Contents -- 1. INTRODUCTION -- 1.1 Brief History -- 1.2 HIV Virus and Its Clinical Effects -- 1.3 Measuring the Epidemic -- 1.4 Worldwide Scope of the Epidemic -- 2. RISK FACTORS FOR INFECTION AND THE PROBABILITY OF HIV TRANSMISSION -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Studies of AIDS Patients -- 2.3 Case-Control and Cohort Studies to Identify Risk Factors -- 2.4 Risks from Point Exposures -- 2.5 Sexual Transmission and Partner Studies -- 3. SURVEYS TO DETERMINE SEROPREVALENCE AND SEROINCIDENCE -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Estimating Seroprevalence Rates from Representative (Probability-Based) Samples -- 3.3 Surveys of Selected Subpopulations -- 3.4 Estimating National Seroprevalence from Surveys of Selected Subpopulations -- 3.5 Estimating HIV Incidence from Survey Data -- 4. THE INCUBATION PERIOD DISTRIBUTION -- 4.1 Introduction and Historical Overview -- 4.2 Mathematical Models for the Incubation Period Distribution -- 4.3 Retrospective Data on AIDS Cases -- 4.4 Prevalent Cohort Studies -- 4.5 Studies with Doubly Censored and Interval Censored Data -- 4.6 Deconvolution Methods (Back-Calculating the Incubation Distribution) -- 4.7 Duration of the Pre-Antibody Phase -- 4.8 Synthesis of Knowledge of the Incubation Period Distribution -- 5. COFACTORS AND MARKERS -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Cofactors and Doubly Censored Data -- 5.3 Cofactors and Prevalent Cohort Studies -- 5.4 Cofactors and Retrospective Studies of Cases -- 5.5 Markers as Prognostic Factors -- 5.6 The Marker Trajectory -- 5.7 Other Uses of Markers -- 5.8 Variability of Markers -- 5.9 Synthesis of Knowledge of Cofactors and Markers -- 6. SCREENING AND ACCURACY OF TESTS FOR HIV -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Sensitivity, Specificity, and Related Measures of Accuracy for Diagnostic Tests -- 6.3 Screening Applications and Positive Predictive Value -- 6.4 Safety of the Blood Supply.

6.5 Assays for Live Virus, for HIV Antigen, and for HIV Genome -- 7. STATISTICAL ISSUES IN SURVEILLANCE OF AIDS INCIDENCE -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 AIDS Incidence Data -- 7.3 Statistical Analysis of Reporting Delays -- 7.4 Underreporting of AIDS Cases -- 7.5 Changes in the Surveillance Definition -- 7.6 Empirical Extrapolation of AIDS Incidence -- 8. BACK-CALCULATION -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Deterministic Deconvolution -- 8.3 Statistical Deconvolution -- 8.4 Uncertainty in Back-Calculation -- 8.5 Back-Calculation for Investigating Hypotheses About the Infection Rate -- 8.6 Generalized Back-Calculation: Extension to Account for Nonstationary Incubation Distributions -- 8.7 Application to the U.S. AIDS Epidemic -- 8.8 Technical Notes -- 9. EPIDEMIC TRANSMISSION MODELS -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 A Closed Two-Compartment Model -- 9.3 Generalizations of the Closed Two-Compartment Model -- 9.4 Heterogeneous Subgroups and the Importance of Mixing Patterns -- 9.5 Evaluating Prevention Strategies -- 9.6 Stochastic Epidemic Models -- 9.7 Comparing Parameters in Epidemic Models with Empirical Estimates of Doubling Times and HIV Prevalence Ratios -- 9.8 Discussion -- 10. SYNTHESIZING DATA SOURCES AND METHODS FOR ASSESSING THE SCOPE OF THE EPIDEMIC -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Combining Data and Methods -- 10.3 Forecasting in Developing Countries -- 10.4 Forecasting Pediatric AIDS -- 10.5 Forecasting for Small Areas -- 11. DEVELOPING AND EVALUATING NEW THERAPIES AND VACCINES -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 History of the Development of AZT -- 11.3 Approaches to Therapy Based on the Pathophysiology of HIV Disease -- 11.4 Observational Studies -- 11.5 Special Problems and Design Issues in Clinical Trials for HIV Disease -- 11.6 Vaccine Trials -- References -- Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- K -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- Q -- R -- S -- T -- U.

V -- W -- Z.