Cover image for Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in Emerging Markets.
Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in Emerging Markets.
Title:
Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in Emerging Markets.
Author:
Fund, International Monetary.
ISBN:
9781451997354
Physical Description:
1 online resource (32 pages)
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Contents:
Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Literature Review -- III.Intraday Price Data and Announcements -- IV.Two-Stage Modeling of Returns and Volatility -- V. Price Dynamics in Emerging Markets -- VI.News Effects in Emerging Bond Markets -- A. Repricing and Repositioning -- B. Asymmetries and Nonlinearities -- VII.Conclusion -- References -- Tables -- Table 1. Summary Statistics for 1- and 10-Minute Bond Returns -- Table 2. Macroeconomic News Announcements -- Table 3. AR-ARCH Specification -- Table 4. Impact of Surprises in U.S. Macroeconomic News on 1-Minute Returns -- Table 5. Impact of News Arrival on 10-Minute Return Volatility -- Table 6. Impact of Positive and Negative News Arrival on 10-Minute Return Volatility -- Table 7. Impact of Surprise News in the Upper and Lower 0.70 Quantile on 10-Minute Return Volatility -- Table 8. Impact of News Arrival on 10-Minute Return Volatility Before and During the Subprime Crisis -- Figures -- Figure 1. Intraday Volatility Patterns Before and During The Subprime Crisis -- Figure 2. Autocorrelation of Ten-Minute Return Volatility and Volatility Innovations -- Figure 3. Price Response to Surprises in U.S. Macroeconomic News -- Figure 4. Volatility Response to Local News Arrival -- Figure 5. Volatility Response to U.S. News Arrival.
Abstract:
This study characterizes volatility dynamics in external emerging bond markets and examines how prices and volatility respond to news about macroeconomic fundamentals. As in mature bond markets, macroeconomic surprises in external emerging bond markets are found to a¤ect both conditional returns and volatility, with the e¤ects on volatility being more pronounced and longer lasting than those on prices. Yet the process of information absorption tends to be more drawn out than in mature bond markets. International and regional macroeconomic news is at least as important as local news for both asset valuations and volatility dynamics in external emerging bond markets.
Local Note:
Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2017. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
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