Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- Figures -- Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Chapter One: Introduction -- The State of the Literature -- Purpose and Scope of This Study -- Levels of Analysis -- Methods and Features of the Analysis -- Scope, Boundaries, and Parameters -- Exclusively Open-Source Analysis -- Summary of Findings -- Chapter Two: Different Paths: Chinese and U.S. Military Development, 1996-2017 -- The Development of China's Military -- China's Military in 1996 -- Modernization Since 1996 -- Development of the U.S. Military Since 1996 -- The U.S. Military in 1996 -- U.S. Force Development, 1996-2015 -- China in U.S. Defense Policy -- Chapter Three: Scorecard 1: Chinese Capability to Attack Air Bases -- Chinese Military Thought on the Use of Precision Missiles -- Force Structure -- Development of the Second Artillery, 1996-2015 -- Estimating the 2017 Inventory -- Operational Analysis: Taiwan Scenario -- Runway Attacks -- Parking Area Attacks -- Cruise Missile Attacks on Infrastructure -- A Note on Mixed Attacks -- Operational Implications -- Operational Analysis: Spratly Islands Scenario -- Conclusions -- Scorecard Coding -- Chapter Four: Scorecard 2: Air Campaigns Over Taiwan and the Spratly Islands -- Methodology -- Taiwan Scenario -- Force Structure Inputs -- Force Capability Inputs -- Taiwan Scenario Results -- Spratly Islands Scenario -- Conclusions -- Scorecard Coding -- Chapter Five: Scorecard 3: U.S. Penetration of Chinese Airspace -- Balance of Forces: Chinese IADS Modernization -- Early Warning -- Long-Range Surface-to-Air Missiles -- Air Interceptors -- Balance of Forces: United States -- U.S. SEAD Forces -- Stealth -- Standoff Strike Weapons -- Penetrating Chinese Defenses -- Air Defense Penetration in the Taiwan Scenario -- Air Defense Penetration in the Spratly Scenario.

Lethal Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses -- Methodology -- SEAD Results for the Taiwan Scenario -- SEAD Results for the Spratly Islands Scenario -- U.S. ISR and SAM "Hide" Tactics -- Lethal SEAD Summary -- Conclusions -- Scorecard Coding -- Chapter Six: Scorecard 4: U.S. Capability to Attack Chinese Air Bases -- U.S. Bombers and Missiles -- Legacy Bombers -- Stealth Bombers -- Long-Range Missiles -- U.S. Bomber Access to Chinese Air Bases -- Identifying Air Bases -- Taiwan Scenario Air Bases -- Spratly Islands Scenario Air Bases -- Attacking Runways -- Base-Days of Closure -- Taiwan Scenario Outcomes -- Long-Duration Conflicts -- Summary of Runway Attack -- Attacking Parked Aircraft -- Attacking Aircraft on the Ground -- Conclusions -- Scorecard Coding -- Chapter Seven: Scorecard 5: Chinese Anti-Surface Warfare -- Chinese Over-the-Horizon Targeting Complex -- China's Over-the-Horizon Surveillance Systems -- Cueing: OTH Radar and Naval Ocean Surveillance Systems -- Space-Based Imaging Assets -- C4ISR Capabilities -- Countering Chinese OTH ISR -- Chinese OTH Targeting: Summary -- The Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Threat -- Executing the ASBM End-to-End Kill Chain -- ASBM Summary and Future Developments -- The Chinese Anti-Ship Cruise Missile Threat -- Air-Launched ASCMs -- Surface and Submarine-Launched ASCMs -- Developments in U.S. Naval Air and Missile Defenses -- Chinese Submarine Threat -- The Chinese Submarine Fleet -- U.S. Anti-Submarine Warfare Assets -- Modeling Chinese and U.S. Sonar Performance -- Submarine Model Results -- Conclusions -- Scorecard Coding -- Chapter Eight: Scorecard 6: U.S. Anti-Surface Warfare Capabilities Versus Chinese Naval Ships -- Taiwan Scenario -- PLA Amphibious Fleet -- U.S. Submarine Campaign Against PLA Amphibious Fleet -- U.S. Air Strikes Versus PLA Amphibious Invasion Fleet.

U.S. Surface Strikes Versus PLA Amphibious Invasion Fleet -- Spratly Islands Scenario -- Conclusions -- Scorecard Coding -- Chapter Nine: Scorecard 7: U.S. Counterspace Capabilities Versus Chinese Space Systems -- U.S. and Chinese Orbital Infrastructures -- U.S. Counterspace Versus Chinese Space Capabilities -- Dedicated Counterspace Systems -- Dual-Use Capabilities -- Resultant Risks for Chinese Space Capabilities -- Conclusions -- Scorecard Coding -- Chapter Ten: Scorecard 8: Chinese Counterspace Capabilities Versus U.S. Space Systems -- Chinese Efforts to Develop Counterspace Capabilities -- Chinese Laser Developments -- Kinetic Anti-Satellite and Ballistic Missile Defense Capabilities -- Radio-Frequency Jammers and Other Capabilities -- Resultant Risks for U.S. Space Capabilities -- Conclusions -- Scorecard Coding -- Chapter Eleven: Scorecard 9: U.S. and Chinese Cyberwarfare Capabilities -- Operational Cyberwarfare -- China's Operational Cyberwarfare Against Logistics Targets -- China's Operational Cyberwarfare Against SCADA Systems -- China's Operational Cyberwarfare Against Command-and-Control Systems -- China's Operational Cyberwarfare Against Weapon Systems -- U.S. Operational Cyberwarfare Capabilities -- Strategic Cyberwarfare -- Chinese Strategic Cyberwarfare Activities -- U.S. Strategic Cyberwarfare Capabilities -- Comparative Military Cyberwarfare Capabilities -- Doctrine -- Organization -- Materiel -- Leadership -- Network Management -- Zero-Day Approach -- Conclusions -- Scorecard Coding -- Chapter Twelve: Scorecard 10: U.S. and Chinese Strategic Nuclear Stability -- Methodology -- Alert Levels -- Warhead Salvo Success -- Targeting -- Exploring the U.S.-China Nuclear Balance, 1996-2017 -- China and the United States in 1996 -- China and the United States in 2003 -- China and the United States in 2010.

China and the United States in 2017 -- Conclusions -- Scorecard Coding -- Chapter Thirteen: The Receding Frontier of U.S. Dominance -- Scorecard Summary Findings -- Trend Lines Are Moving Against the United States -- Trends Vary by Mission Area -- Distances (Even Relatively Short Distances) Matter -- China Can Pose Problems for the United States Without Catching Up -- Coding the Scorecard Results -- Evaluating the Scenarios -- Taiwan Scenario -- Spratly Islands Scenario -- Conclusions -- Chapter Fourteen: Implications and Recommendations -- Shaping Perceptions -- Refocusing Procurement and Force Structure -- Concepts of Operations -- U.S. Diplomacy and the Search for Strategic Depth -- Minimizing the Risks of Vertical Escalation -- Conclusions and Suggestions for Future Research -- Bibliography.