Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Preface -- Part I -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Major Powers and Global Contenders -- 3. Deterrence and Conflict -- Part II -- 4. Balance of Power and Power Shifts: Global Interests at Stake -- 5. Credibility and Geopolitics: Regional Interests at Stake -- 6. Resolve and Domestic Costs: Internal Interests at Stake -- Part III -- 7. Predicting Major Power Conflicts: High Stakes or Costly Signals? -- 8. Theoretical and Policy Implications -- Appendixes -- A. Case Summaries and Sources -- B. Conceptual and Operational Rules for Major Powers -- C. Sources and Data for Colonial Possessions and Foreign Trade -- D. Questions of Statistical Analysis and Discrete Choice Models -- Notes -- References -- Index.