The Epidemiological Transition -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- Introduction -- TRANSITIONS IN MORTALITY AND EPIDEMIOLOGIC PATTERNS -- DATA DEFICIENCIES -- ORGANIZATION OF THIS VOLUME -- Demographic and Epidemiologic Data -- Setting Priorities in a Changing Epidemiological Environment -- Providers of Services: Roles of Government, Private Sector, and Families -- CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES -- Shifts in the Structure of Population and Deaths in Less Developed Regions -- INTRODUCTION -- POPULATION GROWTH AND AGE STRUCTURES -- Child Population Aged 0-14 -- Reproductive Age Population Aged 15-49 -- Postreproductive Age Population: Those 50 and Older -- Urban-Rural Makeup -- DISTRIBUTION OF DEATHS BY SEX AND AGE -- Age Patterns of Mortality -- African Distribution of Deaths -- Changes in Deaths Over the Next 25 Years Without the AIDS Pandemic -- Potential Effect of the AIDS Pandemic on the Number and Distribution of African Deaths -- SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- Mortality by Cause, 1970 to 2015 -- BACKGROUND -- METHOD -- Grouping Causes of Death -- Data on Causes of Death -- Estimating and Projecting Mortality -- Estimating Mortality Rates by Major Cause -- Estimating Cause-Specific Mortality Rates -- RESULTS -- Demographic Background -- Current Causes of Death -- Trends in Major Causes of Death -- Age-Sex Specific Patterns -- Reliability of Estimates -- DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- Childhood Precursors of Adult Morbidity and Mortality in Developing Countries: Implications for Health Programs -- INTRODUCTION -- BACKGROUND -- CLASSIFICATION OF DISEASES OR CONDITIONS OF INFANCY AND CHILDHOOD WITH CONSEQUENCES FOR ADULTS -- Perinatal Conditions -- Low Birthweight -- Birth Trauma, Asphyxia, Metabolic Disorders -- Congenital and Perinatal Infections -- Infectious Diseases of Childhood -- Tuberculosis -- Rheumatic Fever -- Polio -- Trachoma -- Chagas' Disease.

Schistosomiasis -- Helicobacter Pylori -- Epstein-Barr Virus -- Nutritional Deficiencies in Infancy and Childhood -- Protein-Energy Malnutrition -- Micronutrient Deficiencies -- Environmental Hazards -- Indoor Air Pollution -- Lead Exposure -- SYNERGISM OF CHILDHOOD RISK FACTORS PRODUCING ADULT DISEASE -- INFLUENCE OF CHILDHOOD-ACQUIRED DISEASES ON ADULT MORTALITY-COUNTRY STUDIES -- CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES -- Projecting Morbidity and Mortality in Developing Countries During Adulthood -- INTRODUCTION -- COMBINING MULTIPLE DATA SOURCES -- Developed Countries -- Developing Countries -- FORECASTING MODEL BASED ON INDIVIDUAL HEALTH CHANGES -- Risk Factor Regressions -- Multivariate Hazard Functions -- Cost Estimation -- EXAMPLES -- Risk Factor Intervention -- Active Life Expectancy (ALE) -- SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- Health Indices as a Guide to Health Sector Planning: A Demographic Critique -- INTRODUCTION -- BACKGROUND -- EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF HEALTH INTERVENTIONS -- Health Programs That Operate for One Year -- Multiyear Health Programs -- Adding Health to Years of Life -- Program Interactions -- How Should Births Added by Health Programs be Treated? -- DISCUSSION -- SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- Health Policy Issues in Three Latin American Countries: Implications of the Epidemiological Transition -- INTRODUCTION -- CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR EXAMINATION OF POLICY IMPLICATIONS -- HEALTH POLICY IN BRAZIL, COLOMBIA, AND MEXICO -- Social and Economic Characteristics -- Population Dynamics -- Health Status -- Main Characteristics of Health Systems -- Organizational Structure -- Source of Finance -- Coverage -- Distribution of Resources -- Decentralization of Health Services -- HEALTH POLICY ISSUES AND OPTIONS -- Provision of Health Services as a Means to Redistribute Welfare -- Change in Eligibility Criteria for Access to Health Services -- Tax Reform.

Ration or Eliminate Health Interventions of Low Cost-Effectiveness -- Expand Coverage of Public Health Services for the Poor -- Reduce Differences in Quality of Care between Health Agencies -- Reform of the Health Care Model -- Increase the Technological Complexity of the Primary Level of Care -- Restrict Hospital Care -- Create or Strengthen Advanced Primary Health Care Centers -- Improved Efficiency and Quality of Care -- Certification of Hospitals -- Certification of Physicians and Other Health Professionals -- Quality Assurance Systems -- National Capacity Building for Strategic Health Planning -- Development of Human Resources in Planning and Management -- Better Quality of Health Information Systems -- Development and Strengthening of Essential National Health Research -- Capacity Building in Health Technology Assessment -- CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES -- APPENDIX -- Goals of the World Summit for Children and Their Implications for Health Policy in the 1990s -- INTRODUCTION -- MAGNITUDE OF THE SUMMIT GOALS -- Proposed Mortality Reductions in Light of Past Experience -- Potential Demographic Consequences -- Child Mortality Decline and Fertility Decline -- METHODS FOR IMPLEMENTING SUMMIT GOALS -- Interventions That Are Most Likely to Reduce Child Mortality and Morbidity -- Implications of Pursuing Some Goals and Not Others -- SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- APPENDIX -- Distributional Implications of Alternative Strategic Responses to the Demographic-Epidemiological Transition-An Initial… -- INTRODUCTION -- THE OVERALL SITUATION -- RANGE OF INTRACOUNTRY MORTALITY DIFFERENCES -- FRAMEWORK -- AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY -- CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY -- OTHER CONSIDERATIONS -- CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES -- APPENDIX -- NOTES -- Health, Government, and the Poor: The Case for the Private Sector -- INTRODUCTION.

WHY IS GOVERNMENT HEALTH SPENDING BOTH INEFFICIENT AND INEQUITABLE? -- Welfare Theory Versus Public Choice Theory -- Veil of Ignorance -- Fiscal Illusion -- High Costs of Public Sector Provision -- Rent Seeking -- Public Choice in Developing Countries -- FUTURE EFFECTIVENESS OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON HEALTH -- Correlation Between Mortality and Poverty -- Population Aging and Disease Patterns -- Endogeneity of Medical Research -- Other Reasons for Pessimism -- EXAMPLES AND THE PRIVATIZATION SOLUTION -- Examples of Inefficient and Inequitable Public Health Spending -- How Shifting to Private Spending Could Help -- Pitfalls and Problems -- CONCLUSION AND POLITICAL STRATEGIES -- REFERENCES -- Roles of Women, Families, and Communities in Preventing Illness and Providing Health Services in Developing Countries -- INTRODUCTION -- TRADITIONAL SOCIETY AND HEALTH BELIEFS -- TRADITIONAL FAMILY AND COMMUNITY STRUCTURE-IMPLICATIONS FOR CARE AND HEALTH DECISIONS -- TRANSITIONAL SOCIETY -- IDENTIFYING POLICY PATHS -- OTHER STAGES OF THE EPIDEMIOLOGIC TRANSITION AND QUESTIONS OF ADULT MORTALITY -- REFERENCES.