RISK ANALYSIS AND UNCERTAINTY IN FLOOD DAMAGE REDUCTION STUDIES -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- Executive Summary -- APPLICATION OF RISK ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES -- Risk Measures and Modeling -- Economics -- CONSISTENT TERMINOLOGY -- LEVEE CERTIFICATION -- FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT -- 1 The Corps and U.S. Flood Damage Reduction Planning, Policies, and Programs -- RISK ANALYSIS APPROACH -- THE CORPS'S WATER RESOURCES PROJECT PLANNING PROCEDURES -- From Principles and Standards to Principles and Guidelines -- U.S. FEDERAL FLOOD PREPAREDNESS, MITIGATION, AND RESPONSE ACTIVITIES -- The "Galloway Report" -- 2 Decision Making and Communication Issues -- THE GOAL OF FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT -- MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES -- COMPARING PROJECT ALTERNATIVES -- FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES -- RISK COMMUNICATION -- 3 Risk Analysis Concepts and Terms -- UNCERTAINTY -- CONSISTENCY ACROSS PROGRAM AREAS -- RISK ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING -- 4 Risk Analysis Techniques -- CORPS FRAMEWORK -- NATURAL VARIABILITY AND IMPERFECT KNOWLEDGE -- RISK ANALYSIS -- MONTE CARLO SIMULATION -- ASSESSMENT OF ENGINEERING PERFORMANCE -- GEOTECHNICAL RELIABILITY -- 5 Case Studies -- BEARGRASS CREEK -- Flood Damage Reduction Measures -- Damage Reaches -- Flood Hydrology -- Rainfall-Runoff Model -- Uncertainty in Flood Discharge -- River Hydraulics -- Uncertainty in Flood Stage -- Economic Analysis -- Uncertainty in Flood Damage -- Project Planning -- Evaluation of Project Alternatives -- Risk of Flooding -- Effect on Project Economics of Including Risk and Uncertainty -- RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AT EAST GRAND FORKS, MINNESOTA, AND GRAND FORKS, NORTH DAKOTA -- Risk Analysis -- Discharge-Frequency Relationships -- Elevation-Discharge Relationships -- Risk and Uncertainty Analysis Results -- Project Reliability -- 6 Evaluation and Proposed Improvements.

CONCERNS WITH THE RISK ANALYSIS METHODS -- ENGINEERING PERFORMANCE -- Knowledge Uncertainty -- HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS -- Parameter Uncertainty for the LP3 Distribution -- Neglecting Skew Uncertainty -- Errors in Flood Frequency Curves Derived from Rainfall-Runoff Modeling -- Errors in the Stage-Discharge Relationship -- GEOTECHNICAL RELIABILITY -- ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE -- INTERDEPENDENCE IN RISK ANALYSIS FOR FLOOD DAMAGE ASSESSMENT -- CORRELATION LENGTH -- SPATIAL AGGREGATION -- COMPUTATIONAL ALTERNATIVES TO MINIMIZE CORRELATION EFFECTS -- Determine the Scale of Randomization -- Introduce Correlation in Monte Carlo Simulation -- Randomize Structures Jointly -- Randomize Hydrology and Hydraulics for River Reaches -- Analyze Statistical Variability in Project Benefits Rather than Damage -- Statistically Compare Net Benefits from Alternative Plans -- 7 Levee Certification -- HISTORY OF LEVEE CERTIFICATION -- CURRENT CERTIFICATION CRITERION -- ANALYSIS OF LEVEE SIZING CRITERIA -- TECHNICAL CORRECTIONS TO THE CURRENT CERTIFICATION PROCEDURE -- AN ALTERNATIVE CRITERION: A LONGER-TERM CHANGE -- 8 Conclusions and Recommendations -- RISK ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES -- Risk Measures and Modeling -- Economics -- CONSISTENT TERMINOLOGY -- LEVEE CERTIFICATION -- FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT -- References -- Appendix A Glossary -- Appendix B Corps-FEMA Levee Certification Documentation -- Appendix C Economic and Environmental Principles for Water Related Land Resources Implementation Studies -- Appendix D Functions of Random Variables -- Appendix E Biographical Information -- STAFF.