Table of Contents -- List of Figures XIII -- List of Tables XVII -- Acronyms XIX -- Nomenclature XXI -- 1 Introduction 1 -- 1.1 Markets for Risky Assets 1 -- 1.2 Structure of This Work 2 -- 2 Study 1: External Certi cation in the Fundraising of First- Time Private Equity Funds 9 -- 2.1 Introduction 9 -- 2.2 Problems and Mitigation Options in Private Equity Fundraising 11 -- 2.2.1 Screening 13 -- 2.2.2 Self-selection and signaling 14 -- 2.3 Intermediaries Supporting Fundraising of First-Time PE Funds 17 -- 2.3.1 The Role of Intermediaries 17 -- 2.3.2 Rating Agencies 18 -- 2.3.3 Placement Agents 21 -- 2.3.4 Lead Investors 25 -- 2.3.5 Interim Summary 27 -- 2.4 The Model 28 -- 2.4.1 Analysis of a Certi er's Behavior in a Market with Unlimited Capital Supply 28 -- 2.4.2 Comparison of Di erent Types of Certi ers in a Market with Capital Supply Limitations 44 -- 2.5 Conclusion 72 -- 3 Study 2: A New Approach to Predict the Performance of Venture Capital Direct Investments 79 -- 3.1 Introduction 79 -- 3.2 Related Studies 82 -- 3.3 Methodological Considerations For a New Prediction Approach 87 -- 3.3.1 Data Completeness and Representativeness 88 -- 3.3.2 Performance Measurement 89 -- 3.3.3 Methodology Choice 93 -- 3.3.4 Parameters and Indicators of Investment Performance 104 -- 3.4 Empirical Analysis and Test of the Prediction Methodology 109 -- 3.4.1 Data Description 109 -- 3.4.2 Parameters of Investment Performance 120 -- 3.4.3 Power of the Prediction of the Direct Investment Return Distribution Pattern 138 -- 3.5 Extensions of the Model to Funds and Funds-of-Funds 142 -- 3.5.1 Approach Using the Mean IRR of a Fund's Direct Investments 142 -- 3.5.2 Approach Using the Mean MIRR of Direct Investment Returns over a Fund's Lifetime 143 -- 3.6 Conclusions 150 -- 4 Study 3: European Venture Capital: What can we learn from the past? 153.

4.1 Introduction 153 -- 4.2 Related Literature 155 -- 4.3 Data Description 162 -- 4.3.1 The Fund Sample 164 -- 4.3.2 Composition and Representativeness of the CEPRES Sample 169 -- 4.4 Historical Performance of the European Venture Capital Industry 170 -- 4.4.1 Performance Measures Applied in this Study 170 -- 4.4.2 Development of Venture Capital Before and After the Internet Bubble in Europe and the US 174 -- 4.4.3 Net Performance of European Venture Capital Funds 175 -- 4.4.4 Con rmation of Negative Fund Performance by Other Studies 179 -- 4.4.5 Gross Performance of European Venture Capital Portfolio Companies 181 -- 4.5 Investor Success in European Venture Capital 189 -- 4.5.1 Overview on Limited Partner Sample 189 -- 4.5.2 The Investment Behavior of Different Investor Groups 192 -- 4.5.3 The Investment Success of Different Investor Groups 196 -- 4.6 Reasons for the Low Performance of European Venture Capital 201 -- 4.6.1 European Market Attractiveness 202 -- 4.6.2 European Innovativeness 207 -- 4.6.3 Limited Partner Behavior 211 -- 4.6.4 Fund Manager Behavior 215 -- 4.7 Conclusions 217 -- Bibliography 221 -- Appendices -- Appendices for Chapter 2 237 -- 1 Proofs of Lemmas and Theorems 237 -- 2 Proofs of Lemmas and Theorems 237 -- 3 Proofs of Lemmas and Theorems 238 -- 4 Proofs of Lemmas and Theorems 239 -- 5 Proofs of Lemmas and Theorems 239 -- 6 Proofs of Lemmas and Theorems 240 -- 7 Proofs of Lemmas and Theorems 240 -- 8 Proofs of Lemmas and Theorems 241 -- 9 Proofs of Lemmas and Theorems 241 -- Appendices for Chapter 3 243 -- 10 Sector Classi cation 243.