Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: The Representation and Treatment of Uncertainties by Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Methods -- Contents -- Preface -- Part I: Introduction -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 Risk -- 1.1.1 The concept of risk -- 1.1.2 Describing/measuring risk -- 1.1.3 Examples -- 1.2 Probabilistic risk assessment -- 1.3 Use of risk assessment: The risk management and decision-making context -- 1.4 Treatment of uncertainties in risk assessments -- 1.5 Challenges: Discussion -- 1.5.1 Examples -- 1.5.2 Alternatives to the probability-based approaches to risk and uncertainty assessment -- 1.5.3 The way ahead -- References - Part I -- Part II: Methods -- 2 Probabilistic approaches for treating uncertainty -- 2.1 Classical probabilities -- 2.2 Frequentist probabilities -- 2.3 Subjective probabilities -- 2.3.1 Betting interpretation -- 2.3.2 Reference to a standard for uncertainty -- 2.4 The Bayesian subjective probability framework -- 2.5 Logical probabilities -- 3 Imprecise probabilities for treating uncertainty -- 4 Possibility theory for treating uncertainty -- 4.1 Basics of possibility theory -- 4.2 Approaches for constructing possibility distributions -- 4.2.1 Building possibility distributions from nested probability intervals -- 4.2.2 Justification for using the triangular possibility distribution -- 4.2.3 Building possibility distributions using Chebyshev's inequality -- 5 Evidence theory for treating uncertainty -- 6 Methods of uncertainty propagation -- 6.1 Level 1 uncertainty propagation setting -- 6.1.1 Level 1 purely probabilistic framework -- 6.1.2 Level 1 purely possibilistic framework -- 6.1.3 Level 1 hybrid probabilistic-possibilistic framework -- 6.2 Level 2 uncertainty propagation setting -- 6.2.1 Level 2 purely probabilistic framework -- 6.2.2 Level 2 hybrid probabilistic-evidence theory framework -- 7 Discussion.

7.1 Probabilistic analysis -- 7.2 Lower and upper probabilities -- 7.3 Non-probabilistic representations with interpretations other than lower and upper probabilities -- 7.4 Hybrid representations of uncertainty -- 7.5 Semi-quantitative approaches -- References - Part II -- Part III: Practical Applications -- 8 Uncertainty representation and propagation in structural reliability analysis -- 8.1 Structural reliability analysis -- 8.1.1 A model of crack propagation under cyclic fatigue -- 8.2 Case study -- 8.3 Uncertainty representation -- 8.4 Uncertainty propagation -- 8.5 Results -- 8.6 Comparison to a purely probabilistic method -- 9 Uncertainty representation and propagation in maintenance performance assessment -- 9.1 Maintenance performance assessment -- 9.2 Case study -- 9.3 Uncertainty representation -- 9.4 Uncertainty propagation -- 9.4.1 Maintenance performance assessment in the case of no epistemic uncertainty on the parameters -- 9.4.2 Application of the hybrid probabilistic-theory of evidence uncertainty propagation method -- 9.5 Results -- 10 Uncertainty representation and propagation in event tree analysis -- 10.1 Event tree analysis -- 10.2 Case study -- 10.3 Uncertainty representation -- 10.4 Uncertainty propagation -- 10.5 Results -- 10.6 Comparison of the results to those obtained by using other uncertainty representation and propagation methods -- 10.6.1 Purely probabilistic representation and propagation of the uncertainty -- 10.6.2 Purely possibilistic representation and propagation of the uncertainty -- 10.7 Result comparison -- 10.7.1 Comparison of results -- 10.7.2 Comparison of the results for the probability of occurrence of a severe consequence accident -- 11 Uncertainty representation and propagation in the evaluation of the consequences of industrial activity -- 11.1 Evaluation of the consequences of undesirable events.

11.2 Case study -- 11.3 Uncertainty representation -- 11.4 Uncertainty propagation -- 11.5 Results -- 11.6 Comparison of the results to those obtained using a purely probabilistic approach -- 12 Uncertainty representation and propagation in the risk assessment of a process plant -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Case description -- 12.3 The "textbook" Bayesian approach (level 2 analysis) -- 12.4 An alternative approach based on subjective probabilities (level 1 analysis) -- References - Part III -- Part IV: Conclusions -- 13 Conclusions -- References - Part IV -- Appendix A: Operative procedures for the methods of uncertainty propagation -- A.1 Level 1 hybrid probabilistic-possibilistic framework -- A.2 Level 2 purely probabilistic framework -- Appendix B: Possibility-probability transformation -- Reference -- Index.