Contents -- Preface -- List of Editors and Authors -- List of Tables and Figures -- Introduction: A Historic Survey of Macroeconometric Models in Japan Shinichi Ichimura -- 1 AvailableStatistics in Japan -- 1.1 Rich historic statistics -- 1.2 Long term economic statistics -- 1.3 Japanesenational income statistics -- 1.4 Interindustrial relations tables -- 1.5 Surveydata -- 1.6 Flow of funds table -- 2 Social Accounting Approaches and Use of Survey Data -- 2.1 Great ratios in national income accounts -- 2.2 Identification of post-war Japanese business cycles -- 3 Input-Output Analysis and CGE Models -- 3.1 Structural analysis with IO tables -- 3.2 Applications to regional analyses and CGE models -- 3.3 Flow of funds tables and its applications -- 4 Macroeconometric Models -- 4.1 Kazuo Sato's survey and other readings of Japanesemodels -- 4.2 Long-term modeling and quantitative economic history -- 4.3 Standard macroeconometric models in early stages -- 4.4 Models integrated with IO analysis and internationally linked -- 4.5 Macroeconometric models after 1988 -- 4.6 High frequency short-term forecasting model andmedium-termmodel -- Appendix: On Computer Programs for LargeMulti-County EconometricModels -- References -- Part I. Social Accounting and Survey Analysis -- Chapter 1: Factors for Rapid Growth of the Japanese Economy: A Social Accounting Approach Shinichi Ichimura -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Exposition of a Simple Social Accounting Model -- 3 Our Social Accounting System and Statistical Data -- 4 Rapid Industrialization, Dual Structure and Technical Progress -- 5 Supply of Productive Factors and Technical Progress -- 6 Resource Allocation and Market Mechanism -- 7 The Growth of National Expenditure and Its Composition -- Appendix: Statistical Data -- References -- Chapter 2: Social Accounting Analysis of Japan's Lost 90s Hyun Suk.

1 Introduction -- 2 Construction and Applications of MSAM -- 2.1 Macroeconomic SAM -- 2.2 The MSAM multipliers -- 3 SAM Multiplier Analysis -- 4 Summary -- References -- Websites -- Chapter 3: Business Indexes and Survey Data for Forecast Yuji Shimanaka and Tatsushi Shikano -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Criteria to Recognize Economic Conditions -- 2.1 The business indexes, GDP statistics, andtheBOJTankan. -- 2.2 Schumpeter's approach and the BOJ's Tankan -- 2.3 Momentary wind velocity and the GDP growth rate -- 2.4 Predicting the economic outlook by the direction of change -- 2.5 Monthly surveys-Reuters, economy watchers, and the consumer confidence -- 3 The Use of Leading Indexes- MUS Leading Index -- 3.1 The history of Japan's business indexes -- 3.2 The MUS Leading Index (MUS-LI) for the Japanese economy -- 3.3 The performance of the MUS-LI for the Japanese economy -- 3.4 The merits and demerits of forecasts using leadingindexes -- References -- Part II. Input-Output Analyses and CGE Models -- Chapter 4: Factor Proportions and Foreign Trade: The Case of Japan Masahiro Tatemoto and Shinichi Ichimura -- 1 The Leontief Paradox? -- 2 Computational Procedures and Statistical Data -- 3 Statistical Results and Implications -- Chapter 5: Interregional Interdependence and Regional Economic Growth in Japan Takahiro Akita -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Data and Method -- 2.1 Data -- 2.2 Method -- 3 Major Findings -- 4 Conclusions -- Appendix -- References -- Chapter 6: The Flying-Geese Pattern of East Asian Development: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach Mitsuo Ezaki and Shoichi Ito -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Flying-Geese Pattern of Development -- 3 Link CGE System and Elasticity-Multipliers -- 3.1 Basic framework -- 3.2 Data -- 3.3 Structure -- 3.4 Solution method -- 3.5 Elasticity-multipliers -- 4 Comparative Statics and Dynamics of Technology Changes.

4.1 Theory of flying-geese pattern -- 4.2 Differences in technology -- 4.3 Comparative statics of technology changes -- 4.4 Comparative dynamics of technology changes -- 5 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 7: A Flow-of-Funds Analysis of Quantitative Monetary Policy Kazusuke Tsujimura and Masako Tsujimura -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Asset Liability Matrix -- 2.1 E- andR-tables -- 2.2 Y- and Y.-tables -- 3 Methodologies -- 3.1 ALM with BOJ as exogenous institutional sector -- 3.2 Evaluation of quantitative monetary policy -- 3.3 Contributing factors to fluctuations in NII -- 4 Estimation Results -- 4.1 Monthly fluctuations and the degree of contribution toNII -- 4.2 Examination of money market operation methods -- 5 PolicyImplications -- Appendix -- A.1 Y and Y.matrices -- A.2 εY and ρY in theY-table -- A.3 εY and ρY in the Y.-table -- References -- Part III. Macroeconometric Models -- Chapter 8: An Econometric Model of Japanese Economic Growth, 1878-1937 Lawrence R. Klein -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Nature of the Model -- 3 The Sample and Estimates -- 4 Extrapolation and the Rate of Growth of the Japanese Economy -- Chapter 9: An Econometric Model of Japan, 1930-1959 Lawrence R. Klein and Yoichi Shinkai -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Rationale of the Model -- 2.1 Thevariables -- 2.2 The estimatedequations -- 3 Some Properties of the System -- 4 Extrapolation to 1959 -- 5 Prospects for Japanese Development in the Light of theModel -- Appendix -- Sources of data -- Sources of data for extrapolation and forecasting -- Chapter 10: Osaka ISER Model -- I. An Outline of the Model Lawrence R. Klein and Shinichi Ichimura -- 1 The ISER Model in Contemporary Macroeconomic Theory -- 2 The Model and Data Availability -- 3 The General Framework -- 4 List of Time Series and Symbols -- 4.1 Series of production sectors5 -- 4.2 Series of the household sector.

4.3 Series of external trade -- 4.4 Financial series -- 4.5 Series related to the government sector (100 billion Yen unless otherwise specified) -- 4.6 Series relating to aggregate national accounts (100 billion Yen unless otherwise specified) -- 4.7 Series of total population and employment -- 5 A Quarterly Econometric Model of Japan, 1952-1959 -- II. Detailed Discussion of the Model Shinichi Ichimura, Lawrence R. Klein, Susumu Koizumi and Kazuo Sato -- 1 Manufacturing Sector -- 1.1 Production decision functions -- 1.2 Production function -- 1.3 Material input function -- 1.4 Price determination equations -- 1.5 Material price determination equations -- 1.6 Wage-rate determination equations -- 1.7 Fixed investment functions -- 2 Inventory Investment -- 2.1 Manufacturing inventories-finished goods -- 2.2 Manufacturing inventories-raw materials and goods in process -- 2.3 Dealers' inventories -- 2.4 Orders -- 2.5 Agricultural inventoryequation -- 3 Tertiaryand Agriculture Sectors -- 3-A Tertiary sector -- 3-A.1. Production decision function -- 3-A.2. Production function -- 3-A.3. Price determination equation -- 3-A.4. Wage determination equation -- 3-A.5. Investment function -- 3-B Agricultural sector -- 3-B.1. Production function -- 3-B.2. Quarterly income equation -- 3-B.3. Agricultural employment function -- 3-B.4. Agricultural price determination equation -- 4 Household sector -- 4.1 Consumption functions of food, textile and other -- 4.2 The residential investment function -- 4.3 Consumers' prices determination equation -- 5 The Financial Sector -- 5.1 The demand functions of individuals and private corporations -- 5.2 The demand functions of corporations -- 5.3 The demand functions of the government sector -- 5.4 The behavior equations of the financial sector -- 5.5 The determination of the rate of interest.

5.6 The policy equation of the Bank of Japan -- 6 The Foreign Trade Sector -- 6-A Import functions -- 6-A.1. Import of food and forage -- 6-A.2. Import of materials and other -- 6-A.3. Import of machinery -- 6-B Export functions -- 6-B.1. General remarks -- 6-B.2. Ships -- 6-B.3. Machinery -- 6-B.4. Steel and other metal products -- 6-B.5. Textiles -- 6-B.6. Food -- 6-B.7. Other commodities -- 7 Miscellaneous Equations and Identities -- III. Dynamic Properties of the Model Shinichi Ichimura and Lawrence R. Klein -- 1 Impact Multipliers -- 2 Final Test -- 3 Dynamic Multipliers of Government Expenditure and Exports -- 4 Multiplier Effects of the Fall in Impact Prices -- 5 Multiplier Effects of Rise in Agricultural Productivity -- 6 Multiplier Effects for Personal Income Tax Reduction -- 7 Multiplier Effects of Excise Tax Cut -- 8 Analysisof theEffects ofMonetaryPolicies -- Appendix -- References -- Chapter 11: The Japan Model for World Project LINK Kanemi Ban -- 1 Introduction -- 2 List of Variables in the Ban Model -- 3 The System of Equations -- 3.1 Expenditure side equations -- 3.2 Price variables -- 3.3 Labor andwork variables -- 3.4 Households Sector -- 3.5 Corporate sector -- 3.6 Government sector -- 3.7 Financial sector -- 3.8 Foreigntrade -- Chapter 12: The Saito Model of the Japanese Economy Mitsuo Saito -- 1 Introduction -- 2 List of Variables -- 3 The System of Equations -- 3.1 The expenditure sector -- 3.2 The distribution sector -- 3.3 Theprice sector -- 3.4 Government, banks and external balances -- 3.5 Additions to the model, 1974-1993 -- 4 Final Test -- 5 D.W.Ratios in theModel -- 6 Changes in the Foreign Exchange Rate and their Effects -- 7 Effects of Oil Crisis -- 8 An Analysis of the Low Rate of Growth in the 1990s -- Chapter 13: High FrequencyModel vs. Consensus Forecast Yoshihisa Inada -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Consensus Forecast.

2.1 ESP forecast survey.