COVER -- PREFACE -- CONTENTS -- TABLES -- SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- Chapter One - INTRODUCTION: Nora Bensahel and Daniel L. Byman -- U.S. INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST -- Countering Terrorism -- Countering WMD Proliferation -- Maintaining Stable Oil Supplies and Prices -- Ensuring the Stability of Friendly Regimes -- Ensuring Israel's Security -- Promoting Democracy and Human Rights -- POTENTIAL THREATS TO U.S. INTERESTS -- A CHANGING REGION -- THE SHADOWS OF SEPTEMBER 11 AND THE WAR AGAINST IRAQ -- REPORT OBJECTIVES AND STRUCTURE -- Chapter Two - POLITICAL REFORM IN THE MIDDLE EAST: Nora Bensahel -- U.S. INTERESTS IN MIDDLE EASTERN POLITICAL REFORM -- PRESSURES FOR POLITICAL REFORM IN THE MIDDLE EAST -- Economic Challenges -- Demographic Trends -- Accountability and Corruption -- Possible Regime Responses -- REGIONAL TRENDS -- Democratization: Legislatures -- Democratization: Consultative Councils -- Liberalization: Political Parties -- Liberalization: Civic Organizations -- Liberalization: Freedom of the Press -- Liberalization: The Judiciary and the Rule of Law -- SURVEY OF KEY STATES -- Egypt -- Iran -- Jordan -- Kuwait -- Saudi Arabia -- IMPACT ON U.S. SECURITY INTERESTS -- Effect on Regional Stability -- Sensitivity to U.S. Ties -- CONCLUSION -- Chapter Three - ECONOMIC REFORM IN THE MIDDLE EAST: THE CHALLENGE TO GOVERNANCE: Alan Richards -- THE KEY ECONOMIC CHALLENGES FACING THE REGION -- Restoring Economic Growth -- Restraining Population Expansion -- Providing Jobs -- Alleviating Poverty -- The Jungle of Cities -- Saving Water -- Obtaining Food -- Attracting Money for Investment -- EGYPT -- The Background of Reform -- The Promise of Reform -- The Performance -- The Political Economy of "Creeping Cronyism" -- JORDAN -- Economic Reform in Jordan -- Crafting Credible Reforms -- IRAN -- SAUDI ARABIA.

The Development of a State-Centered Political Economy -- Pressures for Reform -- Further Obstacles to the Reform Process -- SYRIA -- Riding the Roller Coaster of Rents -- The Limits of Reform -- IMPLICATIONS -- Relatively Advanced Countries -- Low-Income Countries -- Oil-Rich Countries -- CONCLUSION -- Chapter Four - CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST: Risa Brooks -- FROM COUPS TO STABILITY -- THE INGREDIENTS OF POLITICAL CONTROL -- Social Support -- Stacking the Deck -- Servicing the Military Constituency -- Internal Security Agencies -- Dual Militaries -- Size -- Institutional Tactics -- Leader Incentives -- POLITICAL CONTROL AND MILITARY EFFECTIVENESS -- Command and Control -- Leadership -- Intelligence and Information -- POTENTIAL OFFSETS TO POLITICIZATION -- Centralized Command Structures -- Technology -- Specialization and the Internal/External Division of Labor -- International Factors -- The Unconventional Alternative -- POTENTIAL CHALLENGES TO CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS -- IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES -- Chapter Five - THE IMPLICATIONS OF LEADERSHIP CHANGE IN THE ARAB WORLD: Daniel L. Byman -- PARAMETERS OF REGIME CHANGE -- Categories of Regime Change -- LEADERSHIP CHANGE IN SAUDI ARABIA -- Change Within the Al Saud -- Constants in Saudi Society -- Saudi Islamists -- Geopolitical Constants -- Implications -- LEADERSHIP CHANGE IN SYRIA -- Bashar Versus Hafez -- A Shift from Bashar to Other Domestic Actors -- Geopolitical Constants -- Implications -- LEADERSHIP CHANGE IN EGYPT -- Change Within the Egyptian Elite -- Geopolitical and Societal Constants -- The Islamist Alternative -- Implications -- PREPARING FOR REGIME CHANGE -- Potential Risks and Opportunities -- Recommendations -- Chapter Six - ENERGY AND MIDDLE EASTERN SECURITY: NEW DIMENSIONS AND STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS: Ian O. Lesser.

WORLD ENERGY TRENDS AND THE ENERGY SECURITY DEBATE -- The Outlook for Oil Supply and Price -- The Aftermath of September 11 and the War in Iraq -- Changing Patterns of Dependence -- EMERGING ISSUES -- The Rise of Gas -- New Lines of Communication for Oil -- "Rogue" (or Isolated) States, Sanctions, and Energy Supply -- Arms and Oil -- Energy Prices, Regime Stability, and Military Potential -- Energy Denial as an Asymmetric Strategy -- Transatlantic and Asian Perspectives -- CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS -- Chapter Seven - THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION AND THE MIDDLE EAST: Jon B. Alterman -- A RICHER INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT -- Newspapers -- Television -- A Wide Spectrum of Content -- The Internet -- The Rise of Mid-Technology -- Greater Information Diversity and Access -- LIMITED ASSIMILATION OF HIGH-TECHNOLOGY -- IMPLICATIONS -- New Mass Politics -- Challenges for Regional Governments -- Implications for the United States -- Chapter Eight - WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST: PROLIFERATION DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC CONSEQUENCES: Ian O. Lesser -- ASSESSING RECENT TRENDS -- Algeria -- Libya -- Egypt -- Israel -- Syria -- Iran -- Saudi Arabia -- Transforming Developments and Synergies -- PROLIFERATION MOTIVES AND INTERNAL DYNAMICS -- The Search for Weight and Prestige -- Countering Western Superiority -- Indigenous Development and International Trade -- Institutional and Domestic Factors -- REGIONAL DYNAMICS -- Geography Matters -- North-South Frictions and Regional Balances -- The Arab-Israeli Conflict -- Gulf Security -- North Africa -- EXTRAREGIONAL DYNAMICS -- The Russian Factor -- China and North Korea -- India, Pakistan, and Proliferation Alliances -- Implications for European Security -- A WORLD OF DEFENSES: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDDLE EAST -- CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS.

Chapter Nine - CONCLUSIONS: Nora Bensahel, Daniel L. Byman, and Negeen Pegahi -- TENSIONS AFFECTING U.S. FOREIGN POLICY -- Stability Versus Political Reform -- Regimes Versus Populations -- EMERGING CHALLENGES -- Political Challenges -- Military Challenges -- KEY UNCERTAINTIES -- The Price of Oil -- The Future of Iraq -- The Arab-Israeli Conflict -- The Policies of Russia and China -- The Nature of Regime Change -- FINAL WORDS -- BIBLIOGRAPHY.