Evaluating WELFARE REFORM in an Era of Transition -- Copyright -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Executive Summary -- THE PANEL -- FINDINGS -- KEY QUESTIONS OF INTEREST -- Populations of Interest -- Outcomes of Interest -- Research Questions of Interest -- EVALUATION METHODS FOR THE QUESTIONS OF INTEREST -- DATA FOR MONITORING AND EVALUATING SOCIAL WELFARE PROGRAMS -- 1 Introduction -- THE PANEL -- POLICY BACKGROUND -- STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT -- 2 Welfare Reform Monitoring and Evaluation: The Current Landscape -- Major Supporting Funders -- DESCRIPTIVE AND MONITORING STUDIES -- STUDIES OF WELFARE LEAVERS AND RELATED GROUPS -- RANDOMIZED EXPERIMENTS -- CASELOAD AND OTHER ECONOMETRIC MODELS -- PROCESS, IMPLEMENTATION, AND QUALITATIVE STUDIES -- OTHER WELFARE REFORM STUDIES -- STUDIES ON TOPICS RELATED TO WELFARE REFORM -- 3 Research Questions and Populations of Interest -- POPULATIONS OF INTEREST -- OUTCOMES OF INTEREST -- QUESTIONS OF INTEREST -- Monitoring the Well-Being of the Low-Income Population -- Characterizing and Tracking Policies, Programs, and Administrative Practices -- Formally Evaluating the Impact of Welfare Reform -- NATIONWIDE VERSUS INDIVIDUAL STATE ASSESSMENTS -- ASSESSMENT -- 4 Evaluation Methods and Issues -- OVERVIEW OF EVALUATION METHODS -- Experimental Methods -- Nonexperimental Methods -- Process Analysis and Qualitative Methods -- EVALUATION METHODS FOR THE QUESTIONS OF INTEREST -- Estimating the Overall Effects of Structural Welfare Reform -- Estimating the Effects of Individual Broad Reform Components -- Estimating the Effects of Detailed Reform Strategies -- Conclusions -- ISSUES IN EVALUATION METHODOLOGY -- Assessing the Reliability of Nonexperimental Evaluation Methods -- Specification Tests -- Sensitivity Testing -- Applying Nonexperimental Methods to Experimental Data.

Analysis of Statistical Power of Cross-State Comparison Methods -- Generalizability of Evaluation Results -- Process and Qualitative Analysis -- The Importance of Welfare Dynamics to Evaluation -- ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT EVALUATION EFFORTS -- Leaver Studies -- Randomized Experiments -- Caseload and Other Econometric Models -- Summary -- NEXT STEPS -- 5 Data Needs and Issues -- SURVEY DATA -- National-Level Survey Data -- Population Coverage -- Population Subgroups -- Nonresponse -- Timeliness -- Survey Content -- Measurement Error -- Longitudinal Data -- Use for Monitoring and Evaluation -- Use in Current Welfare Projects -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- State and Local Surveys -- Use for Monitoring and Evaluation -- Use in Current Welfare Reform Studies -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- ADMINISTRATIVE DATA -- General Issues -- Cross-State Comparability -- Research Uses of TANF-Required Data -- DATA ACCESS AND CONFIDENTIALITY -- PROGRAM DESCRIPTION DATA -- QUALITATIVE DATA -- SUMMARY AND ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT DATA INFRASTRUCTURE -- 6 Administrative Issues for Maintaining the Data Infrastructure -- THE CURRENT SYSTEM -- A PROPOSED SYSTEM -- Administrative Mechanisms and Functions -- Examples of Other Agencies -- The Functions Needed -- References -- Appendix A Major Current Welfare-Related Research Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services -- Appendix B Summary of Current Welfare Reform Projects -- Appendix C The Statistical Power of National Data to Evaluate Welfare Reform -- THE MODELS CONSIDERED -- AN INTRODUCTION TO REGRESSION POWER CALCULATIONS -- THE POWER OF CEA MODELS TO DETECT WAIVER EFFECTS AND COMPONENT EFFECTS ON AFDC CASELOADS -- THE POWER OF CPS MODELS TO DETECT WAIVER EFFECTS ON AFDC CASELOADS AND CASELOADS IN SUBSETS OF THE POPULATION.

THE POWER OF CPS MODELS TO DETECT WAIVER EFFECTS ON OTHER OUTCOME MEASURES -- OBTAINING MORE POWER -- REFERENCES -- Appendix D Summaries of National-Level Survey Data Sets Relevant to Welfare Monitoring and Evaluation -- DECENNIAL LONG FORM -- 2000 Census Long Form -- AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY -- MARCH CPS -- SURVEY OF INCOME AND PROGRAM PARTICIPATION -- SURVEY OF PROGRAM DYNAMICS -- THE NATIONAL SURVEY OF AMERICA'S FAMILIES -- THE PANEL STUDY OF INCOME DYNAMICS -- THE NATIONAL LONGITUDINAL SURVEYS OF YOUTH -- REFERENCES -- Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff -- Index.