Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Overview -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 1 Prospects for the Global Economy -- Summary of the medium-term outlook -- Global growth surged to 3.9 percent in 2006 -- Regional outlooks -- Financial markets -- World trade -- Commodity markets -- Downside risks predominate -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 2 The Coming Globalization -- The evidence of globalization -- The world in 2030-the big picture -- The four channels of globalization -- What will happen if growth is slower-or faster-in the next 25 years? -- Challenges of the coming globalization -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 3 Income Distribution, Inequality, and Those Left Behind -- The global distribution of income -- Within-country inequality and poverty reduction -- Policy implications -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 4 New Pressures in Labor Markets: Integrating Large Emerging Economies and the Global Sourcing of Services -- The impact of globalization: the story so far -- New challenge I-absorbing large emerging economies into the global market -- New challenge II-global sourcing of services -- Policies to confront the labor market challenges of globalization -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 5 Managing the Environmental Risks to Growth -- The immediate risk of epidemics -- The medium-term risks to marine fisheries -- The long-term risk of climate change -- Conclusions and policy recommendations -- Notes -- References -- Appendix: Regional Economic Prospects -- Figures -- 1.1 Industrial production may be slowing -- 1.2 Regional growth trends -- 1.3 Inflation has increased moderately -- 1.4 Inflation is rising in high-income countries -- 1.5 Signs of overheating in some developing countries -- 1.6 Despite turbulence, financing conditions remain favorable -- 1.7 Private capital flows to developing countries remain strong.

1.8 Ample liquidity keeps long-term interest rates low -- 1.9 Global demand shifts from the United States to Europe and developing countries -- 1.10 A start to orderly adjustment? -- 1.11 Interest rate spreads support the dollar -- 1.12 Turbulence resulted in sharp depreciations for some developing countries -- 1.13 Rotation in global trade -- 1.14 China's exports exceed those of the United States -- 1.15 Diverging trends in commodity prices -- 1.16 Oil prices continue to rise -- 1.17 Higher prices slow oil demand -- 1.18 A disappointing supply response -- 1.19 Spare production capacity remains low -- 1.20 After rising rapidly, housing price growth slows sharply -- 2.1 World trade has expanded dramatically . . . -- 2.2 . . . and become more diversified . . . -- 2.3 . . . than increase in migrants-in particular toward high-income countries . . . -- 2.4 . . . and a sharp rise in capital flows -- 2.5 Diffusion of traditional technologies has been slow, except in high-growth regions . . . -- 2.6 . . . but the uptake of new technologies has been faster -- 2.7 World population growth will be concentrated in developing countries in coming decades -- 2.8 Developing countries will account for a larger portion of world output in coming decades -- 2.9 In some developing regions, per capita incomes will begin to converge with those in high-income countries -- 2.10 Labor force growth is slowing -- 2.11 Due to the demographic dividend, fewer resources will be needed for a declining youth population -- 2.12 More resources will be needed to take care of a growing elderly population -- 2.13 Future-flow securitizations in developing countries, 1990-2004 -- 2.14a Past global growth . . . -- 2.14b . . . has been around 2 percent per capita for high-income regions . . . -- 2.14c . . . and much more volatile in developing countries.

2.15 More acceleration in growth is possible -- 2.16 Wages outpace profit income -- 3.1 Middle-class expansion is sensitive to growth assumptions -- 3.2 World tourism is expected to double between 2004 and 2020 -- 3.3 The world's poor may be concentrated in Africa -- 3.4 By 2030, East and South Asia are likely to move up the global income distribution ladder, while other regions will lag -- 3.5 Migration out of agriculture reduces poverty more when education is more equally distributed -- 3.6 Changes in inequality are mainly due to economic shifts -- 3.7 Inequality hampers the potential of growth to reduce poverty -- 3.8 Restricting intersectoral mobility can lead to large increases in inequality -- 3.9 Ending aid would hurt the poor -- 3.10 Global trade reform can be pro-poor -- 3.11 The inequality effects of trade liberalization are not large and depend on the structure of initial protection -- 4.1 Developed countries' imports of manufactures increasingly come from developing countries -- 4.2 In many developed countries the gap between high- and low-income earners has widened -- 4.3 Average wages in China have increased more than in other countries -- 4.4 China's imports from developing countries have surged over the last two decades -- 4.5 Developing-country exports of business services are growing rapidly -- 4.6 Low-income countries depend heavily on import duties for tax revenues -- 5.1 The SARS epidemic was contained in a matter of months -- 5.2 Total marine fish catch has leveled off -- 5.3 Temperatures have increased rapidly since the Industrial Revolution -- 5.4 Temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions have risen -- 5.5 Greenhouse gas emissions have long-term effects -- 5.6 Carbon emissions from developing countries are set to rise -- 5.7 Global trading in carbon emissions has mushroomed -- Tables -- 1.1 The global outlook in summary.

2.1 Services exports rise in line with goods exports -- 2.2 Country rankings-1980-2005 -- 2.3 Regional breakdown of poverty in developing countries -- 3.1 The global middle class is growing, its composition changing -- 3.2 Where the return to education is high, its poverty-reducing impact is also high -- 3.3 Some factors affect the probability of being in the lowest income decile more than others-and the differences are changing over time -- 4.1 Employment in developing countries has shifted out of agriculture into manufactures and services -- 4.2 In 2030 most workers will be in developing countries and unskilled -- 5.1 Progress in providing many global public goods is limited -- 5.2 Uncertainty and incentives affect international institutions -- A.1 East Asia and the Pacific forecast summary -- A.2 East Asia and the Pacific country forecasts -- A.3 Europe and Central Asia forecast summary -- A.4 Europe and Central Asia country forecasts -- A.5 Latin America and the Caribbean forecast summary -- A.6 Latin America and the Caribbean country forecasts -- A.7 Middle East and North Africa forecast summary -- A.8 Middle East and North Africa country forecasts -- A.9 South Asia forecast summary -- A.10 South Asia country forecasts -- A.11 Sub-Saharan Africa forecast summary -- A.12 Sub-Saharan Africa country forecasts -- Boxes -- 2.1 Inside the box-the components of scenario building -- 2.2 Challenge of geopolitical shifts for long-term economic forecasts: lessons of history -- 3.1 Changes in demographic structure, occupational choices, and factor rewards determine the authors' hypothetical 2030 world income distribution -- 3.2 Aggregate economic performance: distribution matters -- 4.1 What causes the gap between skilled and unskilled labor-technology or trade? -- 4.2 Workers in the nontraded sector-the role of migration.

4.3 Is the world flat . . . or just smaller? -- 4.4 Global production and the iPod -- 4.5 Does globalization lead to a race to the bottom on labor standards? -- 4.6 The number of services jobs liable to be moved abroad: large or small? -- 4.7 Trading goods and services or trading tasks? -- 4.8 Key challenges for education systems in the new global economy -- 4.9 Overview of the impact of active labor-market programs -- 5.1 The vanishing polar ice -- 5.2 Can efficiency and renewables be the answer? -- 5.3 Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change.