Knowing When You Do Not Know : Simulating the Poverty and Distributional Impacts of an Economic Crisis.
Title:
Knowing When You Do Not Know : Simulating the Poverty and Distributional Impacts of an Economic Crisis.
Author:
Narayan, Ambar.
ISBN:
9780821389546
Personal Author:
Physical Description:
1 online resource (76 pages)
Series:
World Bank Studies
Contents:
Title Page -- Copyright -- Contents -- List of Contributors -- Acknowledgments -- Foreword -- 1. Assessing the Poverty and Distributional Impacts of the Financial Crisis with Microsimulations: An Overview of Country Studies -- Financial Crisis and Its Impact on Poverty -- Evaluating the Impact of the Crisis -- The Methodology to Estimate Impacts Ex Ante -- How the Approach Works -- Defining the "Impact": Two Types of Countries -- Simulating the Impact of Policy Changes -- Caveats to the Approach -- Results from Micro-Macro Simulations for Four Countries -- Results for Type I Countries -- Results for Type II Countries -- Simulating the Impact of Policy Responses -- Conclusion -- 2. On Economy-Wide Shocks, Models and Politics -- When Are Second-Round and Systemic Effects a First-Order Concern? -- Implications -- When Can Information Affect Government Behavior? -- Conclusion and a Note on the World Bank -- 3. The Distributional Consequences of the Economic and Financial Crisis of 2008-09: A Comment -- Backdrop to the Issue of Distributional Consequences -- Thinking about the Problem -- The Guts of the U.S. Story -- Some Basic Generalizations -- The Current Crisis in Perspective -- Results of Quick Post Crisis Surveys -- Takeaway Observations of Relevance for Policy -- 4. Stress Testing for the Poverty Impacts of the Next Crisis -- Introduction -- The Need for a Social Protection Assessment Program (SPAP) -- An Overview of the Workshop Papers and Presentations -- An Assessment, and What's Missing -- Conclusion -- References -- Back Cover.
Abstract:
Economists have long sought to predict how macroeconomic shocks willaffect individual welfare. Macroeconomic data and forecasts are easilyavailable when crises strike. But policy action requires not onlyunderstanding the magnitude of a macro shock, but also identifyingwhich households or individuals are being hurt by (or benefit from) thecrisis.A popular solution is to extrapolate the welfare impact of a shockfrom the historical response of income or consumption poverty tochanges in output, by estimating an 'elasticity' of poverty togrowth. Although this method provides an estimate for the aggregatepoverty impact of a macro shock, it has limited value for analysts andpolicymakers alike. Aggregate numbers are useful to capture theattention of policymakers and the international community, but in theabsence of any information on who is affected and to what extent,provide little guidance on what actions need to be taken.This volume outlines a more comprehensive approach to the problem,showcasing a microsimulation model, developed in response to demandfrom World Bank staff working in countries and country governments inthe wake of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Starting with theidea of using simple macroeconomic projections as the 'macrolinkages' to a micro behavioral model built from household data,the model was conceptualized, refined and tested in a diverse mix ofcountries: Bangladesh, Philippines, Mexico, Poland and Mongolia. Theresults fed into country policy dialogue and lending operations of Bankteams, as well as various reports, research papers and briefs.
Local Note:
Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2017. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
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