PREFACE -- FIGURES -- TABLES -- SUMMARY -- EFFECT PER PROGRAM PARTICIPANT -- Proportion of Persons Who Would Have Ever Used Cocaine -- Lifetime Cocaine Consumption Per User (grams) -- Percentage Reduction in Cocaine Use Due to Prevention Program -- Discount Factor -- Social Multiplier -- Market Multiplier -- Causation/Correlation Ratio -- Scale-Up Factor -- Overall Effectiveness (grams per participant) -- COST-EFFECTIVENESS -- Program Cost (dollars per participant) -- Cost-Effectiveness (kilograms of cocaine consumption averted per million dollars spent) -- AGGREGATE EFFECTS AND OTHER BENEFITS -- CONCLUSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- INTRODUCTION -- AN ANALYSIS OF COSTS AND EFFECTIVENESS -- BEYOND COST-EFFECTIVENESS -- AN ISSUE NOT YET EXAMINED -- OUR FOCUS -- EFFECTIVENESS AT REDUCING COCAINE CONSUMPTION -- EFFECT ON COHORT MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN PROGRAM -- Proportion of Cohort That Would Otherwise Use Cocaine -- Lifetime Consumption -- Program Effect -- Discount Factor -- Summary -- MULTIPLIERS -- Social Multiplier -- Market Multiplier -- QUALIFIERS -- INTEGRATING THE FACTORS -- Uncertainty -- Sources of Effect -- COST-EFFECTIVENESS AT REDUCING COCAINE CONSUMPTION -- DEFINING PROGRAM COST -- ESTIMATING PROGRAM COST -- ESTIMATING COST-EFFECTIVENESS AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF UNCERTAINTY -- VARIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF TIME -- OTHER BENEFITS -- ESTIMATING THE EFFECT ON USE OF DRUGS OTHER THAN COCAINE -- Simple Program Effectiveness -- Other Factors -- Comparison of Effects -- SOCIAL SAVINGS FROM REDUCED DRUG USE -- Cocaine -- Other Drugs -- BENEFITS UNRELATED TO REDUCED DRUG CONSUMPTION -- NATIONWIDE IMPLEMENTATION -- IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CURRENT COCAINE EPIDEMIC -- IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE EPIDEMICS -- IMPLICATIONS FOR THE LEGALIZATION DEBATE -- CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS -- MODEL PREVENTION PROGRAMS APPEAR TO BE COMPETITIVE WITH ENFORCEMENT.

GREAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT PREVENTION'S COST- EFFECTIVENESS -- THE SOURCE OF BENEFITS IS NOT WHAT MIGHT BE EXPECTED -- DRUG USE PREVENTION HAS BENEFITS OTHER THAN REDUCED COCAINE USE -- A NATIONAL PROGRAM IS AFFORDABLE BUT WILL NOT END THE COCAINE EPIDEMIC -- DRUG PREVENTION SHOULD BE CONDUCTED BEFORE IT IS PERCEIVED NECESSARY -- PREVENTION CANNOT SUBSTITUTE FOR ENFORCEMENT IN A LEGALIZATION REGIME -- THE BOTTOM LINE -- ESTIMATING AVERAGE LIFETIME COCAINE CONSUMPTION -- HISTORICAL CONSUMPTION DIVIDED BY NUMBER OF USERS -- CONSUMPTION PROJECTED THROUGH A MODEL OVER AN INFINITE HORIZON -- CONSUMPTION PROJECTED THROUGH A MODEL OVER A FINITE HORIZON -- ADJUSTING THE HISTORICAL APPROACH FOR YEARS OF USE -- STEADY-STATE ESTIMATE -- SUMMARY -- PREVENTION'S EFFECTIVENESS AT REDUCING MARIJUANA INITIATION -- RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGE OF MARIJUANA INITIATION AND LIFETIME CONSUMPTION OF COCAINE AND MARIJUANA -- ESTIMATING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SOCIAL MULTIPLIER -- COMPUTING THE SOCIAL MULTIPLIER FOR A GIVEN INITIATION FUNCTION -- CAVEATS TO THE INTERPRETATION OF THE SOCIAL MULTIPLIER -- INTRODUCTION TO MODELING ENDOGENOUS INITIATION -- FITTING WITH EXOGENOUS DATA ON NUMBERS OF USERS Functional Forms Evaluated -- Sets of Initiation Data to Which Models Were Fit -- Conclusions Concerning the Endogenous Initiation Function -- Conclusions from the Resulting Social-Multiplier Calculations -- FITTING WITH ENDOGENOUSLY DETERMINED DATA ON THE NUMBERS OF USERS -- CONCLUSION -- HOW PREVENTION'S COST-EFFECTIVENESS VARIES OVER TIME -- QUANTITY OF COCAINE CONSUMED OVER A USER'S LIFETIME -- BASELINE RATE OF COCAINE INITIATION -- DIRECT EFFECTS OF PREVENTION PROGRAMS ON COCAINE CONSUMPTION -- DISCOUNT FACTOR -- SOCIAL MULTIPLIER -- MARKET MULTIPLIER -- ADJUSTMENT FOR SPURIOUS CORRELATIONS -- SCALE-UP ADJUSTMENT -- SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS.

ESTIMATING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARKET MULTIPLIER -- ESTIMATING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CAUSATION/ CORRELATION QUALIFIER -- METHOD Measures of Lifetime Use -- Which Observations to Include -- Control Variables Analyzed -- Definition and Calculation of Stripe-Changing Attenuation Factor -- Categorization of Possible Effects of Control Variables -- RESULTS -- ESTIMATING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SCALE-UP DEGRADATION QUALIFIER -- PREVENTION'S EFFECT ON HEAVY ALCOHOL USE AND CIGARETTE SMOKING -- ESTIMATING REDUCTION IN HEAVY ALCOHOL USE -- ESTIMATING REDUCTION IN CIGARETTE SMOKING -- CHOOSING DISCOUNT FACTORS -- SETTING THE OTHER FACTORS -- RESULTS IN COMPARISON WITH MARIJUANA AND COCAINE FINDINGS -- ACCUMULATION OF PREVENTION'S EFFECT NATIONWIDE -- REFERENCES.