Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- About the Author -- Introduction -- Chapter 1 The Economic Machine: Why Being Balanced Is So Important Today -- How the Economy Functions -- The Short-Term Business Cycle -- The Long-Term Debt Cycle -- The Deleveraging Process -- Printing Money -- The Importance of Balance Always, but Particularly Today -- Summary -- Chapter 2 Your Portfolio Is Not Well Balanced -- What is Good Balance? -- The Conventional Portfolio is not Balanced -- Why is it not Balanced? -- The Flaw in Conventional Thinking -- A New Lens -- Summary -- Chapter 3 The Fundamental Drivers of Asset Class Returns -- Breaking Down Returns Into Cash Plus Excess Return -- The Return of Cash -- Excess Returns Above Cash -- Shifts in the Economic Environment (a Risk You Can Diversify Against) -- Bonds: Why Shifts in the Economic Environment Impact Returns -- Stocks: Why Shifts in the Economic Environment Impact Returns -- All Asset Classes: Why Shifts in the Economic Environment Impact Returns -- Shifts in Risk Appetite (Not a Diversifiable Risk) -- Shifts in Expectations of Future Cash Rates (Not a Diversifiable Risk) -- Putting it all Together -- Summary -- Chapter 4 Viewing Stocks through a Balanced Portfolio Lens -- Introduction -- The Conventional View: Why Investors own a lot of Stocks -- Oversight #1: The Risk of Long-Term Underperformance in Stocks -- Oversight #2: Equities Are Just Prepackaged to Offer Higher Returns -- Oversight #3: The Conventional Approach Results in Imbalanced Portfolios -- The Balanced Portfolio View: How to Think About Equities -- Economic Bias: Rising Growth Bias of Stocks -- Economic Bias: Falling Inflation Benefit to Equities -- Combining the Two Economic Biases of Equities -- The Importance of Volatility -- The Role of Equities in a Truly Balanced Portfolio -- Summary.

Chapter 5 The High Value of Low-Yielding Treasuries within the Balanced Portfolio Framework -- Introduction -- The Conventional Perspective -- Major Flaw #1: Interest Rates Have to Rise More than People Expect for Treasuries to Underperform Cash -- Major Flaw #2: Long-Term Treasuries Can Deliver Sizable Gains over Shorter Periods -- Major Flaw #3: Cutting Treasury Exposure Reduces Balance and Makes Portfolios More Risky -- Considering Treasuries Through a Balanced Portfolio Perspective -- Economic Bias: Treasuries Favor Falling Growth -- Economic Bias: Falling Inflation Benefit to Treasuries -- Important Distinction: Deflation versus Falling Inflation -- Putting It Together: Falling Growth and Falling Inflation (and Deflation) Economic Bias -- The Benefits of Higher-Volatility Treasuries -- The Role of Treasuries in the Balanced Portfolio -- Summary -- Chapter 6 Why TIPS Are Critical to Maintaining Balance (Despite Their Low Yield) -- What are Tips and how do They Work? -- The Conventional View That the Yield of Tips is too Low and why it's Flawed -- Tips Viewed through a Balanced Perspective -- Economic Bias: Rising Inflation -- Economic Bias: Falling Growth -- Putting It Together: Rising Inflation and Falling Growth -- TIPS Volatility -- The Crucial Role of tips in the Balanced Portfolio -- Summary -- Chapter 7 Owning Commodities in a Balanced Portfolio -- What are Commodities Investments? -- The Conventional view of Commodities -- Major Flaw #1: Low Returns and High Volatility-Why Would I Ever Invest in Commodities? -- Major Flaw #2: Two Structural Issues-They Pay No Income and Futures Prices Can Diverge from Spot Prices -- Considering Commodities Through a Balanced Portfolio Perspective -- Economic Bias: Rising Inflation -- Economic Bias: Rising Growth -- Putting It Together: Rising Inflation and Rising Growth.

The Advantage of the High Volatility of Commodities -- The Role of Commodities in a Balanced Portfolio -- Summary -- Chapter 8 Even More Balance: Introduction to Other Asset Classes -- How to Deconstruct Other Asset Classes Using the Balanced Framework -- Additional Asset Classes -- Global Stocks and Bonds -- Equity Subsets -- Corporate Bonds -- Emerging Market Bonds -- Municipal Bonds -- Commercial Real Estate -- Private Equity -- Hedge Funds -- Summary -- Chapter 9 How to Build a Balanced Portfolio: Conceptual Framework -- Introduction: Two Simple Questions -- Question One: Which Asset Classes? -- Question Two: How do I weight the Asset Classes? -- The Impact of Volatility -- Putting It Together -- Summary -- Chapter 10 How to Build a Balanced Portfolio: The Step-by-Step Process -- The Logical Sequence Behind Efficiently Weighting Asset Classes -- The Ideal Portfolio for Each Economic Climate -- Combining Four Economic Portfolios into One -- Two Steps to Balancing the Portfolio -- Not Exactly Risk-Parity -- Analyzing 60/40 Through the Same Lens -- Summary -- Chapter 11 The Balanced Portfolio: Historical Returns -- The Balanced Portfolio has Achieved Steady Long-Term Returns -- Solid Trailing Returns: The Tortoise and the Hare -- Stable Growth over the Long Run -- Low Volatility -- Consistent Returns Year by Year -- The Balanced Portfolio has not Underperformed for Extended Periods -- The Balanced Portfolio has had Limited Major Drawdowns -- Why Unexpected Rising Cash Rates and Falling Risk Appetite Can Cause Short-Term Underperformance -- Major Drawdowns Have Infrequently Occurred -- Drawdowns Have Not Been Severe or Long Lasting -- Summary -- Chapter 12 Implementation Strategies: Putting Theory into Practice -- The Balanced Portfolio as the Efficient Starting Point -- Implementing the Balanced Portfolio.

Trying to Improve Upon the Balanced Portfolio -- Tactic #1: Tilt from the Neutral, Efficient Starting Allocation -- Observe the Golden Rule: Diversification Always Trumps Conviction -- Tactic #2: Use Active Managers to Try to Outperform the Market -- Tactic #3: Use a Combination of the Two Approaches -- Other Implementation Considerations -- Summary -- Chapter 13 Conclusion -- About the Website -- Index -- EULA.