Title Page -- Epigraph -- Dedication -- Acknowledgements -- Introduction -- Part 1 - Investment Philosophy -- INTRODUCTION -- 1 - Be the House -- Hit Me -- From Treasury to Treasure -- Prioritizing Process -- 2 - Investing-Profession or Business? -- The Scouting Report -- Evaluating the Winners -- The Investment Profession Versus the Investment Business -- 3 - The Babe Ruth Effect -- Batting with the Babe -- The Downside of Hardwiring -- Bulls, Bears, and Odds -- From OTC to OTB -- A Useful Analogy -- 4 - Sound Theory for the Attribute Weary -- Circumstance Over Attributes -- The Three Steps of Theory Building -- When, Not What -- 5 - Risky Business -- Rocket Science -- From Uncertainty to Probability -- How Predictions Change Future Payoffs -- 6 - Are You an Expert? -- Man Versus Machine -- Where Do Experts Do Well? -- 7 - The Hot Hand in Investing -- Finding the Hot Shot -- Streaks and Skill -- Toss Out the Coin Toss -- Streaks and Luck -- 8 - Time Is on My Side -- One or One Hundred -- Explaining the Equity-Risk Premium -- The Value of Inactivity -- Pictures Worth a Thousand Words -- 9 - The Low Down on the Top Brass -- Management Counts -- Leadership -- Incentives -- Capital Allocation -- The Bottom Line -- Part 2 - Psychology of Investing -- INTRODUCTION -- 10 - Good Morning, Let the Stress Begin -- Why Zebras Don't Get Ulcers -- Why Money Managers Do Get Ulcers -- Shortening Horizons -- Imitating Ulysses -- 11 - All I Really Need to Know I Learned at a Tupperware Party -- A Tip from Shining Shoes -- You Can Fool Mother Nature -- All I Really Need to Know . . . -- The Psychology of Investing -- 12 - All Systems Go -- Emotions and Decisions -- Two Follows One -- The Affect Heuristic -- When the Experiential Fails -- Affect: Individual Versus the Collective -- 13 - Guppy Love -- Guppy See, Guppy Do -- Feedback-Negative and Positive.

Follow the Ant in Front of You -- Herding from the Grapevine -- 14 - Beware of Behavioral Finance -- Sorry Syllogism -- Mug's Game? -- Bombs Away -- Money See, Money Do -- 15 - Raising Keynes -- What Do You Expect? -- Speculation and Enterprise -- Visiting El Farol -- Kidding Yourself -- 16 - Right from the Gut -- Guns and Better (Decisions) -- Chopping Down the Decision Tree -- Investing au Naturel -- The Fine Print -- 17 - Weighted Watcher -- I Do-Do You? -- Sifting Weights -- Misleading by Sample -- Tell Me Something the Market Doesn't Know -- Part 3 - Innovation and Competitive Strategy -- INTRODUCTION -- 18 - The Wright Stuff -- Take Off with Recombination -- How Does Wealth Happen? -- Sic Itur ad Astra (This Is the Way to the Stars) -- Creative Destruction-Here to Stay -- 19 - Pruned for Performance -- Too Clever by Half -- The Dynamics of Innovation -- Investors: Use the Brain -- 20 - Staying Ahead of the Curve -- Losing Pride -- Goldilocks Expectations: Too Cold, Too Hot, Just Right -- Out with the Old, In with the New -- The Mind Makes a Promise That the Body Can't Fill -- Expectations and Innovation -- 21 - Is There a Fly in Your Portfolio? -- Fruit Flies and Futility -- Speed Trap? -- Investor Evolution -- 22 - All the Right Moves -- Managing for the Long Term -- Deep Blue's Lessons -- Strategies for Winners -- Strategy as Simple Rules -- 23 - Survival of the Fittest -- A Peek at Another Peak -- Fitness Landscapes -- Look Before You Leap? -- Tools of the Trade-Off -- 24 - You'll Meet a Bad Fate If You Extrapolate -- Social Versus Security -- Nonstationarity and Historical P/Es -- Why the Past May Not Be Prologue -- Bounded Parameters -- Unpacking the (Mental) Baggage -- 25 - I've Fallen and I Can't Get Up -- Returns and Growth -- Death, Taxes, and Reversion to the Mean -- I've Fallen and I Can't Get Up -- 26 - Trench Cooperation.

The War Metaphor-Death or Life? -- Why a Date and a Marriage Are So Different -- Price and Quantity -- 27 - Great (Growth) Expectations -- Compounding and Confounding -- Reality Check -- The Bigger They Are, the Slower They Grow (or Don't Grow) -- Refuse Refuge in Castles in the Air -- Part 4 - Science and Complexity Theory -- INTRODUCTION -- 28 - Diversify Your Mind -- Ant Brain -- A-Mazing -- Getting a Diversity Degree -- Creativity and Investing -- 29 - From Honey to Money -- Smart Ant -- Traveling Salesman? Follow the Ant . . . -- Delphic Decision Markets -- The Stock Market-the Ultimate Hive? -- Swarm Smarts -- 30 - Vox Populi -- The Accuracy of Crowds -- Needle in a Haystack -- Weighing the Ox with the Vox -- Estimating Printers with Populi -- And Now, For the Real World -- 31 - A Tail of Two Worlds -- Experience Versus Exposure -- Tell Tail -- What Fat Tails Mean for Investors -- 32 - Integrating the Outliers -- Bernoulli's Challenge -- What's Normal? -- St. Petersburg and Growth Stock Investing -- Integrating the Outliers -- 33 - The Janitor's Dream -- Beyond Newton -- Sorting Systems -- The Stock Market as a Complex Adaptive System -- Using What You've Got -- 34 - Chasing Laplace's Demon -- Evolution Made Me Do It -- Laplace's Demon -- Interpreting the Market -- Investor Risks -- 35 - More Power to You -- Zipf It -- The More Things Change . . . -- Catch the Power -- 36 - The Pyramid of Numbers Firm Size, Growth Rates, and Valuation -- Why Big Fierce Animals Are Rare -- Find Your Niche -- Dear CEO: We've Made It to the Fortune 50! You're Fired -- Extrapolative Expectations -- 37 - Turn Tale -- Hush Puppies and Dogs of the Dow -- Ah Choo -- Economists, Meet Mr. Market -- No Progress in Human Nature -- Maintain Perspective -- 38 - Stairway to Shareholder Heaven -- I Could Do That -- Stairway to Shareholder Heaven -- Making the Art Less Abstract.

Order and Disorder -- Conclusion -- NOTES -- References -- Further Reading -- INDEX -- Copyright Page.