Introduction -- Party cycles -- Separation of powers and decline of parties -- Candidate-centered politics and incumbency -- Regionalism and the decline of the democrats -- Postindustrial dislocation -- Direction of this book -- -- Shadow realignment and national partisan variation and competition -- National party strength index -- Electoral periods and shadow realignment -- National partisan strength in regions -- National partisan competition by state -- -- State partisan variation and competition -- National and state party strength indices compared -- Regional party strength -- State party competition -- -- Explaining shifting party strength, electoral reform, and conclusions -- Predicting party strengths indices -- Predicting presidential elections -- Gala 2000 -- Electoral reform -- Bush problems -- Conclusions.