Cover -- CONTENTS -- TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXES -- Tables -- 2.1 Geographic and Topographic Profiles of Pacific Countries -- 2.2 Share of Pacific Economies Dependent on Natural Resources -- 2.3 Key Activiaties in Economic Sectors of the Pacific Region -- 2.4 Area of Agricultural Land in the Pacific Countries, 2011 -- 3.1 List of GCMs Used in the Analysis -- 4.1 Selected Disaster Statistics for Countries of the Pacific, 1950-2012 -- 4.2 Losses from Different Types of Natural Disasters in the Pacific, 1950-2004 -- 4.3 Changes in Expected Frequencies of Cyclones in Basins of the Pacific, 2011 -- 4.4 Estimates of Sea-Level Rise Relative to 2010 (meters) -- 4.5 Estimates of Land Area Inundated Relative to 2010 -- 5.1 Crop-Yield Effects (%) under the A1B Emissions Scenario Relative to a 1981-2000 Baseline -- 5.2 Relative Changes in Crop Yields (%) under Climate Change in Year 2050 Relative to Year 2000 under the A1B Scenario -- 5.3 Per Capita Fish Consumption in Pacific Countries (kg/year/person) -- 5.4 Percentage Changes in Catches of Skipjack and Bigeye Tuna Relative to 1980-2000 Period under the B1 and A2 Emissions Scenarios -- 5.5 Selected Summary Statistics Regarding Health in Pacific Countries -- 6.1 Summary Description of Climate Scenarios -- 6.2 Global Climate Results in FUND3.6 and PAGE09 -- 6.3 Annual Average Adaptation Cost over the Period 2010-2050 with 2100 Adaptation Targets -- 6.4 Annual Average Adaptation Cost over the Period 2010-2050 with 2050 Adaptation Targets -- 7.1 Sector-Specific Low-Regret Adaptation Options for the Pacific -- Figures -- 2.1 Map of the Pacific Region -- 2.2 Average Annual Growth in Real GDP Per Capita, 2000-2012 (%) -- 3.1 Modeling Framework -- 3.2 Dynamic Crop Simulation Model -- 4.1 Temperature Change under A1B Scenario: Fiji, PNG, and Samoa.

4.2 Temperature Change under A1B Scenario: Solomon, Timor-Leste, and Vanuatu -- 4.3 Distribution of SST Anomalies, A1B and A2 Scenarios -- 4.4 Climate change Impact on ENSO Events -- 4.5 ENSO Impact on Rainfall in Fiji: Baseline and A1B (mm/day/1oC) -- 4.6 ENSO Impact on Rainfall in PNG: Baseline and A1B (mm/day/1oC) -- 4.7 ENSO Impact on Rainfall in Samoa: Baseline and A1B (mm/day/1oC) -- 4.8 ENSO Impact on Rainfall in Solomon Islands: Baseline and A1B (mm/day/1oC) -- 4.9 ENSO Impact on Rainfall in Timor-Leste: Baseline and A1B (mm/day/1oC) -- 4.10 ENSO Impact on Rainfall in Vanuatu: Baseline and A1B (mm/day/1oC) -- 4.11 Extreme Temperature, Wind Speed, and Rainfall in Fiji -- 4.12 Extreme Temperature, Wind Speed, and Rainfall in PNG -- 4.13 Extreme Temperature, Wind Speed, and Rainfall in Samoa -- 4.14 Extreme Temperature, Wind Speed, and Rainfall in Solomon Islands -- 4.15 Extreme Temperature, Wind Speed, and Rainfall in Timor-Leste -- 4.16 Extreme Temperature, Wind Speed, and Rainfall in Vanuatu -- 5.1 Annual Value of Production of Leading Agricultural Products in the Pacific Region, 2011 -- 5.2 Shares of Gross Domestic Product from Fisheries, 2007 (%) -- 5.3 Impact of Climate Change on Total Regional Tourism Revenue under the A1 Scenario -- 5.4 Impact of Climate Change on National Tourism Revenue under the A1 Scenario -- 5.5 Projection of Coral Cover in the Pacific with Climate Change (FUND3.6) -- 5.6 Direct and Indirect Health Effects of Climate Change -- 5.7 Health Cost of Climate Change in the Pacific under A1B Scenario (as a % of projected GDP) -- 5.8 Contributors to Mortality Cost due to Climate Change in the Pacific -- 6.1 Climate change Cost in the Pacific (FUND3.6) -- 6.2 Climate change Cost in the Pacific (PAGE09) -- 6.3 Sectoral Composition of Climate change Costs (FUND3.6 and A2 Scenario).

6.4 Country-Specific Cost of Climate Change (Fund3.6 and A2 Scenario) -- 6.5 Cost of Climate Change by Sector (FUND3.6 and A2 Scenario) -- 6.6 Probability Distribution of Global Mean Temperature Rise under A1FI Scenario (PAGE09) -- 6.7 Probability Distribution of Global Sea-Level Rise under A1FI Scenario (PAGE09) -- 6.8 Probabilistic Cost of Climate Change under A1FI Scenario -- 7.1 Sector-Specific Low-Regret Adaptation Options for the Pacific -- Boxes -- 3.1 Emissions Scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios -- 3.2 The FUND3.6 Model -- 3.3 The PAGE09 Model -- 3.4 Climate change Modeling Uncertainties -- 4.1 El Niño-Southern Oscillation -- 5.1 Potential Effects of Projected Changes to Surface Tuna Fishery on Economic Development and Government Revenue -- 5.2 Pacific Coral Reefs and Climate Change -- 6.1 On the Use of IAMs and Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change -- 6.2 On 450ppm -- 7.1 ADB Climate change Program for the Pacific -- Abbreviations -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Executive Summary -- Chapter 1 Introduction -- Chapter 2 Vulnerability of the Pacific Nations to Climate Change -- I: Overview of Geographic and Environmental Features -- II: Demographic and Economic Factors -- III: Vulnerabilities to Specific Aspects of Climate Change -- Chapter 3 Framework and Methodology -- I: Study Framework and Modeling -- II: Methodology and Key Assumptions -- A. Emissions Scenarios -- B. Component 1: Climate Modeling -- C. Component 2: Sector Impact Assessment -- D. Component 3: Economic Assessment -- III: Caveats and Limitations -- Chapter 4 Climate Scenarios for the Pacific -- I: Temperature -- II: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation -- III: ENSO Rainfall -- A. Fiji -- B. Papua New Guinea -- C. Samoa -- D. Solomon Islands -- E. Timor-Leste -- F. Vanuatu -- IV: Extreme weather Events -- A. Fiji -- B. Papua New Guinea.

C. Samoa -- D. Solomon Islands -- E. Timor-Leste -- F. Vanuatu -- V: Cyclone Risk -- VI: Sea-Level Rise -- Chapter 5 Sectoral Implications of Climate Change in the Pacific -- I: Agriculture -- A. Effects of Climate Change on Selected Crop Production -- B. Evidence for Other Crops -- C. Effects of Climate Change on Livestock Production -- II: Marine and Coastal Impacts of Climate Change in the Pacific -- A. Characteristics of the Marine Economy -- B. Fisheries -- III: Tourism -- IV: Decline in Coral Reefs -- V: Health -- A. Climate change Effects on Health -- B. Estimated Impacts of Climate Change on Health in the Pacific -- Chapter 6 Economic Implications of Climate Change in the Pacific -- I: Climate Scenarios in FUND3.6 and PAGE09 -- II: Regional Economic Impacts of Climate Change -- III: Sectoral Composition of Total Economic Impact -- IV: Country-level Cost of Climate Change -- V: Preparing for Catastrophic Risk -- VI: Economics of Adaptation in the Pacific -- Chapter 7 Summary and Policy Implications -- I: Summary of Findings -- II: Policy Implications.