Contents -- Introduction -- PART I: EXPERTS AND OPINIONS -- 1. Think Tanks and Oracles -- Background -- The RAND Corporation -- Herman Kahn -- Scenario analysis -- The Delphi method -- Conclusions: Toward a methodology for expert opinion -- 2. Expert Opinion in Practice -- The Aerospace sector -- Military intelligence -- Probabilistic risk analysis -- Policy analysis -- 3. Probabilistic Thinking -- Thinking -- Representing uncertainty in artificial intelligence -- Fuzziness -- Conclusion -- 4. Heuristics and Biases -- Availability -- Anchoring -- Representativeness -- Control -- The base rate fallacy -- Overconfidence and calibration -- Conclusion -- 5. Building rational consensus -- Rational consensus -- Principles -- Conclusion -- PART II: SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY -- 6. Savage's Normative Decision Theory -- The decision model -- The representation theorem -- Observation -- Supplement -- 7. Relative Frequencies and Exchangeability -- The frequentist account of learning by experience -- Expected frequency -- Exchangeability -- De Finetti's finite representation theorem -- Supplement -- 8. Elicitation and Scoring -- Elicitation -- Scoring -- Methodological problems -- Practical guidelines -- 9. Scoring Rules for Evaluating and Weighing Assessments -- Improper scoring rules -- Scoring rules for individual variables -- Proper scoring rules for average probabilities -- Asymptotic properties -- A menu of weights -- Heuristics of weighing -- Supplement -- 10. Two Experiments with Calibration and Entropy -- Calibration and knowledge -- brief review of the literature -- The mechanical engineer experiment -- The managers experiment -- Conclusion -- PART III: COMBINING EXPERT OPINIONS -- 11. Combining Expert Opinions -- Review of the Literature -- Weighted combinations of probabilities -- Bayesian combinations -- Psychological scaling -- Conclusion.

12. The Classical Model -- Notation and definitions -- Basic model -- uncertain events -- Basic model -- continuous variables -- Variations and enhancements -- Issues -- Measuring and optimizing performance -- virtual weights -- Correlation -- Conclusions -- 13. The Bayesian Model -- Basic theory -- Notations and definitions -- The Mendel-Sheridan model -- assumptions -- Evaluation of model performance via bilinear loss functions -- A partially exchangeable Bayesian model -- Conclusions -- 14. Psychological Scaling Models: Paired Comparisons -- Generic issues -- Significant preference for one expert -- Significant preference for the set of experts -- The Thurstone model -- The Bradley-Terry model -- The negative exponential lifetime model -- Relation to principles for expert opinion in science -- 15. Applications -- Applications of the classical model -- The Royal Dutch Meteorological study -- Bayesian analysis -- Flange connections at a process plant-paired comparisons -- Flange connections at a process plant-the classical model -- Supplement -- 16. Conclusions -- Part I -- Part II -- Part III -- Appendix A. Mathematical Framework and Interpretation -- Mathematical framework -- Interpretation -- Conditional probability, independence, Bayes' theorem -- Expectation, moments, moment convergence -- Distributions -- Entropy, information, relative information -- Appendix B. Standard normal, inverse normal, Chi square, coefficient of agreement, coefficient of concordance -- References -- Author Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- J -- K -- L -- M -- O -- P -- R -- S -- T -- V -- W -- Z -- Subject Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- H -- I -- J -- K -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- Q -- R -- S -- T -- U -- V -- W -- Z.