PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA -- Contents -- Earthquake prediction: The scientific challenge -- Earthquake prediction: The interaction of public policy and science -- CLASSIFICATIONS -- LONG-TERM PHENOMENA -- INTERMEDIATE-TERM PHENOMENA -- SHORT-TERM PHENOMENA -- DISCUSSION -- CONCLUSIONS -- Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy -- SHORT-TERM STRAIN PRECURSORS -- VARIATIONS IN SLIP BEHAVIOR -- TRIGGERING -- A STRATEGY FOR SEISMIC HAZARD MITIGATION -- Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction -- EARTHQUAKES IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA -- LARGE EVENTS AS A QUASI-PERIODIC PROCESS -- RECENT BUILDUP OF ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA -- DISCUSSION AND SUMMARY -- Scale dependence in earthquake phenomena and its relevance to earthquake prediction -- THREE-DIMENSIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE 1992 LANDERS EARTHQUAKE FAULT ZONE -- SEISMIC CODA WAVES -- INTRODUCING CODA Q (OR CODA Q−1) -- PHYSICAL MEANING OF CODA Q−1 -- GEOGRAPHIC VARIATION IN CODA Q -- TEMPORAL CHANGE IN CODA Q -- DISCUSSION -- Intermediate-term earthquake prediction -- FOUR PARADIGMS -- PREDICTION ALGORITHMS -- ALGORITHM M8 -- ALGORITHM CN -- ALGORITHM MENDOCINO SCENARIO -- PREDICTION OF THE NEXT STRONG EARTHQUAKE (34-37) -- SINGLE PREMONITORY SEISMICITY PATTERNS -- DISCUSSION -- A selective phenomenology of the seismicity of Southern California -- THE MAGNITUDE-FREQUENCY LAW -- LARGE EARTHQUAKES -- SPATIAL FLUCTUATIONS -- SMALL EARTHQUAKES: "THE G-R OR CHARACTERISTIC EARTHQUAKE DISTRIBUTION, WHICH IS IT?" -- SPACE-TIME FLUCTUATIONS -- STRESS FLUCTUATIONS AND THE FRACTURE PROCESS -- SUMMARY -- The repetition of large-earthquake ruptures -- EXAMPLES OF CHARACTERISTIC SLIP -- INTERACTION OF SLIP PATCHES -- EDGE EFFECTS, PATCH INTERACTION AND LEAKY PATCH BOUNDARIES.

HISTORY OF THE SOUTHERN SAN ANDREAS FAULT -- LARGE VARIATION IN AMOUNT OF CHARACTERISTIC SLIP -- DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction -- SINGLE PREDICTION -- MULTIPLE PREDICTIONS -- PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION -- PREDICTIONS BASED ON RATE-DENSITY MAPS -- DISCUSSION -- What electrical measurements can say about changes in fault systems -- LOMA PRIETA -- PALMDALE -- Geochemical challenge to earthquake prediction -- Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction -- RATE- AND STATE-DEPENDENT FRICTION -- RELATIONSHIP TO OTHER CONSTITUTIVE CHARACTERIZATIONS -- UNSTABLE FAULT SLIP -- EARTHQUAKE NUCLEATION -- EFFECT OF STRESS CHANGES ON SEISMIC ACTIVITY -- FORESHOCKS -- DISCUSSION -- Nonuniformity of the constitutive law parameters for shear rupture and quasistatic nucleation to dynamic rupture: A physical… -- CONSTITUTIVE LAW FOR SHEAR RUPTURE -- BREAKDOWN ZONE AND A SCALING PARAMETER -- NUCLEATION PROCESS OF UNSTABLE, DYNAMIC RUPTURE -- EARTHQUAKE RUPTURE NUCLEATION AND IMMEDIATE PRECURSORS -- Rock friction and its implications for earthquake prediction examined via models of Parkfield earthquakes -- REVIEW OF ROCK FRICTION BEHAVIOR -- IMPLICATIONS OF INSTABILITY MODEL OF PARKFIELD EARTHQUAKES FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION -- Slip complexity in earthquake fault models -- SMOOTH FAULT MODELING -- SOME SIMULATION RESULTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR COMPLEXITY -- STRONGLY HETEROGENEOUS FAULTS AND INHERENTLY DISCRETE MODELS -- CONCLUSIONS -- APPENDIX: FURTHER NOTES ON ELASTODYNAMIC METHODOLOGY -- Dynamic friction and the origin of the complexity of earthquake sources -- DEFINITION OF THE MODEL -- FRICTION LAW -- SIMULATION OF SEISMICITY ON A FINITE FAULT -- CONCLUSIONS -- Slip complexity in dynamic models of earthquake faults -- The organization of seismicity on fault networks -- HOMOGENEOUS FAULTS.

THE INFLUENCE OF GEOMETRY -- TWO COUPLED FAULTS -- INTERMEDIATE TIME SCALE -- SUMMARY -- Geometric incompatibility in a fault system -- GEOMETRIC INCOMPATIBILITY FOR A SINGLE JUNCTION -- GEOMETRIC INCOMPATIBILITY FOR A SYSTEM OF FAULTS WITH MULTIPLE JUNCTIONS -- APPLICATION TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FAULT JUNCTIONS -- DISCUSSION -- APPENDIX: INCOMPATIBILITIES FOR DEFORMABLE AND ROTATING BLOCKS.