fertility Rates in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 1950-2000 -- 1.4 Male Life Expectancy at Birth in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 1950-2000 -- 1.5 Female Life Expectancy at Birth in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 1950-2000 -- 1.6 Absolute and Relative Change in Population Size in Selected European and Former Soviet Countries, 1950-2000 -- 1.7 Proportion of Population 65 Years and Older in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 1950-2000 -- 1.8 Median Age in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 1950-2000 -- 1.9 Projected Fertility Rates in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, 2000-25 -- 1.10 Projected Trends in Life Expectancy at Birth for Males in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25.

1.11 Projected Trends in Life Expectancy at Birth for Females in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25 -- 1.12 Population Growth Rates in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, 2000-25 -- 1.13 Projected Change in Population Size in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25 -- 1.14 Projected Change in the Population Share 65 Years and Older in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25 -- 1.15 Projected Change in the Population Share 0-14 Years in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25 -- 1.16 Projected Change in the Population Share 15-64 Years in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25 -- 1.17 Projected Increases in Median Ages in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25 -- 1.18 Child Dependency Rates in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25 -- 1.19 Elderly Dependency Rates in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25 -- 1.20 Total Dependency Rates in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25 -- 1.21 Proportion of the Projected Population 65 Years and Older in 2025 and Percentage of Change in Population Size between 2000 and 2025 in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union -- 1.22 Population Age Structure of Bulgaria, 2000 and 2025 -- 1.23 Population Age Structure of Tajikistan, 2000 and 2025 -- 2.1 Relative and Absolute Changes in Working-Age Population, 15-64 Years, Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, 2005-25 -- 2.2 Immigration and Emigration Flows for Eastern European and Former Soviet Subregions, Western Europe, North America, and Israel, 2000-03 -- 2.3 Change in Male and Female Labor Force Participation Rates for Older-Age Categories, Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, 1980-2003.

2.4 Participation Rates of Labor Force 50 to 64 Years by Educational Attainment in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.5 Marginal Effect of Age on Labor Force Participation of Females in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.6 Marginal Effect of Age on Labor Force Participation of Males in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.7 Marginal Effect of Age on Unemployment of Females in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.8 Marginal Effect of Age on Unemployment of Males in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.9 Informal Share of Wage Employment in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.10 Marginal Effect of Age on Weekly Hours of Employment for Females in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.11 Marginal Effect of Age on Weekly Hours of Employment for Males in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.12 Marginal Effect of Age on Wages for Females in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.13 Marginal Effect of Age on Wages for Males in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.14 Returns to Years of Education for Older and Younger Cohorts in Selected Countries -- 2.A.1 ILO Estimates and Projections of the Economically Active Population, 1980-2020 -- 2.B.1 Labor Force Participation Projections under Different Scenarios, Kyrgyz Republic, 2005-20 -- 2.B.2 Labor Force Participation Projections under Different Scenarios, Turkey, 2005-20 -- 2.B.3 Labor Force Participation Projections under Different Scenarios, Bulgaria, 2005-20.

2.B.4 Labor Force Participation Projections under Different Scenarios, Czech Republic, 2005-20.