Golden Aging : Prospects for Healthy, Active, and Prosperous Aging in Europe and Central Asia.
Title:
Golden Aging : Prospects for Healthy, Active, and Prosperous Aging in Europe and Central Asia.
Author:
Koettl, Johannes.
ISBN:
9781464803543
Personal Author:
Physical Description:
1 online resource (363 pages)
Series:
Europe and Central Asia Studies
Contents:
Cover -- Contents -- About the Authors and Contributors -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Regional Classifications Used in This Report -- Overview: Golden Aging -- Introduction -- The Demographics of Europe and Central Asia and Those of the Rest of the World -- Mixed Economic Consequences -- A Comprehensive Policy Agenda -- Notes -- References -- Part I: The Demographic Transition in Europe and Central Asia -- Overview -- The Demographic Transition and the "Golden Age" -- The Effects of Fertility Declines on Aging across the Region -- High Rates of Disease and Disability in Europe and Central Asia -- Limiting the Rise in Dependency Ratios and Improving Health Outcomes in the Region -- Migration Affects Demographics More in the Long Run -- Reference -- 1 The Drivers of Aging in Europe and Central Asia -- Introduction -- The Aging Populations of Europe and Central Asia -- The Effects of Declining Fertility on Aging and Population Growth -- The Slower Improvement of Life Expectancy in Europe and Central Asia. -- The Contribution of Migration to Aging in Some Countries -- Toward More Balanced Age Structures over the Next Half-Century -- Notes -- References -- 2 Improving Health Outcomes in the Transition to the "Golden Age" -- Introduction -- Lengthy Disability for People in Europe and Central Asia -- Declines in the Health of the Older Population in Some Countries since 1959 -- Women's Unequal Burden of Caring for the Dependent -- Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer, the Principal Causes of Premature Death in the Region -- Achieving More Healthy Aging in the Region -- Notes -- References -- Part II: The Economic Consequences of Population Aging Overview -- Overview -- Aging and the Economy: Challenges and Opportunities -- The Economic Impact of Aging in Europe and Central Asia -- Note -- References.
3 The Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging -- Introduction -- The Diverse Effects of Aging on Income and Growth -- The Effect of Aging on Savings and Labor Force Participation -- The Links between Aging and Public Finances -- Annex 3A: Brief Description of the Overlapping Generations Model -- Annex 3B: Population Aging and the Labor Force -- Annex 3C: Aging and Public Expenditures in Bulgaria in the Base Case Scenario -- Notes -- References -- 4 The Effects of Aging on Productivity: Diverse, Not Alarming -- Introduction -- Transient Effects of Aging on the Productivity of the Workforce -- The Stability of the Human Capital Stock and the Labor Force -- The Improving Quality of Education -- The Skills of Older Workers: Shifting, Not Declining -- How Firms Are Adjusting to the New Comparative Advantages -- Does Labor Reallocation Become Less Efficient with Aging? -- Does Aging Slow Innovation and Technology Adaption? -- Does Entrepreneurship Decline with Aging? -- The Mixed Impact of Aging on Productivity -- Notes -- References -- 5 Aging and Poverty and Inequality -- Introduction -- The Extent of Poverty in Aging Societies -- Does Inequality Rise with Population Aging? -- The Effects of Reforms on the Ability of Pensions to Limit Poverty and Inequality among the Elderly -- The Risk of Increasing Poverty and Inequality -- Notes -- References -- Part III: Policies -- Overview -- 6 Overcoming the Legacy of Expanding Populations -- Introduction -- Voters Are Getting Older -- The Influence of Age and Cohort Effects on Attitudes toward Immigration -- Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- 7 Promoting Healthy, Active, and Prosperous Aging -- Introduction -- Supporting the Rebalancing of Demographics -- Addressing the Economic Consequences of Aging -- What Priority for What Country? -- Notes -- References -- Boxes -- O.1 How to Define Aging?.
O.2 Is Aging to Blame for the Dramatic Economic Slowdown in Japan? -- 1.1 Nearing the End of a Demographic Transition to Stable or Declining Populations in Europe -- 1.2 Have People Had Fewer Children because of the 2008 Economic Crisis? -- 1.3 Why Fertility Is Higher in France Than in Germany -- 1.4 Do Decisions on Having a Second Child Determine Variations in Fertility across Europe? -- 1.5 Lessons of the Age of Mass Migration -- 1.6 Fertility Scenarios: The United Nations Population Division -- 1.7 Do Immigrants Raise Local Fertility Rates? -- 3.1 The Impact of Aging on Dependency Rates due to a Decline in Fertility versus a Decline in Mortality -- 3.2 A Simple Model of Savings and Investment -- 3.3 The Rise of Employment at Older Ages in the OECD -- 3.4 Regression Analysis of Correlates between Employment and Worker Characteristics at Older Ages -- 3.5 How Do Social Security Systems Influence the Effect of Aging on the Real Economy? -- 4.1 The Growing Importance of Innovation in Europe and Central Asia -- 5.1 Estimating Poverty for Demographically Different Households -- 5.2 Recent Trends in Poverty and Inequality in Europe and Central Asia, 1987-2012 -- 5.3 The Impact of Aging on Inequality -- 6.1 The Emergence of Pensioners' Parties in Europe -- 7.1 What Is Long-Term Care? -- 7.2 Innovations at BMW and CVS to Improve the Productivity of an Aging Workforce -- 7.3 "Golden" Care for the Elderly in Japan -- Figures -- O.1 The demographic drivers and economic consequences of aging create challenges and opportunities -- O.2 The intensity of policy agendas varies across countries -- O.3 The fertility transition in some countries in Europe and Central Asia is occurring much more rapidly than in advanced European countries -- O.4 Rapid aging is expected in Central Asia and Turkey over 2010-60.
O.5 60-year-old men in the Russian Federation, the Eastern Partnership, and the Baltic countries "feel" worse today (2009) than they did in 1959 -- O.6 As life expectancy increases, the gap in labor force participation rates between the young and the old narrows, 2005-11 -- O.7 The stock of human capital has expanded more than the size of the working-age population in Europe and Central Asia over the past 20 years -- B1.1.1 Europe's population has stabilized after a period of unprecedented growth -- B1.1.2 Most European countries are at the late stage of the demographic transition -- 1.1 Total fertility has declined to below the replacement rate in many countries -- 1.2 The fertility transition in some countries in Europe and Central Asia is occurring much more rapidly than in advanced European countries -- 1.3 A U-shaped relation is emerging between fertility and level of development -- B1.4.1 Having two children was most common for women aged 39-45 in Europe, 2008 -- 1.4 Life expectancy gains in Europe and Central Asia have been the lowest in the world -- 1.5 Life expectancy of men in Eastern Europe has diverged from the better performers in Europe -- 1.6 The midlife mortality crisis continues in Europe and Central Asia, 1970-2010 -- 1.7 What a difference 60 years make: Ukraine's population structure in 2010 if mortality had declined as in France from 1950 -- 1.8 Europe and Central Asia is currently a region of emigrants -- 1.9 Migrants from Europe and Central Asia are making rich countries younger and poor countries older -- 1.10 Migration played a role in population decline in many Central European countries -- 1.11 Migrants are more likely to be active and employed than natives, circa 2000-10.
1.12 The larger cohorts aged 20-29 and 45-54 of Eastern Partnership countries and the Russian Federation in 2010 will transition through the population structure -- 1.13 Rapid aging is expected in Central Asia and Turkey over 2010-60 -- 1.14 Europe and Central Asia is converging quickly to the high share of population aged 65+ in the EU-15 -- 1.15 The working-age population is projected to contract substantially in many countries in Europe and Central Asia -- 1.16 France's large postwar baby boomers bring a large rise in the 65+ age group from 2010 to 2015 -- the Russian Federation's share of the elderly will fluctuate over the next 45 years -- 1.17 A fertility rebound is critical to reviving the working-age population in Poland -- 1.18 Current migration flows in Europe and Central Asia are not enough to offset the future decrease in the working-age population -- 2.1 Europe and Central Asia experiences more disability than other regions -- 2.2 Men have fewer healthy years of life at age 50 than women in Europe and Central Asia and men in other regions -- 2.3 60-year-old men in the Russian Federation, the Eastern Partnership, and the Baltic countries "feel" worse today (2009) than they did in 1959 -- 2.4 Informal care dominates in countries in Europe and Central Asia -- 2.5 Older adults with disabilities have some access to formal care -- 2.6 Child care coverage is lower in countries in Europe and Central Asia than in other regions -- 2.7 Social norms place a high expectation on women as caregivers -- 2.8 Women are more likely than men to give care -- 2.9 European grandmothers are the "sandwich generation" -- 2.10 Europe and Central Asia loses more years of life to cardiovascular disease than to any other cause -- 2.11 Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of the life expectancy gap between Europe and Central Asia and the EU-15.
2.12 In many countries, cancer will rise dramatically in the population aged 65 and older by 2035.
Abstract:
Societies across Europe and Central Asia are aging, but people are not necessarily living longer. This demographic trend-caused by a decrease in fertility rather than improved longevity-presents both challenges and opportunities for governments, the private sector, and individuals alike. Some of the challenges are well known. Output per capita becomes smaller if it is shared with an increasingly larger group of dependent older people. At a certain point, there may not be sufficient resources to maintain the living standards of this older group, especially if rising expenditures on health care, long-term care, and pensions must be financed through the contributions and taxes paid by ever-smaller younger age groups. Working adults also contribute the most to the pool of savings. As the size of this group shrinks, savings will decline. But these challenges can be transformed into opportunities. Consider these examples: As longevity increases, workers tend to stay in the workforce longer, and, with the right incentives, they will increase their savings. Many current workers, and perhaps even more in the future, will thus not necessarily become dependent once they turn 65. And with slower population growth and smaller young age groups, societies will have an opportunity to improve the quality of education and maintain productivity. Firms in some countries are already adapting by capitalizing on skills that appreciate with age. Cardiovascular diseases account for more than half the difference in life expectancy (above age 50) between the region and Western Europe for men and 75 percent of the corresponding difference for women. Healthier behavior and health systems focused on preventive care could, with no cost increase, dramatically reduce this risk. These opportunities are not to be missed.As populations age, public discourse ranges from concerns
about economic decline and fiscal sustainability of pensions and health systems to optimism about opportunities for healthier and more productive aging. The main contribution of Golden Aging is perhaps to show that demography and its consequences are not fixed. Much will depend on how people, firms, and societies adapt and how policy makers and institutions facilitate their behavioral adjustments. The future for Europe and Central Asia does not have to be gray-it can be a golden era of healthy, active, and prosperous aging.
Local Note:
Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2017. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
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