Cover -- Preface -- Contents -- Figures -- Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Chapter One - Defining the Problem -- GWOT or COIN? -- The Globalization of Insurgency and COIN -- The Untidy and Dynamic World of COIN -- What to Expect from This Report -- Chapter Two - Framing the Problem -- A Planning Construct -- Types of Insurgency -- Type I-Local Insurgency -- Type II-Local-International Insurgency -- Type III-Global-Local Insurgency -- Type IV-Global Insurgency -- Aspects of COIN -- Understanding -- Shaping -- Acting -- Timing: Understanding, Shaping, and Acting over the Lifetime ofInsurgency -- COIN Capabilities -- Territorial -- Structural -- Kinetic -- Informational -- Cognitive -- Chapter Three - Countering Type III Insurgency -- The Main Threat -- COIN Challenges from Type III Insurgencies -- The Paradox of Force -- Achieving Legitimacy and Security While ReducingReliance on Deadly Force -- Chapter Four - Overview of Capabilities Needed to CounterType III Insurgency -- Timely Civil COIN -- The Power of Information -- Improving Local Forces -- A Change in Emphasis for U.S. Military Forces -- Chapter Five - Civil Capabilities -- Introduction -- Competition in the Civil Realm -- Strategies to Meet the Challenges of Type III Insurgency -- Carrot-and-Stick -- Hearts-and-Minds -- Transformation -- Integrating the Three Strategies to Counter Type IIIInsurgency -- Expertise and Resources in Functional Areas -- Coordinated Participation of Multiple Organizations -- The Host Nation -- The U.S. Government -- Other Governments -- International Organizations -- Nongovernmental Organizations -- Guiding Principles for Implementing a Strategy -- Coordinate Civil and Military Efforts -- Start Early -- Manage Expectations -- Current Efforts -- Capabilities: How Ready Is the United States to ConductCivil COIN?.

Nature of the Quantitative Analysis -- The Necessary Operational Culture Is Lacking -- Current Numbers of Personnel Are Too Low -- Fiscal Resources Are Insufficient -- Thinking About Future Capabilities -- Illustrative Scenario 1: "The Big One" -- Illustrative Scenario 2: Two "Mediums" -- Illustrative Scenario 3: Two "Mediums" Plus Prevention -- The Security Problem -- Conclusion -- Chapter Six - Information Capabilities -- Information as a Strategic Resource -- Putting Users First in Setting and Meeting InformationRequirements -- Getting Information -- Promoting a Cell Phone Society -- National Registry-Census, ID Cards, and Vetting -- Three-Dimensional Awareness -- Embedded Video -- National Wiki -- Enabling Information Users to Be Productive Information Providers -- ICON -- How Much Difference Would ICON Make? -- An ICONic Vignette -- Feasibility and Implementation -- Chapter Seven - Perception and Cognition -- Influencing Opinion -- From Information Power to Brain Power -- Cognitive Capabilities for COIN -- Conclusion -- Chapter Eight - General Security Capabilities -- Rethinking Basic Requirements -- Core Security Capabilities -- Institutional Management Capacity -- Uniformed Command and Leadership -- Logistics -- IO Capabilities and Competence -- Justice Systems -- Police and Law Enforcement -- Constabulary Police -- Technical Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) -- Human Intelligence -- Border Security -- Coastal Security -- Tactical Air Mobility -- Long-Range Air Mobility -- Specialized Forces for High-Value Targets (HVTs) -- Precision Strike -- Ground Combat -- The Relationship of Local and Foreign Capabilities -- Chapter Nine - Local Security Capabilities -- Factors Affecting Local Capability -- Timing -- Insurgent Strength -- Initial Condition of the Local Government -- Priorities for Local Security Capabilities.

Real-World Obstacles -- Chapter Ten - U.S. Security Capabilities -- Building for Success -- Hedging Against Disappointment -- Building for Success -- Three U.S. Missions: Prepare, Enable, Operate -- Requirements for Preparing, Enabling, and Operating -- Deficient U.S. Capabilities -- Hedging Against Disappointment -- Training and Education -- Nonlethal Force Options -- Land Mobility -- Inclusive, Integrated, User-Based Networks for Sharing andCollaboration -- Sustainable Ground Operations -- U.S. Ground Forces-Better or Bigger? -- Conclusion -- Chapter Eleven - Multilateral Counterinsurgency -- The Case for Multilateral COIN -- The Content of Multilateral COIN Capabilities -- Preparing for Multilateral COIN -- The NATO-EU Model -- The Non-NATO Model -- Conducting Multilateral COIN -- Multilateral COIN Campaign Models -- Functions, Principles, and Options -- Political Authority, Strategy-Setting, and Policymaking -- Campaign Oversight -- Command, Control, and Collaboration in Security Operations -- Local Cooperation -- Information -- Politics -- Chapter Twelve - Investment Priorities -- The Need to Invest -- Setting Investment Priorities -- Planning High-Priority Investments -- Investing for an Uncertain Future -- Costs -- Conclusion -- Chapter Thirteen - Organization: Unsettled Structures forUnsettled Times -- Organizational Issues in Perspective -- Capability Gaps and Organizational Implications -- Justice and Police -- Building Local Security Institutional Capacity -- Organizing, Training, Equipping, and Advising Foreign Armed Forces -- Employment Impact -- Mass Public Education -- Macro-Structural Considerations -- Government Option 1: Business-as-Usual -- Government Option 2: Install a COIN Czar -- Government Option 3: Create a COIN Agency -- Defense COIN Options -- Defense Option 1: Business-as-Usual.

Defense Option 2: Expand the Scope and Size of U.S. SOCOM -- Defense Option 3: Assign COIN as a Principal Mission of RegularForces -- Defense Option 4: Create a Defense Security Agency -- Summary -- Micro-Structural Considerations -- Chapter Fourteen - Implications and Recommendations -- Definitions Matter -- Complete and Balanced COIN Capabilities -- Will It Really Work? -- Implementation Strategy -- Investment -- Organization -- Harnessing Information Power -- Multilateral COIN -- Engendering Local Responsibility -- Getting Started: Specific Recommendations forImmediate Attention -- Civil COIN -- Information and Cognition -- Local Security Services -- U.S. Forces -- Multilateral -- Organization -- Conclusion -- Appendix A - Eighty-Nine Insurgencies: Outcomes and Endings -- Appendix B - Multilateral COIN Capacity -- Appendix C - Indicators and Warnings -- Appendix D - Ground-Force Tasks and Improvements -- About the RAND COIN Team -- Works Cited.