Research on Sentencing -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- 1-Making Sense of Sentencing-A Review and Critique of Sentencing Research -- TWO INCIPIENT THEORIES OF SENTENCING -- DEFINITIONAL PROBLEMS IN SENTENCING RESEARCH -- METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS IN SENTENCING RESEARCH -- Alternative Measures of Sentence Severity -- Sampling Problems -- Measurement of Legitimized Influences on Criminal Sentencing -- Measurement of Nonlegitimized Influences on Sentencing -- Measurement of Contextual Effects -- THE PROBLEM OF CUMULATION -- RACE AND SENTENCING -- Clarke and Koch (1977) -- Gibson (1978) -- Hagan and Bernstein (1979) -- Kelly (1976) -- LaFree (1980) -- Lizotte (1978) -- Myers (1979) -- Pope (1975) -- Thomson and Zingraff (1981) -- Unnever, Frazier, and Henretta (1980) -- DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- 2-Discrimination in the Criminal Justice System-A Critical Appraisal of the Literature -- INTRODUCTION -- (1) The Absence of Formal Models of Processing Decisions in the Criminal Justice System -- (2) Sample Selection Biases Resulting from Screening and Processing Decisions -- (3) Use of Arbitrary Scales to Measure Qualitatively Different Dispositions -- ORGANIZATION OF THE PAPER -- THE ANALYSIS OF BINARY VARIABLES -- SELECTION -- Selection Bias -- Selection Bias at Different Processing Stages of the Criminal Justice System -- Procedures to Deal with Selection Bias -- A MODEL OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM -- Background Discussion of the Model -- Trial and Sentencing -- Plea Bargaining -- The Decision to Charge -- The Model of the Decision to Prosecute, Plea Bargaining, and Conviction and Sentencing -- REVIEW OF SELECTED STUDIES -- Sample Selection Bias -- Mixing Guilty Pleas and Trial Convictions -- Mixing Outcomes -- GENERALIZED MODELS OF SENTENCING -- Two Models of Sentencing Decisions -- Latent Variable Model of Sentencing.

An Alternative Model of the Sentencing Decision -- Modeling Indeterminate Sentences -- EXPERIMENTS IN SENTENCING RESEARCH -- CONCLUSIONS -- Appendix -- NOTES -- REFERENCES -- 3-The Role of Extralegal Factors in Determining Criminal Case Disposition -- INTRODUCTION -- EMPIRICAL STUDIES OF DISCRIMINATION IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM -- Case Disposition and Sentencing Studies -- (1) Seriousness of the Offense -- (2) Prior Record -- (3) Type of Legal Representation -- (4) Release on Bail -- (5) Type of Conviction -- (6) Miscellaneous Factors -- (7) Discriminatory or Extralegal Factors -- The Conviction Process -- The Plea Decision -- Release on Bail -- Setting of Bail -- Choice of Legal Representation -- The Charge Decision -- The Decision to Prosecute -- Summary of the Major Findings -- BIASES INDUCED BY MEASUREMENT ERROR AND OMITTED VARIABLES -- The Statistical Consequences of Failing to Control Adequately for the Primary Determinants -- Correlations Between the Primary Determinants and Extralegal Variables -- Alternative Interpretations of Results Reported in the Literature -- Future Research Directions -- AN ILLUSTRATIVE STRUCTURAL MODEL OF CRIMINAL CASE DISPOSITIONS -- ESTIMABILITY OF THE PARAMETERS OF THE ILLUSTRATIVE STRUCTURAL MODEL -- HOW THE ILLUSTRATIVE STRUCTURAL MODEL ALLOWS DISENTANGLING THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF RACE-OUTCOME CORRELATIONS: A HEURISTIC… -- IDENTIFICATION IN LATENT VARIABLE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION -- ADDITIONAL SPECIFICATION ISSUES -- CONCLUDING REMARKS -- NOTES -- REFERENCES -- 4-Empirically Based Sentencing Guidelines and Ethical Considerations -- INTRODUCTION -- THE SIMPLEST CASE: NO ETHICALLY IRRELEVANT VARIABLES -- THE PRESENCE OF A SINGLE ETHICALLY IRRELEVANT VARIABLE: THE LINEAR CASE -- NONLINEARITIES AND MORE THAN ONE ETHICALLY IRRELEVANT VARIABLE -- CONCLUSION -- NOTES.

5-The Construction of Sentencing Guidelines-A Methodological Critique -- INTRODUCTION -- THE CONCEPT OF DECISION-MAKING GUIDELINES -- (1) Ranges Rather than Points -- (2) Nonmandatory Ranges -- THE DESCRIPTION OF PAST SENTENCING PRACTICE -- PROBLEMS OF MODEL DEVELOPMENT -- Step (1) -- Step (2) -- Step (3) -- How Many Models? -- What Variables Should Be Included? -- FROM MODELS TO GUIDELINES -- The Decision to Incarcerate -- Widths of Prescribed "Normal" Ranges -- ASSESSING THE STRUCTURE AND IMPACT OF GUIDELINES -- CONCLUSIONS -- NOTES -- REFERENCES -- 6-The Politics of Sentencing Reform-Sentencing Guidelines in Pennsylvania and Minnesota -- DISPARITY, SEVERITY, AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF AUTHORITY: CENTRAL ISSUES IN SENTENCING REFORM -- LEGISLATIVE POLITICS AND SENTENCING REFORM -- Minnesota -- Pennsylvania -- THE STATUTES AND THE MANDATES OF THE COMMISSIONS -- INTERPRETING THE MANDATES AND CREATING GUIDELINES -- Membership, Leadership, and Staff -- The Guidelines: Construction Process and Their Content -- Key Elements in Designing the Guidelines -- Minnesota -- Pennsylvania -- THE POLITICS OF GUIDELINE DEVELOPMENT: THE ROLE OF INTEREST GROUPS -- CONCLUSION -- NOTES -- REFERENCES -- 7-Sentencing Reforms and Their Impacts -- INTRODUCTION -- Impacts Considered -- Innovations Considered -- ABOLITION OF PLEA BARGAINING -- Plea Bargaining Ban in Alaska -- Prosecutorial Involvement in Sentence Bargaining -- Charge Bargaining and Other Circumvention -- Consequences of the Ban on Case Processing -- Screening -- Dismissals of Cases -- Method of Disposition -- Sanctions Policies -- Disposition Time -- Conclusion -- Participants' Reactions -- Was the Ban a Good Thing? -- Implications of the Alaska Experience -- The "Hampton" County Charge Bargaining Ban -- Screening -- Dismissals -- Sanctions -- Practitioners' Reactions -- Conclusion -- Michigan -- Dispositions.

Adaptive Responses -- MANDATORY SENTENCING LAWS -- Michigan -- Arrest and Case Screening -- Dismissal and Conviction Rates -- Sanctioning Rates -- Trial Rates -- Massachusetts -- Arrests and Prosecutorial Screening -- Dismissal and Conviction -- Sanctions and Delay -- New York -- Dismissal -- Incarceration Rates -- Severity of Prison Sentences -- Trial Rates -- Delays in Court -- Conclusion -- DETERMINATE SENTENCING IN CALIFORNIA -- Description of the California Uniform Determinate Sentencing Law -- Formal Compliance With DSL -- Selection of Base Terms -- Enhancements -- Probation Ineligibility -- Charging -- Plea Bargaining After DSL -- Patterns and Trends in Plea Bargaining -- Guilty Plea Rates -- Timing of Guilty Pleas -- Variations in Plea Bargaining Practices -- Impact on Prison Use -- Trends in Prison Use -- Factors Contributing to Increased Prison Use -- Changes in Probation Subsidies -- Changes in Case Filtering -- Demographic Changes -- Increases in Punitiveness -- Impact on Length of Terms -- Length of Prison Terms -- Variability in Prison Terms -- Implications for the Size of the Prison Population -- Conclusions -- SENTENCING GUIDELINES -- Guideline Types -- Formal Compliance -- Voluntary/Descriptive Guidelines -- Presumptive/Prescriptive Guidelines -- Variability in Sentences -- Case Processing -- Prison Use -- Conclusion -- PAROLE REFORMS -- Parole Abolition -- Parole Guidelines -- Severity -- Accuracy -- Variability -- Disparity Reduction -- CONCLUSION -- Substantive Findings -- Procedural Compliance -- Adaptive Responses -- Marginal Cases -- Methodological Concerns -- The Necessity for Extended Observation Periods -- The Necessity for Outcome Measures at All Levels of Case Processing -- The Necessity for Adequate Controls for Changes in Case Attributes -- The Necessity for Qualitative Analysis of System Functioning -- NOTES.

REFERENCES -- 8-The Impact of Changes in Sentencing Policy on Prison Populations -- THE NEED FOR ESTIMATES -- PROJECTION OF FUTURE PRISON POPULATIONS AS A BASELINE FOR THE IMPACT ESTIMATE -- Naive Projection-Current Situation as a Baseline -- Extrapolation of the Time Series of Prison Populations -- Multivariate Regression -- Projections Based on Demographic-Specific Incarceration Rates -- Disaggregated Flow Models -- Microsimulation Models -- IMPACT ESTIMATION -- Identification of Population Subsets -- Establishment of Values of Policy Variables -- Behavioral Response to the New Policy -- Calculation of the Effects of the Sentencing Policy Change -- Estimation of the Impact of a Mandatory Minimum Sentencing Bill -- SUMMARY AND FURTHER RESEARCH NEEDS -- NOTES -- REFERENCES.