Cover -- Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- About the Contributors -- Abbreviations -- Key Messages -- Overview -- Africa's Infrastructure: A Key to Development but Potentially Vulnerable to Climate Change -- Risk of Inaction -- Adaptation to Climate Change under Uncertainty -- Adaptation to Climate Change at the Project Level -- Recommendations -- 1 Africa's Power and Water Infrastructure -- PIDA's Key Conclusions -- Scope and Time Horizon of the Study -- Value Added of the Report -- Limitations of the Analysis -- Notes -- References -- 2 Methodology -- Conceptual Framework -- Track 1: Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation at the Planning Stage -- Reference Case -- Estimation of Costs and Benefits -- Perfect Foresight Adaptation -- Robust Adaptation -- Water and Power System Modeling Tools -- Track 2 Analysis -- Notes -- References -- 3 Climate Change Projections in Africa -- Developing Climate Change Projections -- Temperature and Precipitation Results by Basin -- Note -- 4 Reference Investment Scenario -- Infrastructure Expansion beyond PIDA: PIDA+ -- Methodology -- Results -- Note -- References -- 5 Impacts of Climate Change on Infrastructure Performance -- Basin-Scale Performance of Infrastructure Relative to Overall Performance Targets -- Economic Costs of Ignoring Climate Change -- Note -- Reference -- 6 Adaptation to Climate Change in Infrastructure Planning -- Basin-Scale Analysis Overview: Scope and Value of Adaptation -- Perfect Foresight Adaptation -- Benefit of Perfect Foresight Adaptations across Climate Futures -- Regretting Adaptation When the Future Climate Is Unknown -- Robust Adaptation -- Inside Robust Adaptation -- Cost of Adaptation -- Benefits of Robust Adaptation to Electricity Consumers -- Role of Power Trade in Adaptation -- Combination of Robust Decision Making and Adaptive Management -- Note.

References -- 7 Adaptation to Climate Change in Project Design -- Project-Scale Analysis Overview: Scope of Adaptation -- Choice of Methodology and Test Projects -- Results: Sensitivity and Vulnerability to Climate at the Project Scale -- Results: Illustration of Robust Design at the Project Scale -- Conclusions -- Lessons Learned and Insights for Broader Application -- Notes -- References -- 8 Recommendations -- Need for a Paradigm Shift in How Large Infrastructure Is Planned and Designed -- Toward a Paradigm Shift : Recommendations for Short-Term Action -- Note -- Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- J -- K -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- R -- S -- T -- U -- V -- W -- Z -- Boxes -- O.1 Criteria Used for Robust Adaptation -- O.2 Illustrative Adaptation Results for the Zambezi River Basin -- O.3 Illustrative Adaptation Results for the Batoka Gorge Project -- O.4 What Does It Take to Integrate Climate Change into Project Design? -- 1.1 Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostics: Key Findings and Estimated Financing Gaps -- 1.2 Key Previous Studies on Climate Change and Infrastructure in Africa -- 2.1 Discount Rates -- 2.2 Criteria Used for Robust Adaptations -- 2.3 Special Considerations for Modeling Peaking Hydropower Plants -- 3.1 A Technical Summary of the Methods for Developing Climate Futures -- 3.2 Comparison of Climate Projections in This Study with Those in the Turn Down the Heat Reports -- 4.1 The Inga 3 and Grand Inga Hydropower Projects in the Congo Basin -- 5.1 Impacts of Climate Change in the Upper Orange Basin -- 6.1 Sensitivity Analysis for a Hydropower Peaking Plant: Niger Basin -- 7.1 Test Project Descriptions -- Figures -- O.1 Planned Expansion of Hydropower and Irrigation Capacity -- O.2 Climate Change Projections across Africa's River Basins.

O.3 Changes in Physical Performance of Hydropower and Irrigation under Climate Change in the Congo, Orange, and Zambezi Basins, 2015-50 -- O.4 Changes in Hydropower Revenues from Climate Change, 2015-50 -- O.5 Changes in Irrigation Revenues from Climate Change, 2015-50 -- O.6 Change in Cumulative Consumer Expenditure on Electricity Relative to the Reference Case -- O.7 Cumulative Expenditure on Agricultural Imports -- O.8 Gains from Perfect Foresight Adaptation in Hydropower -- O.9 Damage from Not Adapting or Misadapting Hydropower Expansion Plans -- O.10 Reducing Regrets through Robust Adaptation -- O.11 Incremental Cost of Robust Adaptation in Hydropower -- BO.2.1 Estimates of Regret for Different Adaptation Strategies in the Zambezi Basin -- O.12 Sensitivity to Climate Change of Case Study Projects -- O.13 Reducing Regrets through Adaptation in Case Study Projects -- 2.1 Schematic of Model Interactions to Estimate the Cost of Climate Change to Infrastructure -- 2.2 Two-Stage Optimization Scheme -- 2.3 Schematic of the Perfect Foresight Adaptation Optimization Tool -- 3.1 Illustration of Model Variation for Temperature and Precipitation Futures, Volta Basin -- 3.2 Comparison of Aridity for the Study River Basins -- 3.3 Climate Futures in 2050 for the Congo, Orange, and Zambezi Basins -- 3.4 Climate Futures in 2050 for the Niger, Senegal, and Volta Basins -- 3.5 Climate Futures in 2050 for the Nile Basin -- 3.6 Representative Climate Futures for West African Basins -- 3.7 Representative Climate Futures for Southern African Basins -- 3.8 Representative Climate Futures for the Nile Basin -- 5.1 Infrastructure Performance under Climate Change for SAPP Basins: Existing and Planned Infrastructure, 2015-50 -- 5.2 Infrastructure Performance under Climate Change for WAPP Basins: Existing and Planned Infrastructure, 2015-50.

5.3 Infrastructure Performance under Climate Change for the Nile Basin: Existing and Planned Infrastructure, 2015-50 -- 5.4 Economic Impacts of Climate Change for SAPP Basins, Absent Adaptation -- B5.1.1 Economic Impacts of Climate Change for Current Investments in SAPP Basins, Absent Adaptation -- 5.5 Economic Impacts of Climate Change for WAPP Basins, Absent Adaptation -- 5.6 Economic Implications of Climate Change for the Nile Basin, Absent Adaptation -- 5.7 Economic Impacts of Climate Change for All Basins, New Infrastructure, Absent Adaptation, in Present Value, with 3 Percent Discount Rate, 2015-50 -- 5.8 Economic Impacts of Climate Change for All Basins, New Hydropower Infrastructure, Absent Adaptation, in Present Value, with 3 Percent Discount Rate, 2015-50 -- 5.9 Economic Impacts of Climate Change for All Basins, New Irrigation Infrastructure, Absent Adaptation, in Present Value, with 3 Percent Discount Rate, 2015-50 -- 5.10 Relative Vulnerability of Consumer Expenditures on Electricity to Climate Extremes, 2015-50 -- 5.11 Cost of Electric Power and Fuel Mix for SAPP, 2010-50 -- 5.12 Projected Fuel Mix for Mozambique under Climate Change, 2010-50 -- 6.1 Flow of Perfect Foresight and Robust Adaptation Analyses -- 6.2 Gains from Perfect Foresight Adaptations: Hydropower -- 6.3 Estimates of the Economic Value of Investing in Climate Change Adaptation, for the Zambezi and Volta Basins: Hydropower Only -- 6.4 Estimates of the Economic Value of Investing in Climate Change Adaptation for the Zambezi and Volta Basins: New PIDA+ Irrigation Facilities -- 6.5 Damage from Not Adapting or Misadapting Hydropower Expansion Plans -- 6.6 Regret of PIDA+ and Perfect Foresight Adaptations across the Range of Climate Futures for the Zambezi and Volta Basins -- 6.7 Benefits of Robust Adaptation Compared with PIDA+ in Each Basin: Hydropower Only.

6.8 Benefits of Robust Adaptation Compared with PIDA+ in Each Basin: Irrigation Only -- 6.9 Changes in Baseline Investments under Robust Adaptation -- 6.10 Cost of Robust Adaptation for Hydropower -- 6.11 Effects of Robust Adaptation on Consumer Energy Expenditures -- 6.12 Total Electricity Exports vs. Hydropower Generation, SAPP -- 6.13 Cost of Electricity Comparison: Base, Dry, and Wet Scenarios -- 6.14 Perfect Foresight Adaptation Strategies in Volta Basin Compared with PIDA+ -- 7.1 Annual Cycle of Precipitation for Each Test Project Based on the Historical Record -- 7.2 Range of Historical and Annual Projected Precipitation Changes by 2050 for the Five Watersheds, from 121 Climate Projections from the Global Climate Models -- 7.3 Hydrology and Evaporation Effects on Hydropower Production from the Pwalugu Multipurpose Project across Climate Projections -- 7.4 Mean Batoka Gorge Annual Hydropower Generation versus Mean Annual River Flow across 121 Climate Projections and Historical Climate -- 7.5 Safe Yield for Mwache Dam across 121 Climate Projections -- 7.6 Summary of Vulnerability of Projects across Climates, before Design Adaptation -- 7.7 Lower Fufu Project: Average Hydropower Generation, Levelized Cost, and Levelized Cost Regret across Design Alternatives and Climate Projections -- 7.8 Potential Economic Benefits That Derive from Adapting Project Design -- 7.9 Low-Regret Designs for Each Climate Projection for the Lower Fufu Project -- 7.10 Potential for Robust Adaptation to Reduce Regrets -- 7.11 Typology of Project Vulnerability and Adaptation Benefits -- Maps -- O.1 Location of Case Study Projects -- 1.1 Summary of PIDA Energy Infrastructure Development Proposals and Priorities -- 1.2 Selected River Basins and Power Pools in Africa -- 7.1 Test Project Locations -- Tables -- O.1 Costs and Benefits of Robust Adaptation.

2.1 Framework for Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on the Energy Sector.