Cover -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Overview -- The KRG Is Facing a Multifaceted Crisis Compounding Economic and Humanitarian Risks -- To Manage the Impact of These Shocks, KRG Will Need Additional Resources to Restore Access to Public Services -- These Stabilization Assessment Findings and Main Channels of Impacts Are Subsequently Elaborated -- The Refugee and IDP Crises Have Imposed Substantial Strains on the Social Sectors, and Additional Resources Are Needed to Address Humanitarian Issues -- The Crisis Increased the Stress on Infrastructure, Including Water, Solid Waste Management, Electricity, and Transport Sectors: The Stabilization Cost Is Enormous -- Conclusions -- Notes -- Introduction -- Notes -- 1. Macroeconomic and Fiscal Impact of the Conflict -- Precrises Macroeconomic Situation -- Impact of Crises and Stabilization Assessment -- Notes -- 2. Social Development Impact of the Conflict -- Health Sector -- Education Sector -- Food Security and Agricultural Livelihoods -- Poverty and Welfare -- Estimating the Welfare Impact of the Shocks, 2012-15 -- Social Assistance and Labor -- Housing and Shelter -- Social Cohesion and Citizen Security -- Precrisis Situation -- Notes -- 3. Impact of the Conflict on Infrastructure -- Water and Sanitation Sector -- Solid Waste Management -- Electricity Sector -- Transportation Sector -- Notes -- Appendixes -- A. KRG Impact Assessment, 2012-14 -- B. Methodology: KRG Economic and Social Impact Assessment -- C. Simulation Model: Fiscal Impact of the Conflict -- D. Modeling the Macroeconomic Impact of IDPs -- E. Dohuk Governorate: Internally Displaced Persons -- F. Erbil Governorate: Internally Displaced Persons -- G. Sulaymaniyah Governorate: Internally Displaced Persons -- H. Estimates of the Economic Impact of the ISIS Crisis Attributable to Trade.

I. Iraq and KRI Microfinance Sector Assessment -- J. Poverty and Welfare Assessment: Methodology -- K. Annotated Methodology: Health Sector -- Bibliography -- Box -- 1.1 Accounting for the Impact of the Budget Freeze -- Figures -- 1.1 KRI GDP at Current Prices, 2004-11 -- 1.2 KRG Economic Composition of Public Expenditures, 2013 -- 1.3 Number of Local and Foreign Registered Firms: Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, and Dohuk Governorates, 2008-14 -- 1.4 KRI-Licensed Investment Project Capital, 2006-14 -- 1.5 KRI Investment, by Sector, November 2006 through September 7, 2014 -- 1.6 Installed Plants in Industry Sector, July 2014 -- 1.7 Imports from the World and Turkey to KRI, 2009-13 -- 1.8 Public Revenues: Baseline and Counterfactual (No Budget Shock) Scenarios, 2011-15 -- 1.9 Point Impact of IDPs on Monetary Well-Being of KRI Residents, 2014 -- 1.10 Level of Consumer Price Index, January 2010 through September 2014 -- 1.11 Iraq: Trade Flows (Including Oil), January 2014 through July 2014 -- 1.12 Iraq: Monthly Imports from Neighboring Countries, January 2014 through July 2014 -- 1.13 Iraq: Monthly Exports to Neighboring Countries (Including Oil), January 2014 through July 2014 -- 1.14 Customs Revenues, January 2013 through August 2014 -- 1.15 Tourist Arrivals in KRI, 2012-14 -- 2.1 Per Capita Health Expenditures in KRI, 2008-11 -- 2.2 KRG Capital Investment, 2008-11 -- 2.3 Number of Hospital Beds, by Governorate and Public-Private Mix -- 2.4 Recurrent Health Expenditure in KRI, 2007-13 -- 2.5 Impact on PHC Services and Hospital Per Capita Expenditures, 2011-13 -- 2.6 Impact of Budgetary Crisis versus Refugees and IDPs Crises on Per Capita Expenditure, 2013 and 2014 -- 2.7 Foreign Labor Inflow to KRI -- 2.8 Size of the Labor Force, by Private-Public Sector, 2011-13 -- 2.9 Labor Force, by Sector, 2012 and 2013.

2.10 Shelter Trends for IDPs in KRI, June 25, 2014, to September 28, 2014 -- 2.11 CPI Indicators for Rent and General Prices, January 2012 to January 2015 -- 2.12 Estimated Number of Households Requiring Noncamp Housing in 60/40 Scenario -- 2.13 Monthly Civilian Deaths by Violence, January 1, 2009, through September 1, 2013 -- 3.1 Fiscal Cost of Electricity Delivery in KRI, 2010-15 -- C.1 Simulation Model: Impact of the Conflict -- H.1 Import Demand and Export Supply -- I.1 Microfinance Industry Outreach -- I.2 ISIS Conflict and Associated Instability Impact on Lending Activity in Iraq's Microfinance Sector, 2010-14 -- I.3 Substantial Increase Observed in PAR over 30 Days among Iraqi and KRI MFIs, 2010-14 -- Maps -- 1.1 Diversion of Trade Routes -- E.1 Dohuk Governorate: Internally Displaced Persons -- F.1 Erbil Governorate: Internally Displaced Persons -- G.1 Sulaymaniyah Governorate: Internally Displaced Persons -- Photos -- O.1 Children in Arbat Camp in Sulaymaniyah Governorate -- 1.1 Child in Arbat Camp in Sulaymaniyah Governorate -- 2.1 Darashakran Refugee Camp in Erbil Governorate -- 3.1 Gawilan Refugee Camp in Dohuk Governorate -- 3.2 Kawergosk Refugee Camp in Erbil Governorate -- Tables -- 0.1 Stabilization Assessment, 2015 Projection -- 1.1 Revenue and Expenditures, 2010-14 -- 1.2 Comparative Indexes, KRI versus Iraq -- 2.1 Impact Assessment for the Health Sector, October 2012 to September 2014 -- 2.2 Stabilization Assessment for the Health Sector, 2015 -- 2.3 Stabilization Assessment, by Scenario, 2015 -- 2.4 KRI Basic Education: Statistics on Students, Schools, and Teachers, 2008 and 2013 -- 2.5 Dohuk: Number of Refugee Shelters in Schools as of September 1, 2014 -- 2.6 KRG Education Sector Expenditures, Actual Spending 2008-12 -- 2.7 Education Sector Stabilization Assessment, 2015 Projection.

2.8 Stabilization Assessment for Food Security and Agricultural Livelihoods, 2015 -- 2.9 Distribution of Population, by Gender and Age Ranges, 2014 -- 2.10 Population Projections for 2014, Different Scenarios -- 2.11 Population Projections, Baseline Scenario, 2015 -- 2.12 Population Projections, Lower Scenario, 2015 -- 2.13 Population Projections, Upper Scenario, 2015 -- 2.14 KRI GRP Growth, by Sector, Estimates -- 2.15 KRI Employment-Output Elasticities (Estimates), Population between 18 and 60 Years -- 2.16 Elasticity of Poverty to Economic Growth, 2013-15 -- 2.17 Aggregate Impacts on Poverty, Assuming No Growth in Public Transfers, 2012-15 -- 2.18 Stabilization Costs, Assuming No Growth in Public Transfers, 2015 -- 2.19 Family and Disability Allowances, by Governorates, 2010-14 -- 2.20 Employment and Unemployment Rates, 2012 and 2013 -- 2.21 Fiscal Impact, 2015 -- 2.22 Stabilization Assessment, 2015 -- 3.1 Estimated Impact on Water Demand, 2012-14 -- 3.2 Estimated Needs of Refugees and IDPs, 2015 Projection -- 3.3 Stabilization Assessment for Solid Waste Management, 2015 Projection -- 3.4 Stabilization Assessment for the Electricity Sector, 2015 Projection -- 3.5 Distribution of Road Network in KRG Governorates -- 3.6 Construction and Maintenance Expenditures in the Road Sector Excluding Municipal Road Network, 2010-13 -- 3.7 Construction and Maintenance Expenditures in the Road Sector, Municipal Road Network, 2010-13 -- A.1 KRG Impact Assessment, 2012-14 -- I.1 Microfinance Providers as of 2012 -- K.1 Actual Expenditure Variables -- K.2 Counterfactual Per Capita Expenditure Variables -- K.3 Population Variables -- K.4 Impact Assessment -- K.5 Stabilization Assessment.